Montgomery County, Texas

[mileslunn]

Why is Montgomery County still voting over 70% Trump even though most other suburbs swung left?  When George W. Bush was leader made sense as he was quite popular in Texas suburbs, but under Trump they either went for Biden or Trump by much narrower margin?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Firstly it has swung pretty hard to the left.

Also the county is really largely an exurb, with only some of the southern bits being true suburbs. In these areas Trump often falls below 60%

From what I understand this is the kinda place a lot of top oil folks live which is obviously a. Dosfavourable group to Dems, and also political and racial sorting in Houston is very strong; these suburbs are extremely white. I’d say it’s not all that different from how red Cherokee or Forsyth counties in GA are.

Republicans are probably going to fall hard in the county in the coming decades assuming Houston continues to grow

[Schiff for Senate]

Fun fact about Montgomery County: it gave Trump his highest raw vote margin of any county in the US in 2020.

Firstly it has swung pretty hard to the left.

Also the county is really largely an exurb, with only some of the southern bits being true suburbs. In these areas Trump often falls below 60%

From what I understand this is the kinda place a lot of top oil folks live which is obviously a. Dosfavourable group to Dems, and also political and racial sorting in Houston is very strong; these suburbs are extremely white. I’d say it’s not all that different from how red Cherokee or Forsyth counties in GA are.

Republicans are probably going to fall hard in the county in the coming decades assuming Houston continues to grow

This post is spot on. Like you said, it's not quite as obvious at first glance because Montgomery is still blood red, but it's swung to the left massively in the Trump era, like the other suburban and exurban counties in TX and other parts of the nation. It was more than Romney+60 in 2012; in 2020 Trump won by less than 45. It's basically very right-wing and homogenous suburbs and exurbs of Houston. It's not even all that populous - just 620,000 people, a lot less than what you might expect, and it's entirely in one CD. It's swung leftwards, but it's still so heavily GOP that it doesn't get talked about nearly as much as TX's (sub)urban purple counties that became blue (Harris, for instance - it very narrowly stuck with Obama in 2012 but is now quite comfortably Democratic presidentially) and red counties that became purple (Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Hays, Williamson - three of these are Trump-Biden counties, and the two DFW-area counties that went red in 2020 swung 27 and 23.5 points Democratic from 2012 to 2020).

[dpmapper]

Despite the percentage swing, it is worth noting that Trump's actual vote margin in Montgomery in 2020 was more than Romney's in 2012 due to massive growth. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Despite the percentage swing, it is worth noting that Trump's actual vote margin in Montgomery in 2020 was more than Romney's in 2012 due to massive growth. 

This is an almost universally true statement for just about anywhere in the country

[dpmapper]

Despite the percentage swing, it is worth noting that Trump's actual vote margin in Montgomery in 2020 was more than Romney's in 2012 due to massive growth. 

This is an almost universally true statement for just about anywhere in the country

OK, but it's also true that Trump's 2020 margin was greater than Trump's 2016 margin. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Despite the percentage swing, it is worth noting that Trump's actual vote margin in Montgomery in 2020 was more than Romney's in 2012 due to massive growth. 

This is an almost universally true statement for just about anywhere in the country

OK, but it's also true that Trump's 2020 margin was greater than Trump's 2016 margin. 

Fair enough. Kinda the inverse of what we saw in a lot of blue minority cities that shifted right. I suspect it’ll kinda flatline in terms of netting  votes as growth and trends cancel out.

[Tintrlvr]

Despite the percentage swing, it is worth noting that Trump's actual vote margin in Montgomery in 2020 was more than Romney's in 2012 due to massive growth. 

This is an almost universally true statement for just about anywhere in the country

OK, but it's also true that Trump's 2020 margin was greater than Trump's 2016 margin. 

Turnout was so much higher in 2020 than 2016 that it’s still not an apples-to-apples comparison. Controlling for turnout as a percentage of registered or eligible voters, Trump’s vote margin was down.

[Del Tachi]

Also the county is really largely an exurb, with only some of the southern bits being true suburbs. In these areas Trump often falls below 60%

Contrast Montgomery with Fort Bend (TX) or Gwinnett (GA), which are also mostly exurban.  There are low-brow, more diverse exurbs that Lean D and then there are rich, White exurbs (like Forsyth, GA) that Lean R.

The suburban-vs-exurban dynamic is overwrought for this reason.  Montgomery is unlike Fort Bend or Gwinnett only because of how much more White it is.   

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also the county is really largely an exurb, with only some of the southern bits being true suburbs. In these areas Trump often falls below 60%

Contrast Montgomery with Fort Bend (TX) or Gwinnett (GA), which are also mostly exurban.  There are low-brow, more diverse exurbs that Lean D and then there are rich, White exurbs (like Forsyth, GA) that Lean R.

The suburban-vs-exurban dynamic is overwrought for this reason.  Montgomery is unlike Fort Bend or Gwinnett only because of how much more White it is.   

I agree, though basically all of Gwinnett is pretty built up by now and Fort Bend becomes rural quite quickly whereas Montgomery is a smoother transition from suburban to rural.

Diversification is a large and underrated reason why a lot of suburbs have gotten so much bluer revently. Even Forsyth is starting to see a notable Asian population

[Smash255]

Also the county is really largely an exurb, with only some of the southern bits being true suburbs. In these areas Trump often falls below 60%

Contrast Montgomery with Fort Bend (TX) or Gwinnett (GA), which are also mostly exurban.  There are low-brow, more diverse exurbs that Lean D and then there are rich, White exurbs (like Forsyth, GA) that Lean R.

The suburban-vs-exurban dynamic is overwrought for this reason.  Montgomery is unlike Fort Bend or Gwinnett only because of how much more White it is.   

Gwinnett is pretty well developed  at this point, it is not really exurban anymore.  Fort Bend is also a bit more suburban than Montgomery, generally a better commute to Downtown Houston and is more educated (Gwinnett is as well, but the gap isn't as large)

Overall its a combination of factors, Montgomery is whiter, less educated, more exurban and a bit more tied to the oil industry. 

[Del Tachi]

A lot of this depends on how you actually define an exurb vis-a-vis a suburb

Exurbs do not eventually "become" suburbs as they grow/densify; the delineation between the two has more to do with when and how the communities were planned/built.  Another thing that distinguishes exurbs from suburbs is that very few people in exurbs are commuting into the high-density core (i.e., "downtown") for work, instead mostly working in peripheral edge cities. 

[Schiff for Senate]

A lot of this depends on how you actually define an exurb vis-a-vis a suburb

Basically this. I feel like Fort Bend County is suburban and Montgomery County is exurban. You may disagree and that's very fair.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Montgomery County still voting over 70% Trump even though most other suburbs swung left?

jmfcst lives there.