Which counties do you think…

[iceman]

which counties do you think will vote republican for the first time this year since several decades of voting DEM?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Possibly Jackson County IL

[iceman]

Possibly Jackson County IL

It voted for Rauner in 2014

[GregTheGreat657]

Carlton and Lake counties, Minnesota

[iceman]

I’m thinking Green County and Portage County, Wisconsin would probably vote GOP this year.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Bill Lee carries Haywood County this year.  Granted, both Haslam and Alexander won it in 2014 during their landslides (Haslam swept all 95 counties, and Alexander won Shelby, only losing Davidson).

[Schiff for Senate]

Possibly Jackson County IL

I doubt it. I recall some poster making a theory that Jackson and other college counties that swung to the right in 2020 may have done so because college students went remote and did not cast their ballot in the county - instead, in some other county where they were studying. Thus, a lower proportion of total votes cast in such counties would be from the college students and consequently, such counties would likely see a modest rightward swing (as was the case in Jackson County). Of course, it's possible it doesn't apply, but we'll see. In 2024 I think a greater proportion of Jackson County votes will be from college students than in 2020, and thus, the county will remain Democratic (and quite possibly move to the left from 2020, depending on the national environment).

Possibly Jackson County IL

It voted for Rauner in 2014

Well this makes it a lot harder. Generally, I think most of us are only considering counties that have long-running Democratic streaks at the presidential level.

I’m thinking Green County and Portage County, Wisconsin would probably vote GOP this year.

Portage has an urban center in Stevens Point and has over 70,000 people. Admittedly it swung slightly rightwards in 2020 nonetheless, but I think rurals might have (and I could be wrong) maxed out and the urban center should keep Democrats in the lead.

Green is in the south suburbs of Madison and actually swung leftward in 2020. I don't think it'll be flipping in 2024 - if Trump is renominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the suburban part of the county, and if DeathSantis is nominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the rural part of the county, thereby leaving the county Democratic.

Carlton and Lake counties, Minnesota

Lake actually swung leftwards in 2020. I doubt it flips. Carlton might, I admit, but we'll see.

[Schiff for Senate]

If you're only considering Class 3 Senate elections, this November will be the first time in a while that the following counties go Republican (note that for the "at least 1962" counties, it's because Wikipedia doesn't have a county map for 1962, but it's known these counties have gone blue for sure in every Class 3 Senate race thereafter for sure):

Franklin (maybe, but likelier than not - it was a Trump 2020 county and if Paul does about as well or better than Trump 2020, which he should because of the apparent red wave, the county should trend red from 2020-2022 relative to the state as a whole, in which case it will go for Paul) - since at least 1962
Elliott - since at least 1962
Rowan - since 1968 (in other words, it last went red that year)
Marion - since at least 1962
Nicholas - 1962

[GregTheGreat657]

Possibly Jackson County IL

I doubt it. I recall some poster making a theory that Jackson and other college counties that swung to the right in 2020 may have done so because college students went remote and did not cast their ballot in the county - instead, in some other county where they were studying. Thus, a lower proportion of total votes cast in such counties would be from the college students and consequently, such counties would likely see a modest rightward swing (as was the case in Jackson County). Of course, it's possible it doesn't apply, but we'll see. In 2024 I think a greater proportion of Jackson County votes will be from college students than in 2020, and thus, the county will remain Democratic (and quite possibly move to the left from 2020, depending on the national environment).

Possibly Jackson County IL

It voted for Rauner in 2014

Well this makes it a lot harder. Generally, I think most of us are only considering counties that have long-running Democratic streaks at the presidential level.

I’m thinking Green County and Portage County, Wisconsin would probably vote GOP this year.

Portage has an urban center in Stevens Point and has over 70,000 people. Admittedly it swung slightly rightwards in 2020 nonetheless, but I think rurals might have (and I could be wrong) maxed out and the urban center should keep Democrats in the lead.

Green is in the south suburbs of Madison and actually swung leftward in 2020. I don't think it'll be flipping in 2024 - if Trump is renominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the suburban part of the county, and if DeathSantis is nominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the rural part of the county, thereby leaving the county Democratic.

Carlton and Lake counties, Minnesota

Lake actually swung leftwards in 2020. I doubt it flips. Carlton might, I admit, but we'll see.

Lake County trended right in 2020, and has extremely favorable demographics for Republicans (95% white, 28% college educated, 5 people per square mile)

[Vosem]

The really obvious one is Jasper SC, given how rapidly the retirement communities are growing there and that rural black turnout is, based on all the special elections, going to crater. I think Jasper SC is a Biden '20/R '24 county even if 2024 is a huge Democratic landslide.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Possibly Jackson County IL

I doubt it. I recall some poster making a theory that Jackson and other college counties that swung to the right in 2020 may have done so because college students went remote and did not cast their ballot in the county - instead, in some other county where they were studying. Thus, a lower proportion of total votes cast in such counties would be from the college students and consequently, such counties would likely see a modest rightward swing (as was the case in Jackson County). Of course, it's possible it doesn't apply, but we'll see. In 2024 I think a greater proportion of Jackson County votes will be from college students than in 2020, and thus, the county will remain Democratic (and quite possibly move to the left from 2020, depending on the national environment).

Possibly Jackson County IL

It voted for Rauner in 2014

Well this makes it a lot harder. Generally, I think most of us are only considering counties that have long-running Democratic streaks at the presidential level.

I’m thinking Green County and Portage County, Wisconsin would probably vote GOP this year.

Portage has an urban center in Stevens Point and has over 70,000 people. Admittedly it swung slightly rightwards in 2020 nonetheless, but I think rurals might have (and I could be wrong) maxed out and the urban center should keep Democrats in the lead.

Green is in the south suburbs of Madison and actually swung leftward in 2020. I don't think it'll be flipping in 2024 - if Trump is renominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the suburban part of the county, and if DeathSantis is nominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the rural part of the county, thereby leaving the county Democratic.

Carlton and Lake counties, Minnesota

Lake actually swung leftwards in 2020. I doubt it flips. Carlton might, I admit, but we'll see.

Someone who lives in southern Wisconsin may know better than me but I’m pretty sure it’s a stretch to call Green a suburban county. My understanding is that it’s squarely in the Madison metro but that the suburban sprawl stops well before the county line, and that most of the population resides in heavily white small towns with their own economies which just happen to be located near each other (Belleville, New Glarus, Monroe, etc). This type of place to me resembles the small Iowa towns that are trending hard right, and Trump got to 47% here for the first time since like the 80’s. I would think it flips in any close election( even with a Youngkin type

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Anson and Wilson, NC

[Schiff for Senate]

Possibly Jackson County IL

I doubt it. I recall some poster making a theory that Jackson and other college counties that swung to the right in 2020 may have done so because college students went remote and did not cast their ballot in the county - instead, in some other county where they were studying. Thus, a lower proportion of total votes cast in such counties would be from the college students and consequently, such counties would likely see a modest rightward swing (as was the case in Jackson County). Of course, it's possible it doesn't apply, but we'll see. In 2024 I think a greater proportion of Jackson County votes will be from college students than in 2020, and thus, the county will remain Democratic (and quite possibly move to the left from 2020, depending on the national environment).

Possibly Jackson County IL

It voted for Rauner in 2014

Well this makes it a lot harder. Generally, I think most of us are only considering counties that have long-running Democratic streaks at the presidential level.

I’m thinking Green County and Portage County, Wisconsin would probably vote GOP this year.

Portage has an urban center in Stevens Point and has over 70,000 people. Admittedly it swung slightly rightwards in 2020 nonetheless, but I think rurals might have (and I could be wrong) maxed out and the urban center should keep Democrats in the lead.

Green is in the south suburbs of Madison and actually swung leftward in 2020. I don't think it'll be flipping in 2024 - if Trump is renominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the suburban part of the county, and if DeathSantis is nominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the rural part of the county, thereby leaving the county Democratic.

Carlton and Lake counties, Minnesota

Lake actually swung leftwards in 2020. I doubt it flips. Carlton might, I admit, but we'll see.

Someone who lives in southern Wisconsin may know better than me but I’m pretty sure it’s a stretch to call Green a suburban county. My understanding is that it’s squarely in the Madison metro but that the suburban sprawl stops well before the county line, and that most of the population resides in heavily white small towns with their own economies which just happen to be located near each other (Belleville, New Glarus, Monroe, etc). This type of place to me resembles the small Iowa towns that are trending hard right, and Trump got to 47% here for the first time since like the 80’s. I would think it flips in any close election( even with a Youngkin type

I think it could flip, but only in a good night for the GOP. Like if the Democrat wins WI, there's pretty much zero chance Green flips. If WI flips, then depending on the NPV and the margin, Green might flip too. But if WI doesn't, Green doesn't. And I myself conceded in my post that not all of the county is suburban (see the portions that I bolded).

[Schiff for Senate]

Anson and Wilson, NC

Anson does have a long streak (having not gone red presidentially since 1972).
But I'm not sure Wilson's streak is long enough to qualify - it went for the GOP as recently as 2004, and the OP is asking specifically for counties with streaks that span 'several decades.'

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Anson and Wilson, NC

Anson does have a long streak (having not gone red presidentially since 1972).
But I'm not sure Wilson's streak is long enough to qualify - it went for the GOP as recently as 2004, and the OP is asking specifically for counties with streaks that span 'several decades.'

Thats surprising, was it W Bush? Because even Burr in 2010 and McCrory in 2012 did not carry Wilson, so I assumed Bush didn't either

[Schiff for Senate]

Anson and Wilson, NC

Anson does have a long streak (having not gone red presidentially since 1972).
But I'm not sure Wilson's streak is long enough to qualify - it went for the GOP as recently as 2004, and the OP is asking specifically for counties with streaks that span 'several decades.'

Thats surprising, was it W Bush? Because even Burr in 2010 and McCrory in 2012 did not carry Wilson, so I assumed Bush didn't either

Yes, it backed Bush in both 2000 and 2004. In fact, before 2008, the last time it went Democratic presidentially was in 1976 (it even voted against Clinton both times).

[Unelectable Bystander]

Possibly Jackson County IL

I doubt it. I recall some poster making a theory that Jackson and other college counties that swung to the right in 2020 may have done so because college students went remote and did not cast their ballot in the county - instead, in some other county where they were studying. Thus, a lower proportion of total votes cast in such counties would be from the college students and consequently, such counties would likely see a modest rightward swing (as was the case in Jackson County). Of course, it's possible it doesn't apply, but we'll see. In 2024 I think a greater proportion of Jackson County votes will be from college students than in 2020, and thus, the county will remain Democratic (and quite possibly move to the left from 2020, depending on the national environment).

Possibly Jackson County IL

It voted for Rauner in 2014

Well this makes it a lot harder. Generally, I think most of us are only considering counties that have long-running Democratic streaks at the presidential level.

I’m thinking Green County and Portage County, Wisconsin would probably vote GOP this year.

Portage has an urban center in Stevens Point and has over 70,000 people. Admittedly it swung slightly rightwards in 2020 nonetheless, but I think rurals might have (and I could be wrong) maxed out and the urban center should keep Democrats in the lead.

Green is in the south suburbs of Madison and actually swung leftward in 2020. I don't think it'll be flipping in 2024 - if Trump is renominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the suburban part of the county, and if DeathSantis is nominated I doubt he'll do better than 2020 levels in the rural part of the county, thereby leaving the county Democratic.

Carlton and Lake counties, Minnesota

Lake actually swung leftwards in 2020. I doubt it flips. Carlton might, I admit, but we'll see.

Someone who lives in southern Wisconsin may know better than me but I’m pretty sure it’s a stretch to call Green a suburban county. My understanding is that it’s squarely in the Madison metro but that the suburban sprawl stops well before the county line, and that most of the population resides in heavily white small towns with their own economies which just happen to be located near each other (Belleville, New Glarus, Monroe, etc). This type of place to me resembles the small Iowa towns that are trending hard right, and Trump got to 47% here for the first time since like the 80’s. I would think it flips in any close election( even with a Youngkin type

I think it could flip, but only in a good night for the GOP. Like if the Democrat wins WI, there's pretty much zero chance Green flips. If WI flips, then depending on the NPV and the margin, Green might flip too. But if WI doesn't, Green doesn't. And I myself conceded in my post that not all of the county is suburban (see the portions that I bolded).

My point is that I don’t think any of it is particularly suburban, given that Verona and Fitchburg are suburbs with exurban tendencies and there’s quite a bit of undeveloped land between there and Green. I don’t think it’s a sure thing that Biden carries it if he carries Wisconsin in a nail-biter, especially if his coalition includes receiving more and more raw votes out of Madison while cutting margins in Ozaukee/Waukesha. Obviously it might not flip, especially if trends stall in 2024, but there’s a very good case for it trending right currently