Is 2024 NPV safe D?
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  Is 2024 NPV safe D?		 « previous next »
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Question: ?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Author Topic: Is 2024 NPV safe D?  (Read 1421 times)
TheReckoning
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 28, 2022, 11:15:44 PM »
Not by margin, but probability of winning it
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2022, 11:51:22 PM »
Not necessarily, prolly Lean D for now. It would have to be a Biden implosion but frankly if Biden was up in 2022 it could be competitive.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM »
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?
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patzer
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2022, 07:06:04 AM »
I’d say it’s Likely D but not Safe.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2022, 10:14:58 AM »
It’s Likely D if Trump is the nominee again. If DeSantis is the nominee it’s going to be highly competitive.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2022, 08:52:27 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2022, 09:05:04 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

Trump had the exact same APPROVALS, Rassy had Trump at 45(54 and Biden at 45/54 and all the swing state polls AZ, NV, NH and GA D's are leading in 50/45, why because black and brown and female voters are underpolling

Trump held onto the red wall and D's will do the same with the blue wall

It's so hilarious that Rs are critique Biden Approvals and Trump was never at 50, we're still in a Pandemic no Congress or Pez even if Rs get Control will have steller Approvals, D's did so well in 2020 due to enhanced Stimulus checks that Rs opposed they blocked child tax credit
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2022, 09:39:37 PM »
No, I'm actually expecting a Republican NPV win in 2024.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2022, 10:34:05 PM »
I'd the Rs get control of the H and not do anything it's gonna hurt the NATL ticket in 2024, they are only advantage because they're the out party what happened at 2017/2019 when Rs took over they lost in 2018/ D's always do better with Rs in control
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2022, 04:33:57 AM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
Trump actually has charisma
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2022, 09:15:56 AM »
Quote from: patzer on May 29, 2022, 07:06:04 AM
I’d say it’s Likely D but not Safe.

Yup.

A strong GOP candidate could win the NPV for the first time since 2004 and even become the first non-incumbent to do so since 1988 should Biden's standing further deteriorate. However, the Dem trending of TX and CA's massive blue leaning make it hard, albeit far from impossible, for a GOP candidate to win the most votes in a presidential election.
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MarkD
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2022, 11:16:50 AM »
Quote from: patzer on May 29, 2022, 07:06:04 AM
I’d say it’s Likely D but not Safe.
^^^
He beat me to it.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2022, 03:22:14 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 30, 2022, 04:33:57 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
Trump actually has charisma
Who actually won the popular vote?
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2022, 09:42:20 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...

You’re not really making the case considering he  still lost the popular vote handily (and by more than he did 4 years ago) with those low approvals.

Anyways, I’d say lean D because I think an incumbent is always favored until proven otherwise. But it’s by no means a guarantee. The people who say otherwise are the same people who mocked a Trump candidacy in 2015 and cried when he impossibly beat Clinton in 2016
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Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2022, 10:28:14 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 30, 2022, 04:33:57 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
Trump actually has charisma

He also had even more powerful negative charisma.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2022, 10:37:08 PM »
     Not even close. Dems have an advantage that cannot be overlooked, but Biden needs to get his approvals back into positive territory before it can be called safe.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2022, 11:23:03 AM »
No, but I'd rate it at least Lean D, possibly Likely D (which is in line with a Toss-Up race in the EC.) If the PV looks like it could go Republican, then Democrats are losing the EC very badly.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2022, 02:28:19 PM »
Quote from: Utah Neolib on May 30, 2022, 03:22:14 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 30, 2022, 04:33:57 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
Trump actually has charisma
Who actually won the popular vote?
Which party is currently bleeding critical demographics of support which put its electability into question???exactly.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2022, 02:29:34 PM »
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 31, 2022, 02:28:19 PM
Quote from: Utah Neolib on May 30, 2022, 03:22:14 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 30, 2022, 04:33:57 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
Trump actually has charisma
Who actually won the popular vote?
Which party is currently bleeding critical demographics of support which put its electability into question???exactly.
None of us know the future exactly, except for maybe Olakwandi.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2022, 03:12:43 PM »
Quote from: Utah Neolib on May 31, 2022, 02:29:34 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 31, 2022, 02:28:19 PM
Quote from: Utah Neolib on May 30, 2022, 03:22:14 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 30, 2022, 04:33:57 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on May 29, 2022, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: EastwoodS on May 29, 2022, 06:21:16 AM
No, the PV is tilt R right now
I expect massive shifts everywhere and enough shifts in places where a PV win is needed. Have you seen this man and his party and his approval ratings ?

LOL

Could have said the same thing in 2018 and still he nearly won...
Trump actually has charisma
Who actually won the popular vote?
Which party is currently bleeding critical demographics of support which put its electability into question???exactly.
None of us know the future exactly, except for maybe Olakwandi.
Ok, yeah, true
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2022, 03:41:53 PM »
Quote from: America Needs Jesus Christ on May 29, 2022, 09:39:37 PM
No, I'm actually expecting a Republican NPV win in 2024.

It's cute you think most people in this country agree with you that women are subhuman.
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AGA
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« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2022, 04:43:16 PM »
Nope. Republicans are probably going to win the congressional PV by a few points this year, so why couldn't they win the popular vote in 2024?
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dw93
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« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2022, 05:38:16 PM »
Safe D with Trump as the R nominee (though on a good night for the R's he could make it close), likely/lean D with someone else.
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