Rate AZ-06 in 2024

[MargieCat]

Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. A Democratic challenger.

Likely to be a rematch of 2022 with Kirsten Engel as the Democratic nominee.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt D.

Ciscomani's 2022 performance really wasn't anything impressive, only winning by 1.5% in a seat that was a virtual tie in 2020 Pres.

The seat has also generally been shifting left, and I'd expect Biden to do better here than he did in 2020.

One thing that helps Ciscomani is he's deviated from the bulk of the GOP on a few votes, but I don't think that's enough to cause any type of massive overperformance. Historically, Tucson's suburbs have been unique cause it's often the D House candidate who outruns Pres numbers (in most left-shifting suburbs, the D tends to run a bit behind the Pres numbers).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean R, Biden+0.3 seat with a rematch isn't a smart decision for Dems considering Ciscomani is much better compared than what the AZGOP is churning out these days. They need to find a charismatic hispanic candidate, a lot of people are getting sick of the white suburban women trope they've been embracing since 2018.

[wesmoorenerd]

Tilt R. Super marginal seat that Ciscomani won by more than Biden did. He seems like a somewhat above average incumbent. Engel seems fine, and I think she's definitely capable of winning, but I would put Ciscomani down as a slim favorite (unlike Schweikert, who's probably an underdog.)