CA - 48

[Hatman 🍁]

I just read on wikipedia that this seat is vacant, and there will be a special election on December 6 with the open primary on October 4.

The district is in the heart of Orange County, and the GOP won with 65% here last time. Any comments?

[Sam Spade]

This seat leans fairly Republican (let me say 75%-25%), even though it has been trending Democrat slowly at the Presidential level.  It is a wealthy CD (in Orange County) and fairly stable, unlike the recent Ohio CD.  Still anything can happen in a special election.

There will be about 20 candidates in the primary runoff, IIRC.

[socaldem]

I just read on wikipedia that this seat is vacant, and there will be a special election on December 6 with the open primary on October 4.

The district is in the heart of Orange County, and the GOP won with 65% here last time. Any comments?

See my comments in the open seat thread...

The main contenders are State Sen. Tom Campbell, the frontrunner....remember that CA state senate districts have like 800,000 people in them so he already has incumbent-like name recognition... 

He's facing social issues moderate Marilyn Brewer and American Independent Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrest in a Louisiana-style primary.  The district is definitely heavily Republican, but is, indeed, moderate on issues like abortion and gay rights... the immigration issue is a big wildcard where Campbell has some vulnerability to a Gilchrest attack... if Campbell is weakened by Gilchrest on that issue, could Marilyn sneak in with a coalition of moderate dems and mainstream Republicans?