Elizabeth Dole as NRSC head and 2008 races

[Rococo4]

She is taking a beating, but besides throwing all that money at Chafee, I am not sure what she could have done differently.  It was a brutal cycle for the job.  She couldnt duct tape George Allen's mouth shut, couldnt keep Conrad Burns from insulting firefighters, or couldnt keep Bob Taft from destroying the career of Mike DeWine.  I know she beat Norm Coleman out by 1 vote for the job, but would it really have mattered?  Almost better Coleman didnt get tainted by this job this year.

Looking ahead to 2008, Senator Ensign will have a difficult job as initial looks show the Democrats in good shape in 2008 races.  But then again, anyone who said in Nov. 04 that the Democrats would pick up 6 Senate seats this time around would have been dismissed with many a laugh.

[Sam Spade]

2008 will all depend on who retires, who is recruited to run and who heads the top of the ticket.  Prez elections are very different than midterm elections in this way, because the third factor can sometimes trump the other two.

[Eraserhead]

She was terrible but that was only one of many problems they had.

[TheresNoMoney]

Her biggest problem was in recruitment and the fact that she's politically tone-deaf.

[okstate]

Safe Republican

Alabama (Sessions)
Alaska (Stevens)
Idaho (Craig)
Kansas (Roberts)
Kentucky (McConnell)
Mississippi (Cochran)
Nebraska (Hagel)
New Mexico (Domenici)
Oklahoma (Inhofe)
Wyoming (Enzi)

Likely Republican

Georgia (Chambliss)
Maine (Collins)
New Hampshire (Sununu)
North Carolina (Dole)
Oregon (Smith)
South Carolina (Graham)
Tennessee (Alexander)
Virginia (Warner)

Lean Republican

Minnesota (Coleman)
Texas (Cornyn)

Tossup

Colorado (Allard)

Lean Democrat

Louisiana (Landrieu)
New Jersey (Lautenberg)
South Dakota (Johnson)

Likely Democrat

Arkansas (Pryor)
Delaware (OPEN; Biden)
Iowa (Harkin)
Montana (Baucus)

Safe Democrat

Illinois (Durbin)
Massachusetts (Kerry)
Michigan (Levin)
Rhode Island (Reed)
West Virginia (Rockefeller)

Some guessing, and assuming no more retirements. Obviously retirements would shift a lot of races.

[Deano963]

I'm betting the very first official act of John Ensign as NRSC Chair will be to crawl on his hands and knees to Susan Collins and prostate himself on the floor before her and beg her not to retire (I'm not saying she is planning on retiring, just that she might).

Offer her whatever she wants, John, b/c Republicans are a dying breed in the NE and she is the only person who can hold the seat for you.

[bullmoose88]

Not so sure on New Hampshire being so safe, and as long as John Warner wants the seat in VA it would probably be his...but an open race would be competitive

[TheresNoMoney]

Susan Collins pledged to not serve more than two terms....we'll see if she keeps her promise.

[Sam Spade]

Cornyn is not retiring and should at least be in Likely.  I mean, he'll never get over 60% unless the opponent is hapless, but it's just very hard for a Democrat to win 45% in Texas statewide nowadays, unless they're the reincarnation of Lloyd Bentsen.  Might not even happen there, because a Presidential election makes it even harder.

[okstate]

I was thinking his low approvals, or at least they were low.

But yea you are right probably should be likely.

[Eraserhead]

Not so sure on New Hampshire being so safe, and as long as John Warner wants the seat in VA it would probably be his...but an open race would be competitive

An open race is Mark Warner's for the taking if he wants it.

[Sam Spade]

I was thinking his low approvals, or at least they were low.

But yea you are right probably should be likely.

Considering less than half of adults vote in Texas in Prez elections, I don't place much stock in a poll of 600 adults among a figure who tends to be loved/hated by the partisans, as Cornyn is.

[Rococo4]

Not so sure on New Hampshire being so safe, and as long as John Warner wants the seat in VA it would probably be his...but an open race would be competitive

Yeh I totoally agree the NH seat is probabaly the biggest challenge for the Repblicans in 08 in Sununu, follwed by Allard Seat, then the Coleman seat.  hopefully am wrong and John Warner runs and wins, which he would

[Rococo4]

Not so sure on New Hampshire being so safe, and as long as John Warner wants the seat in VA it would probably be his...but an open race would be competitive

Yeh I totoally agree the NH seat is probabaly the biggest challenge for the Repblicans in 08 in Sununu, follwed by Allard Seat, then the Coleman seat.  hopefully am wrong and John Warner runs and wins, which he would

sorry i am on sleep medicicrne and can barley funvtion right now or type

[Rob]

Oregon (Smith)

If the Democrats recruit a top-tier candidate like former Governor Kitzhaber or 4th District Congressman DeFazio, this will definitely be a tossup. Smith isn't personally offensive, and he's decent on a few issues (drilling in ANWR, for one), but he's a bit too conservative for the state.

[Verily]

Cornyn is not retiring and should at least be in Likely.  I mean, he'll never get over 60% unless the opponent is hapless, but it's just very hard for a Democrat to win 45% in Texas statewide nowadays, unless they're the reincarnation of Lloyd Bentsen.  Might not even happen there, because a Presidential election makes it even harder.

It would actually be very reminiscent of New Jersey this year, come to think of it.

Also, I think Louisiana will be a toss-up. Landrieu is very weak, and Hurricane Katrina made Louisiana slightly more Republican.

OTOH, I would call NJ at least Likely Democrat. Lautenberg would win in a walk as would any of potential replacements should he re-retire. His low approval ratings mean nothing; NJ gives everyone low approval ratings.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Lautenberg will be 84 though in 2008.  I know it seems that senators just keep on serving older and older but some of the restless Democrats like Andrews, Pallone and Holt may want to try for the seat. 

[RJ]

She is taking a beating, but besides throwing all that money at Chafee, I am not sure what she could have done differently.  It was a brutal cycle for the job.  She couldnt duct tape George Allen's mouth shut, couldnt keep Conrad Burns from insulting firefighters, or couldnt keep Bob Taft from destroying the career of Mike DeWine. 

Pete Ricketts
Susan Harris
Mike McGavick
Mark Kennedy
Dwight Grotberg

Nebraska, Florida, Washington, Minnesota, and North Dakota were some real oppurtunities for the Republican party this year and this is the best they could do? When your party is in the majority and the majority of senate candidates up for reelection are in the minority party, that's called an oppurtunity. To top things off, you not only do not gain more seats and give your party a real mandate, you lose your advantage as the majority alltogether. .


Here in Ohio a guy named Jim Petro, the state auditor, ran for Governor and tried to win the nomination. I think he could have made trouble for Strickland, more so than Blackwell. Lynn Swann may have looked like a winner at the time, but no one looked closer at what kind of campaign he would run against one of the more vulnerable governors? I would also figure if the Republican candidate was breathing in Kansas or Oklahoma, that person would have an immediate advantage over their Democratic counterpart. Neither of these races were even close. I could go on all night about disaster after disaster in Governors, Senators, and Congressional candidates this year.

This is not a new thing, either. Many are familiar with key elections in Illinois and Washington two years ago not to mention the 2 governor's races last year. I don't expect them to win all of these elections, but at least make it competitive and give your constiuents the idea you're trying. Maybe this year was a bad year to be a Republican, but when your campaigns are that bad and you lose decisive control overnight, something's radically wrong.

Mrs. Dole, all these things put together=a rotten job as head of the NRSC.

[Sam Spade]

Cornyn is not retiring and should at least be in Likely.  I mean, he'll never get over 60% unless the opponent is hapless, but it's just very hard for a Democrat to win 45% in Texas statewide nowadays, unless they're the reincarnation of Lloyd Bentsen.  Might not even happen there, because a Presidential election makes it even harder.

It would actually be very reminiscent of New Jersey this year, come to think of it.

Also, I think Louisiana will be a toss-up. Landrieu is very weak, and Hurricane Katrina made Louisiana slightly more Republican.

OTOH, I would call NJ at least Likely Democrat. Lautenberg would win in a walk as would any of potential replacements should he re-retire. His low approval ratings mean nothing; NJ gives everyone low approval ratings.

Not really.  If this was not the 2006 elections, the NJ race would have been a veritable toss-up.

Corruption does hurt.  And even in a banner Democratic year, which was especially strong in the NE, Menendez running as an incumbent still only got 53%.

[Conan]

Cornyn is not retiring and should at least be in Likely.  I mean, he'll never get over 60% unless the opponent is hapless, but it's just very hard for a Democrat to win 45% in Texas statewide nowadays, unless they're the reincarnation of Lloyd Bentsen.  Might not even happen there, because a Presidential election makes it even harder.

It would actually be very reminiscent of New Jersey this year, come to think of it.

Also, I think Louisiana will be a toss-up. Landrieu is very weak, and Hurricane Katrina made Louisiana slightly more Republican.

OTOH, I would call NJ at least Likely Democrat. Lautenberg would win in a walk as would any of potential replacements should he re-retire. His low approval ratings mean nothing; NJ gives everyone low approval ratings.

Not really.  If this was not the 2006 elections, the NJ race would have been a veritable toss-up.

Corruption does hurt.  And even in a banner Democratic year, which was especially strong in the NE, Menendez running as an incumbent still only got 53%.

The republican party in NJ is dead. Someone who they successfully painted as under federal criminal investigation won while coming from Hudson County and being hispanic. He was virtually unknown around the state until september. Lautenberg isnt corrupt and neither are any of the other NJ dem congressmen. That issue is over and NJ government has tons of time to enact popular laws and ethics bills. New Jersey for 2008 is likely to safe democratic. We know, we live here.

[okstate]

After reading more retirement rumors I have a lot of changes to make to what I posted.

I'll get around to it in the next few days.

[Sam Spade]

Cornyn is not retiring and should at least be in Likely.  I mean, he'll never get over 60% unless the opponent is hapless, but it's just very hard for a Democrat to win 45% in Texas statewide nowadays, unless they're the reincarnation of Lloyd Bentsen.  Might not even happen there, because a Presidential election makes it even harder.

It would actually be very reminiscent of New Jersey this year, come to think of it.

Also, I think Louisiana will be a toss-up. Landrieu is very weak, and Hurricane Katrina made Louisiana slightly more Republican.

OTOH, I would call NJ at least Likely Democrat. Lautenberg would win in a walk as would any of potential replacements should he re-retire. His low approval ratings mean nothing; NJ gives everyone low approval ratings.

Not really.  If this was not the 2006 elections, the NJ race would have been a veritable toss-up.

Corruption does hurt.  And even in a banner Democratic year, which was especially strong in the NE, Menendez running as an incumbent still only got 53%.

The republican party in NJ is dead. Someone who they successfully painted as under federal criminal investigation won while coming from Hudson County and being hispanic. He was virtually unknown around the state until september. Lautenberg isnt corrupt and neither are any of the other NJ dem congressmen. That issue is over and NJ government has tons of time to enact popular laws and ethics bills. New Jersey for 2008 is likely to safe democratic. We know, we live here.

Saying like corruption doesn't exist in New Jersey (with Menendez too) is like saying that the federal government under Republicans the last four years hasn't been spending like drunken sailors.

Just because you want to divorce yourself from reality and use the "I know New Jersey because I live here" isn't going to cut it.

Also, I would advise not predicting New Jersey for 2008 before it happens.

[Rococo4]

She is taking a beating, but besides throwing all that money at Chafee, I am not sure what she could have done differently.  It was a brutal cycle for the job.  She couldnt duct tape George Allen's mouth shut, couldnt keep Conrad Burns from insulting firefighters, or couldnt keep Bob Taft from destroying the career of Mike DeWine. 

Pete Ricketts
Susan Harris
Mike McGavick
Mark Kennedy
Dwight Grotberg

Nebraska, Florida, Washington, Minnesota, and North Dakota were some real oppurtunities for the Republican party this year and this is the best they could do? When your party is in the majority and the majority of senate candidates up for reelection are in the minority party, that's called an oppurtunity. To top things off, you not only do not gain more seats and give your party a real mandate, you lose your advantage as the majority alltogether. .


Here in Ohio a guy named Jim Petro, the state auditor, ran for Governor and tried to win the nomination. I think he could have made trouble for Strickland, more so than Blackwell. Lynn Swann may have looked like a winner at the time, but no one looked closer at what kind of campaign he would run against one of the more vulnerable governors? I would also figure if the Republican candidate was breathing in Kansas or Oklahoma, that person would have an immediate advantage over their Democratic counterpart. Neither of these races were even close. I could go on all night about disaster after disaster in Governors, Senators, and Congressional candidates this year.

This is not a new thing, either. Many are familiar with key elections in Illinois and Washington two years ago not to mention the 2 governor's races last year. I don't expect them to win all of these elections, but at least make it competitive and give your constiuents the idea you're trying. Maybe this year was a bad year to be a Republican, but when your campaigns are that bad and you lose decisive control overnight, something's radically wrong.

Mrs. Dole, all these things put together=a rotten job as head of the NRSC.

Mark Kennedy was a good candidate in a bad year......DOle couldnt make anyone run if they didnt want to...they saw the environment and what could happen.  They tried to prevent Harris from running, but she ran anyways.  No Repiblican would have beat Ben Nelson, and no Republican would have beaten Cantwell this year.  I am glad Rossi didnt run so he can run for us another time either for Senate or Gov.  Kent Conrad wasnt going to lose anyways.

Repiblicans would be stupid to target NJ in 2008.  How many times can we waste money there?