When did you realize Trump was about to lose?

[Gracile]

When he lost Wisconsin; I knew that Michigan and Pennsylvania would vote to its left when all the votes were counted.

[ultraviolet]

Once AZ was called it was clear his path to victory was  slim, though there were two other things at play: 1) I didn’t want to get my hopes up over this so I wouldn’t say I “knew” he had lost and 2) even at the time the call was being questioned so it could’ve been reversed

Biden saying he’s confident he would win was pretty reassuring even if it was just a shot in the dark (see James Gross). If you went on tiktok during those days all you’d see is Nevada memes though I never really held that in doubt, so when Biden got WI and MI to get to 264, that was pretty much it.

Obviously when DDHQ called it I knew it was over despite some people I know arguing with me about it.

[mpbond]

A little after midnight the NYT needle said that Biden was favored to win Georgia despite being several points down. I realized that if theres enough mail and urban votes out for Biden to make up that kind of deficit in GA, Trump is going to be in trouble in other states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin when results from places like Philly and Madison started pouring in.

[here2view]

In the lead up to the campaign... Summer 2020, post-Floyd when Trump was tweeting the "when the looting starts, the shooting starts" nonsense

On election night... When Fox called Arizona for Biden. I expected him to carry MI, NE-02, and WI based on their results when AZ was called, which equaled 270 when taking into account Clinton's 232 (never thought Biden was at risk of losing Nevada or something strange.)

[JGibson]

Either the arguably premature call of Arizona by Fox/AP for Biden or the first debate/Trump's positive COVID test.

[Chips]

During the campaign? Him getting COVID and the first debate I think really. In hindsight the election was so close that just about anything could've tipped it.

On election night: As the NYT needle began saying that Biden was modestly favored to win GA and when he began to take leads in WI and MI.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

I never thought he'd win a second term

[Xing]

In terms of actual votes, once Wisconsin was called and his lead began to shrink considerably in Georgia.