NY: How would Gov. Jumaane Williams' bid for a full term go?

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine progressive activist and NYC politician Jumaane Williams, currently running 4 gov and polling not very well, won the 2018 lt. governor primary over Hochul. He actually came within 7 pts, much closer than Nixon vs. Cuomo. First off, I wonder whether Cuomo would actually have been pushed out last year with Williams as potential successor? I'm skeptical about that. Tbh, I could see NY's Dem establishment making a deal with Cuomo not to impeach him in exchange for ending his 4th term bid. So he can serve out his regular term and someone else (like James) runs in his place.

Nonetheless, imagine Cuomo still resigned in August 2021 and Williams takes over. How do you see his bid for a full term go now? I think Letitia James would have been supported by a large majority of rank and file Dems and subsequently never drops out of the gubernatorial contest. She'd probably be ahead in the polls and defeat Williams in the primary by a 60-40% margin, regardless of his incumbency advantage. Sure, Hochul wasn't expected to become the favorite, too, though I fail to see Williams pulling off the same.

[Not Me, Us]

Honestly, I think Tish James would challenge him in the primary, consolidate establishment support and probably win pretty easily. I have a hard time seeing him lose in the general, but it's certainly not impossible, and he would be in a much weaker position than Hochul is or James would be.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, he'd definitely get a strong primary challenge. Tish James is the obvious choice here, and she would have been a very formidable opponent as she's also based in New York City and seems acceptable to both the establishment and progressive wing. While he'd still win a general election, I think Williams is just too far to the left for a primary here. He's to the left of Bernie and definitely in the toxic camp of his wing, not a good progressive like Fetterman or Liz Warren.

Thankfully Hochul won that race in 2018 so neither Williams became governor, nor did Cuomo have a chance to remain in office for the remainder of this term.