Will any Republican incumbents lose in the general?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes Garcia will lose in CA and perhaps Ron Johnson, Johnson doesn't have 60% Approvals he has a 37 Approval like Oz that's why Cook has WI and PA as Tossups

[coloradocowboi]

Mayra Flores most likely, after last night. I would say Mike Garcia, but idiot democrats had to go nominate Christy Smith again lol

[One Term Floridian]

I can think of a couple CA incumbents who are probably scared of losing re-election this year... If not a single GOP incumbent goes down that's the sign of a tsunami honestly.

[One Term Floridian]

Mayra Flores most likely, after last night. I would say Mike Garcia, but idiot democrats had to go nominate Christy Smith again lol

Mike Garcia is hilariously going to get entrenched at this rate lmao what is up with the Dem voters up there wanting to spam vote for Christy Smith even though she's already lost twice to Garcia...

Imagine Russ Feingold or Ted Strickland running again this year LOL

[coloradocowboi]

Mayra Flores most likely, after last night. I would say Mike Garcia, but idiot democrats had to go nominate Christy Smith again lol

Mike Garcia is hilariously going to get entrenched at this rate lmao what is up with the Dem voters up there wanting to spam vote for Christy Smith even though she's already lost twice to Garcia...

Imagine Russ Feingold or Ted Strickland running again this year LOL

And he is so far to the right of his district, it really should be easy for Dems... I was personally hoping for a Katie Hill come back.

[One Term Floridian]

Mayra Flores most likely, after last night. I would say Mike Garcia, but idiot democrats had to go nominate Christy Smith again lol

Mike Garcia is hilariously going to get entrenched at this rate lmao what is up with the Dem voters up there wanting to spam vote for Christy Smith even though she's already lost twice to Garcia...

Imagine Russ Feingold or Ted Strickland running again this year LOL

And he is so far to the right of his district, it really should be easy for Dems... I was personally hoping for a Katie Hill come back.

Same here. She's unfortunately very much done with politics. Not that I blame her.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Garcia ever lose?

[MarkD]

My guesses:
Sen. Ron Johnson
Reps. Mayra Flores, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Michelle Steele, and Steve Chabot.
Possibly Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will Garcia ever lose?

Considering how blue his district is, his district should be at least D in any year that is half decent for Dems and where they run a better canidate. The fact he's vulnerable in 2022 despite a lot working in his favour means he's likely to be very vulnerable going forwards if he survives.

[Joseph Cao]

Tenous yes here, but only because in every midterm, there's always that one district that bucks the trend. Don't know who it is this cycle though.

Paging Florida's 2nd District -- 2014. 

Has to be one of the more stunning anti-flips (a flip that occurs for the party in the White House) that's happened in the last 20 years, right?

How did Gwen Graham do it ?

Golden last name (and Bob campaigned for her), very district-focused campaign, FL-2 only flipped recently and still had residual D strength, and Southerland made a few major gaffes to do with women although nothing Akin-tier.

[Minnesota Mike]

Mayra Flores is now at the top of the list of possibilities. In the Senate, Ron Johnson.

[ProgressiveModerate]

To anyone who says no, this is statistically close to impossible unless you're expecting something greater than R + 7ish (which also is possible), especially with the addition of Flores.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Leaning no, but if any do it'll be Flores, Valadao or Chabot.
I think Garcia is quite heavily favored and a lot of people are underestimating him.

[Politician]

Flores is probably an underdog right now, and Valadao/Garcia are only barely favored. Chabot, Meijer, and Herrell are favored but could still be upset if their opponent runs a great campaign.

[MT Treasurer]

I expect at least 1 but no more than 3 of them to lose, and I don’t think Flores losing before any of the others (esp. Chabot, Garcia, Meijer, and Valadao) is guaranteed.

I also think Don Bacon should be included in the list of vulnerable Republican incumbents. You could make a case that he’s more vulnerable than Terrell.

[Xing]

My guess would be just Flores right now, though it's possible that one more loses (Chabot and/or Garcia would be the next to lose.)

[LabourJersey]

My guess is Flores and Valadao for now. Maybe Garcia but I'm not so sure.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My guess is Flores and Valadao for now. Maybe Garcia but I'm not so sure.

Garcia won in a Biden district in 2020, and redistricting has moved the district way less than the NPV will shift. I think Garcia likely wins.