How likely do you think it is that abortions becomes illegal on a federal level at some point?

[Barack Oganja]

Scenario:
Roe v Wade overturned
Republicans make gains in Congress this year and 2024
Republican win White House in 2024
Republicans overturn filibuster (or have 60 votes in Senate)
Republicans pass federal abortion ban

This article was released yesterday before the SCOTUS leak

The next frontier for the antiabortion movement: A nationwide ban

Leading antiabortion groups and their allies in Congress have been meeting behind the scenes to plan a national strategy that would kick in if the Supreme Court rolls back abortion rights this summer, including a push for a strict nationwide ban on the procedure if Republicans retake power in Washington.

The effort, activists say, is designed to bring a fight that has been playing out largely in the courts and state legislatures to the national political stage — rallying conservatives around the issue in the midterms and pressuring potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates to take a stand.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/02/abortion-ban-roe-supreme-court-mississippi/

Will abortion soon be illegal in all of the US?

[Person Man]

Scenario:
Roe v Wade overturned
Republicans make gains in Congress this year and 2024
Republican win White House in 2024
Republicans overturn filibuster (or have 60 votes in Senate)
Republicans pass federal abortion ban

This article was released yesterday before the SCOTUS leak

The next frontier for the antiabortion movement: A nationwide ban

Leading antiabortion groups and their allies in Congress have been meeting behind the scenes to plan a national strategy that would kick in if the Supreme Court rolls back abortion rights this summer, including a push for a strict nationwide ban on the procedure if Republicans retake power in Washington.

The effort, activists say, is designed to bring a fight that has been playing out largely in the courts and state legislatures to the national political stage — rallying conservatives around the issue in the midterms and pressuring potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates to take a stand.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/02/abortion-ban-roe-supreme-court-mississippi/

Will abortion soon be illegal in all of the US?

It will go over about as well as Prohibition went over.

[NerdyBohemian]

Like I always say, if you think the Republicans won’t nuke the filibuster the first time Democrats use it to stop their agenda, I have a lovely little ski chateau I’d like to sell you in Florida.

[Devils30]

It will set the Dems up for a 60 seat House gain in 2026 and Senate wins in TX, NC, ME, AK.

[PSOL]

100% by January 6th, 2025.

[7,052,770]

It's definitely their next goal, no doubt about it. Nobody who thinks abortion is murder will stop at it being illegal in some states but legal in others.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is that even possible when SCOTUS rules the question goes back to the states? By that definition, abortion is a state issue and the federal govt can't legislate on the matter.

Imho, it's more likely GOP politicians and activists challenge pro-choice state-level laws through the judicial branch in federal courts; ergo Federalist Society judges overturn abortion laws in blue states. That may also cause less backlash than going through a long legislative process in congress. Some of these lawsuits may actually succeed, especially if Dems kind of overreach with bills in D-trifecta states.

[Person Man]

Is that even possible when SCOTUS rules the question goes back to the states? By that definition, abortion is a state issue and the federal govt can't legislate on the matter.

Imho, it's more likely GOP politicians and activists challenge pro-choice state-level laws through the judicial branch in federal courts; ergo Federalist Society judges overturn abortion laws in blue states. That may also cause less backlash than going through a long legislative process in congress. Some of these lawsuits may actually succeed, especially if Dems kind of overreach with bills in D-trifecta states.

And so what? If in a typical swing state that Democrats can and usually still win but Republicans heavily rely on cheating to get big majorities in state houses, I think of states like WI, MI,PA,GA, and maybe one day TX and even FL, and therefore abortion action is a non-starter, can't the Democratic Governor just pardon every person who would be liable and fire every DA and that still tries to prosecute when they can?

[afleitch]

A move towards an El Salvador 'solution' is the ultimate aim of the political pro-life movement and you are kidding yourselves if you cannot either see, or see and not accept that. Luckily the federal system in the US will allow for a patchwork of different laws, as long as democracy isn't subverted which of course, it already is and will be.

[bithouspreg]

Nah, I think GOP politicians will try to make it a "state's right issue" so that they still have the option to fly their mistresses to California to "get it taken care of" when necessary.

[Hermit For Peace]

Nah, I think GOP politicians will try to make it a "state's right issue" so that they still have the option to fly their mistresses to California to "get it taken care of" when necessary.

I'd like to see that type of person outed.

[ꙮ]

They'll never have the votes for it in the Senate as long as the filibuster exists. They'd need like a 62 seat majority. Democrats would need to have a 2010 magnitude midterm this year, then lose multiple seats while still winning the Presidency in 2024 so that they could have another 2010 style midterm loss in 2026. Then the GOP would need to win the Presidency in 2028 without losing any of their pickups from 2022.

Then again, if the filibuster actually gets nuked at some point I could see it happening.

[darklordoftech]

If a Republican trifecta passes such a bill on a party line, it would be the worst thing to happen to the GOP since Herbert Hoover.

[7,052,770]

They'll never have the votes for it in the Senate as long as the filibuster exists.

The second there are 50+1 votes to enact a national abortion ban, Republicans will ditch the filibuster (or more likely just make a carveout). How could someone who believes abortion is murder let a changeable procedural rule get in the way of ending it?

[Greedo punched first]

They'll never have the votes for it in the Senate as long as the filibuster exists.

The second there are 50+1 votes to enact a national abortion ban, Republicans will ditch the filibuster (or more likely just make a carveout). How could someone who believes abortion is murder let a changeable procedural rule get in the way of ending it?

Congress doesn't even need to pass a federal abortion ban if SCOTUS declares fetal personhood. It isn't known if SCOTUS has the votes to declare fetal personhood by judicial fiat.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Isn't the sole reason Republicans have been so focused on the court is that they didnt want to be electorally responsible for banning abortion on the federal level.

[ꙮ]

They'll never have the votes for it in the Senate as long as the filibuster exists.

The second there are 50+1 votes to enact a national abortion ban, Republicans will ditch the filibuster (or more likely just make a carveout). How could someone who believes abortion is murder let a changeable procedural rule get in the way of ending it?

Congress doesn't even need to pass a federal abortion ban if SCOTUS declares fetal personhood. It isn't known if SCOTUS has the votes to declare fetal personhood by judicial fiat.

Fetal personhood isn’t going to happen.

[David Hume]

Like I always say, if you think the Republicans won’t nuke the filibuster the first time Democrats use it to stop their agenda, I have a lovely little ski chateau I’d like to sell you in Florida.

Did they do it in 2017 and 2018?

[Ferguson97]

It will be illegal at the federal level the next time the Republicans have a trifecta, so either 2025 or 2029.

[Jeffster]

Republicans are not going to nuke the legislative filibuster just to pass an abortion ban, no matter how bad the base wants it. It's too valuable a tool to stop the Democrats legislative agenda when R's are in the minority. Now if the Democrats nuke it first, then sure they'd try for an abortion ban when they have the majorities plus the Presidency. But it would mean they don't have any defectors that vote against it. So no Susan Collins, or at least  having a large enough majority to afford two of three no votes.

[Bismarck]

Extremely unlikely.

[Hermit For Peace]

They'll never have the votes for it in the Senate as long as the filibuster exists.

The second there are 50+1 votes to enact a national abortion ban, Republicans will ditch the filibuster (or more likely just make a carveout). How could someone who believes abortion is murder let a changeable procedural rule get in the way of ending it?

Congress doesn't even need to pass a federal abortion ban if SCOTUS declares fetal personhood. It isn't known if SCOTUS has the votes to declare fetal personhood by judicial fiat.

Fetal personhood isn’t going to happen.

Corporations became people, and what is more inanimate than a corporation?

[NewYorkExpress]

Is that even possible when SCOTUS rules the question goes back to the states? By that definition, abortion is a state issue and the federal govt can't legislate on the matter..

That's not what the Supreme Court is going to rule. The Supreme Court is going to rule that neither the states nor the federal government can legalize abortion, because a child has a "right to be born" (which is complete bullsh**t, but whatever).

[Hermit For Peace]

Is that even possible when SCOTUS rules the question goes back to the states? By that definition, abortion is a state issue and the federal govt can't legislate on the matter..

That's not what the Supreme Court is going to rule. The Supreme Court is going to rule that neither the states nor the federal government can legalize abortion, because a child has a "right to be born" (which is complete bullsh**t, but whatever).

Wow. That it? In my view, a child has the privilege of birth. We all had the privilege of birth. But there is no right, because women and men who are already alive and who already have jobs and families and are already contributors of society in big ways, are much more important. That makes sense to me.

Of course this takes God out of the conversation, and that's what so many pro-lifers hang their shingles on: God and what God wants and says. Of course that conversation is inside their own minds. Nobody else cares what they think, especially when they try to make the entire country bow down to their God. It's creepy as can be.

That lopsided point of view will never prevail in the long run. It's out of balance with reality.

[Badger]

Nah, I think GOP politicians will try to make it a "state's right issue" so that they still have the option to fly their mistresses to California to "get it taken care of" when necessary.

I'd like to see that type of person outed.

Republicans won't care when they are.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_DesJarlais