Rank the new Dem senators from most to least vulnerable in 2012

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

1-Tester

Mostly due to the fact that Rehnberg can challenge him and he'll probably vote too liberal for the state. But even then he can win if he keeps a good connection with the state like Baucus. But it'll be tough, especially in a presidential year if he could barely beat CONRAD BURNS.

2-Webb

The state is trending left and he's moderate, but still might be too liberal. We'll see.

3-McCaskill

Missouri likes incumbent moderate senators, but races are usually close. Depends a lot on the candidate

4-Brown

He's too liberal for the state theoretically but since his focus is primarily on trade issues, he could develop a niche here. Still vulnerable.

5-Klobuchar

I'm pretty sure Pawlenty will run against her. But if she's a more effective Senator than Mark Dayton, she should be favored. I'm really hoping Bachmann pulls a Katherine Harris.

6-Menendez

His approval ratings will be crap throughout his whole term and he still wins easily. Watch.

7-Casey

Assuming he runs for reelection. Otherwise it depends all on who he appoints to his seat. But I have a tough time believing he'll lose if he runs.

8-Cardin

Steele didn't do that great, and that's still as close as the GOP is ever going to get.

9-Whitehouse

Senator for life. He owns this seat as long as he wants it and will never have any problems.

[nclib]

You listed Whitehouse but not Sanders, Cardin, or Corker. Are you making any distinction between them?

Anyway, I think Webb is more vulnerable than Tester.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oops, I forgot about Cardin. The other two aren't Democrats.

[TheresNoMoney]

1) McCaskill- She'll probably get a tough challenge from a Republican.

2) Brown- If Ohio tilts back to the Republicans a little.

3) Tester- I put him here, but I think he's going to be a rock star and extremely popular. Rehberg might give him a good challenge.

I view all the others as pretty safe.

[Sam Spade]

Who knows?

[Verily]

I think Tester will be as popular as Baucus and basically impossible to unseat (the Olympia Snowe of Montana, if you will).

I suspect McCaskill will be the most vulnerable; hers is the only state definitively trending right. The Republicans will also have a fairly wide pool to select from to challenge her while the choices in a small state like Montana are limited (and I personally don't think Rehberg will risk his career challenging an incumbent), and the Republicans are crippled for a good decade in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

1. McCaskill
2. Menendez (if only in a primary)
3. Webb
4. Brown
5. Casey
6. Tester
7. Cardin
8. Klobuchar
9. Whitehouse

[socaldem]

New Senators by order of vulnerability:

1. McCaskill
2. Webb
3. Corker
4. Tester
5. Klobuchar
6. Brown
7. Menendez
8. Casey (he probably won't run)
9. Cardin/Whitehouse/Sanders (senators for life)

I think that this Democratic class is actually quite strong. 

Brown may be too liberal for his state, but I think he's a very savvy politician and has a brand of population that works well in Ohio.  He also won by a very convincing margin and I don't see any Ohio GOPers that are in a position, or anywhere near a position, from which they could challenge him...

I'm not sure about Tester.  The race against Conrad Burns was awfully close and Burns was as "damaged goods" as one can get.  If Rehberg runs, it will be very, very close.  Thune-Daschle/Johnson close and will proably depend on the national dynamics whether there are Presidential coattails or not.  I think he may be in for a tough reelection in 2010 but if he survives that, he'll be set.

I really think Webb is well-positioned, ideologically, for the state.  Virginia, though, has a fairly strong Republican bench from which GOPers can get a challenger.  And sleighing Allen, even with his foot-in-mouth disease, is no small feat.

McCaskill, too, strikes me as extraordinarily bright and energetic--someone who is going to figure out how to maintain popularity in a state like MO.  In 2012, Gov. Jay Nixon will probably have reelection coattails.  I think the GOP has a few solid candidates they can put up against her, though.  Congresswoman JoAnn Emerson and Treasurer Sarah Steelman would be very formidable.

I think Klobuchar could have some trouble.  She's really not the most poised senator and if she had to face Tim Pawlenty, I think she'd have a tough time of it.  She'd be slightly favored, though, because of the lean of the state.

Corker may have a hard time against Phil Brehedson if he were to decide to run.  I think he could be very vulnerable...

[Gustaf]

Corker seems like one of the least vulnerable. If he didn't lose this year in an open seat against Ford, why would he ever lose?

Menendez, Cardin, Casey, Klobuchar and Whitehouse I don't really worry about. Tester, Webb and McCaskill I do and Brown I hope loses. But the last four seems to have potential for competitive races.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Corker seems like one of the least vulnerable. If he didn't lose this year in an open seat against Ford, why would he ever lose?

Have a look at the county map for this years Gubernatorial election in Tennessee.

[opebo]

Vulnerable:

1. McCaskill
2. Tester

Moderately vulnerable:

3. Webb

Not very vulnerable at all:

4. Brown
5. Casey
6.  Menendez
7. Klobuchar
8. Cardin
9. Whitehouse

[Gustaf]

Corker seems like one of the least vulnerable. If he didn't lose this year in an open seat against Ford, why would he ever lose?

Have a look at the county map for this years Gubernatorial election in Tennessee.

Ok, I guess so...but Bredesen might run for the Alexander seat in 2008...or do something else. But yes, if he actually runs for the seat in 2012, then I agree Corker would definitely be in trouble.

[Alcon]

2-Webb

The state is trending left

(Sort of) hate to pick on you, but just because a state has trended left doesn't mean this will continue, especially enough to matter in all but the closest elections.

[Soaring Eagle]

I would rank them:

1-McCaskill
2-Menendez
3-Tester
4-Webb
5-Brown
6-Casey
7-Cardin
8-Klobuchar
9-Whitehouse

[© tweed]

1. Brown
2. Tester

3. McCaskill
4. Webb - Virginia will be a very different state in 2012 than it is now...

5. Klobuchar
6. Cardin - kinda a pathetic dude, in a normal year he might have lost
7. Menendez
8. Casey

9. Whitehouse

[mgrossbe]

1. Tester - it will and will always be a rep state in pres election wich includes the 2012 election, though rehnberg will not run, kinda of like castle next cycle, there is a bench in MT.

2. McCaskill - MO and IA are the pupleist(if that is a word) of the states and it really will depend on the climate. Based on record talent and app num. he should have never lost. No matter who holds the seat it will be contested.

3. casey - well casey seat, he will run for governor if rendell does not take his seat then it will be a toss up behind MO, IA, CO, PA is the most closely diveded state.

4. Webb - he is a former rep and that should help him along with his milatary background but unless the state trends dem, espcially if it turns dem under bayh and richderson adm then it will be a contested race but if the latter duo is the top ticket i would not worry. Webb will be in the forefront of our exodus from iraq and will be seen as an inspirational leader in that fight.

5. Brown - his econimic populism and the nature of ohio will keep him in office. Dewine got F-ed in his election otherwise ohio loves to reelect people no matter there screwups, i could spend days on why vionivich was a horrible gov. yet he is a senator for life, i have a feeling if brown can build up a base in north central ohio no one can beat him.

6. Kloubachar - she should be vuanarble she is the most liberal member of the dems elected that is not a self proclaimed socialist(sanders.) However, she is a savy pol. and well be sure to bring home the bacon, as someone stated earlier if the gov goes against her it will be a race however if that wingnut from the sixth goes against her wlecome senator for life kloubchar, she just got to get througth the 2012.

7. Menedez - there is two ways he leaves office one to take the governorship and two under indictment. Sorry down but you will be on your death bed before you see a rep for senate for the NJ delagation, maybe a move would be in order but hey its up to you.

Cardin - thank you for a permant postion and a permant pention, ie senator for life.

Whitehouse - senator for life once again thank you

Sanders - behind brown and tester and leahy my favorite democrat not from my state will be there until he decides he wants to leave. Bayh(the true presidential frontrunner) is my number one dem but stupid primaries will keep out the domination that a bayh/obama ticket will give us(fyi 16 years baby)



Cocker - life if he can beat bresden(if he does not take out alexander.) either way we will see this guy for years to come.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

6. Kloubachar - she should be vuanarble she is the most liberal member of the dems elected that is not a self proclaimed socialist(sanders.)

As much as I'd love it if this was true, it's not.

The reason I'm quite confident Pawlenty will run is he initially wanted to run against Wellstone in 2002. The plan was for him to run and Coleman to run for governor. However the national Republican party believed Coleman was the stronger candidate, and just before he started filing he got a call from Cheney telling him to bow out and convinced him and Coleman to trade places. I also doubt Pawlenty will run for reelection in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Where would you all put Bill Nelson, Cantwell and Stabenow btw?

I'd actually put Nelson right below Webb. He really lucked out with the GOP candidate this time.

I'd put Stabenow and Cantwell around Casey. They shouldn't have any seriously contested reelections, or even half-seriously like this time.

[Keystone Phil]

How the hell is Menendez more vulnerable than Casey? Let's say Casey doesn't run for Governor and decides to run for re-election. 2012 is a Presidential election year with the GOP having a much better shot at making PA closer than NJ which will help down ticket races. The GOP certainly won't let Casey go especially in a Presidential election year. Casey would be more likely to go than Menendez and even Klobuchar.

[mgrossbe]

Well as far as stabenow and cantwell are concerned they are now safe imho but of course the climate in 2012 will be the determinate factor. For nelson sake he is now a popular two term incumbant and will take a lot to dislodge him if he can bring home the bacon so to speak he should be safe. Cantwell is now a incumbant for life stabnow lives in a swing state that tilts dems so she will always be under some scrunity but in my anylsis of elections women are harder to dislodge than men this bodes well for her.  In concern to kloubchar how is she less liberal than brown or tester you could easily make the arguement against sanders and i would agree whole heartdly however agaisnt the rest she seems to be the most liberal, which is imo is a great thing. Cardin and Whitehouse will never face serious opp. for the rest of their terms brown is liberal and populist my favorite type of dem but that fits the state well. He has a solid base in my old stomping grounds and when strickland takes on vioinivich(yuck) he(strickland) will win. the other tester and mccaskil are always going to face tought reelection bids but baucus does now and he is a very popular senator. Casey retireing will be the best chance for the reps to pick up these seats. But any reitirment out of the kennedy or difi will leave a contested seat. Carper and Biggenman seats are the first that come to mind but anyone of the none blue state seats will be. On another note when is menedez seat supposed to be up. is it this year or will he have to run again in 2-4 years.

[DownWithTheLeft]

1. James Webb

If George Allen would never ignited the macaca firestorm, Webb would have lost by 20 and no one would ever talk about him.  He would have been in Katherine Harris territory.  Assuming the GOP can find a formidable candidate to run (Wolfe possibly if he doesnt in 08), Webb will be the Rick Santorum of 2012

2. Bob Menendez

Bob Menendez will definetly not skate by in 2012 because even if he does not go to jail, (which is a strong possiblity), his most likely awful approval ratings will cause someone like Bob Andrews or Steve Rothman to challenge him, especially if Christie, Kean, Murphy, etc. wins in 08' or 09'.  He would have to like Chafee this year pull of two victories, and I don't see that happening.  The chance this seat stays Dem is good, the change that Dem is Bob Menendez is not.

3. Claire McCaskill

McCaskill will be in trouble simply because it is MO and I'm sure they can find a good Republican challenger.  If not for the wave, Talent would have won here and probably should have still.

4. Jon Tester

Though I expect Denny Rehburg to unseat Max Baucus in 2008, Fmr. Gov. Racicot would still present a formidable challenge to Jon Tester.  Tester barely squeaked out a win against a senator in Conrad Burns that:
1.) It was a wave year
2.) Was linked to Jack Abramoff
3.) Often shoots his mouth off
Tester will most likely lose in 2012.

5. Sherrod Brown

If the OH GOP can get back on track by 2012, which I suspect they will, I see no reason why a strong challenge from someone like Steve Chabot would not be able to unseat Brown, although he should be the favorite.

6. Amy Kloubchar

I list this seat here for two reasons.  If Pawlently runs it goes much higher, if he does not Klobuchar is a senator for at least another six years, thought I'd rate it in the middle.

7. Bob Casey Jr.

Bob Casey will most likely be the governor, but either way barring Santorum winning the governor's race or a run from a stronger candidate, this seat stays Dem.

Life Time Senators:

Cardin and Whitehouse

[Frodo]

2-Webb

The state is trending left and he's moderate, but he still might be too liberal.  We'll see.

The key operative words here.

Until we see how Webb votes over the intervening six years between now and 2012 (and how various interest groups rates him on those votes), lets hold off on predicting his imminent doom.  If he votes as a moderately populist-leaning conservative Democrat (at least as far as gay marriage and gun control are concerned) and avoids getting himself embroiled in scandals while as senator he should be fine, and any Republican challenger will therefore have an uphill struggle in trying to unseat him if and when he decides to run for a second term.