States without big counties

[Sol]

Of course, the St. Louis metro is still considerably larger, IIRC.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin without Milwaukee County

Barack Obama 1,288,547 50.02%
Mitt Romney 1,253,042 48.65%

Tammy Baldwin 1,234,486 48.76%
Tommy Thompson 1,224,716 48.38%

[Adam Griffin]

^ Adam, are both maps without Clayton County?

I'm not Adam, but I think only the second one lacks it.

Correct.

[Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin]

Could someone do one for the WA 2012, and 2004 Governor's races?

Without King County? Or without Seattle?

Without King County:

2012
McKenna- 53.3%
Inslee- 46.7%

2004
Rossi- 52.9%
Gregoire- 44.8%
Others- 2.3%

Thank you!

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to revive this thread.

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia

Trump: 2,807,523 (53.1%)
Clinton: 2,284,163 (43.2%)

Illinois without Cook

Trump: 1,677,966 (50.6%)
Clinton: 1,448,916 (43.7%)

[Annatar]

I thought I might continue this thread, here is the data on Michigan without Wayne County.

2012:
Barack Obama: 1,968,723 (50.3%)
Mitt Romney: 1,901,442 (48.6%)

2016:
Hillary Clinton: 1,749,395 (43.6%)
Donald Trump: 2,050,550 (51.1%)

[MarkD]

Results in the last five years for Illinois without Cook County.

2014 Governor
Pat Quinn – 810,477 35.51%
Bruce Rauner – 1,376,239 60.29%
others – 95,835 4.20%

2014 US Senator
Richard Durbin – 984,002 43.34%
Jim Oberweis – 1,193,267 52.56%
others – 93,232 4.10%

2016 President
Hillary Clinton – 1,478.783 43.78%
Donald Trump – 1,692,728 50.11%
others – 206,193 6.10%

2016 US Senator
Tammy Duckworth – 1,513,040 45.01%
Mark Steven Kirk – 1,654,911 49.23%
others 193,369 5.75%

2018 Governor
JB Pritzker – 1,217,412 43.62%
Bruce Rauner – 1,339,555 47.99%
others – 234,107 8.39%


Texas without Harris County

2014 Governor
Wendy Davis – 1,515,436 37.53%
Greg Abbott – 2,446,908 60.59%
others – 75,848 1.88%

2014 US Senator
David Alameel – 1,315,980 33.07%
John Cornyn – 2,498,644 62.78%
others – 165,272 4.15%

2016 President
Hillary Clinton – 3,169,954 41.40%
Donald Trump – 4,139,092 54.06%
others – 348,068 4.54%

2018 Governor
Lupe Valdez – 2,917,710 40.88%
Greg Abbott – 4,096,377 57.40%
others – 122,538 1.72%

2018 US Senator
Beto O’Rourke – 3,345,432 46.70%
Ted Cruz – 3,761,651 52.51%
others – 56,818 0.79%

[Del Tachi]

Mississippi without Hinds:

2019 Governor
Tate Reeves - 434,299 54.90%
Jim Hood - 346,673 43.82%
Others - 10,138 1.28%

2018 US Senate - Special Runoff
Cindy Hyde-Smith - 468,305 56.61%
Mike Espy - 358,927 43.39%

2016 President
Donald Trump - 675,439 60.52%
Hillary Clinton - 417,537 37.41%  
Others - 23,035 2.06%

2014 US Senate - Republican Runoff*
Chris McDaniel - 180,115 50.48%
Thad Cochran - 176,721 49.52%

2012 President
Mitt Romney - 681,082 57.76%
Barack Obama - 486,837 41.29%
Others - 11,174 0.95%

*Flip

[Cokeland Saxton]

That swing is actually a lot more significant than I thought. I mean it shifted the state 8 points in 2012, that's huge.

I've been trying to determine the most powerful urban county in America in terms of controlling the politics of the state. I think Cook County, Il could be number one, but there's also Philadelphia, Wayne County MI, Miami-Dade, King County WA, Multnomah County OR, Fairfax VA, Cuyahoga OH,  and St. Louis. All of these counties are different sizes, but they tend to push the Democrat over the finish line in many statewide races.

Cook is definitely the most influential in terms of swinging the vote. Illinois votes...

Romney: 1,639,674 (50.8%)
Obama: 1,530,975 (47.4%)

without Cook County. But that's because it holds 40% of the population. Not only is the county itself huge (land area), but its a huge concentration of people. I think only Anchorage AK, Honolulu HI, Maricopa AZ, and Clark NV are the only other counties that hold a bigger % of people of their respective states than Cook of IL. 49.3% of Obama's votes in Illinois come out of Cook County.

New Castle, DE

[MarkD]

Cuyahoga County contains 11% of the population of Ohio.
It used to be an axiom in Ohio politics that a Democratic candidate for statewide office who wins Cuyahoga by at least 100,000 votes is also winning statewide, and if they win Cuyahoga by less than 100,000, then they are losing statewide. That axiom no longer holds true.

2008 President
Barack Obama – 2,481,622 49.21%
John McCain – 2,477,940 49.14%
others – 83,436 1.65%

2010 US Senator
Lee Fisher – 1,267,502 37.29%
Rob Portman – 2,000,979 58.88%
others – 130,117 3.83%

2010 Governor
Ted Strickland – 1,560,808 45.40%
John Kasich – 1,740,575 50.63%
others – 136,301 3.96%

2012 President
Barack Obama – 2,380,436 48.22%
Mitt Romney – 2,470,779 50.05%
others – 85,393 1.73%

2012 US Senator
Sherrod Brown – 2,335,169 48.31%
Josh Mandel – 2,268,481 46.93%
Scott Rupert – 230,004 4.76%

2014 Governor
Edward FitzGerald – 859,373 31.60%
John Kasich – 1,772,529 66.19%
Anita Rios – 87,242 3.21%

2016 President
Hilary Clinton – 1,995,893 40.79%
Donald Trump – 2,656,794 54.30%
others – 239,978 4.90%

2016 US Senator
Ted Strickland – 1,669,228 34.81%
Rob Portman – 2,896,442 60.40%
others – 230,118 4.80%

2018 US Senator
Sherrod Brown – 2,008,146 51.05%
Jim Renacci – 1,924,611 48.93%
Stephen Faris (write-in) – 963 0.02%

2018 Governor
Richard Cordray – 1,746,770 44.22%
Mike DeWine – 2,084,977 52.78%
others – 118,439 3.00%

So the only election that would have flipped w/o Cuyahoga was the 2012 Presidential election.

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginia the margin was: 1,981,473 to 1,769,443 in 2016.

But Fairfax was 355,133 to 157,710... so it would have been about even but she still would have won.

[Calthrina950]

I'm going to revive this thread again, because I find this to be an interesting concept. I'll get it going by posting the results for what Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin-the critical swing states in last year's election (which would have thrown the election into the House had they gone for Trump), would have looked like without their largest counties:

Arizona without Maricopa County: 1,321,302
Trump (R): 666,021 (50.41%)
Biden (D): 631,369 (47.78%)

Georgia without Fulton County: 4,473,937
Trump (R): 2,324,607 (51.96%)
Biden (D): 2,093,421 (46.79%)

Wisconsin without Milwaukee County: 2,838,318
Trump (R): 1,475,702 (51.99%)
Biden (D): 1,313,339 (46.27%)

Unsurprisingly, all three states would have gone for Trump without their largest counties. Trump won Arizona outside of Maricopa County by 34,652 votes, Georgia outside of Fulton County by 231,186 votes, and Wisconsin outside of Milwaukee County by 162,363 votes. The Democratic dependence upon large, populous urban counties has become even more of a critical factor for their electoral prospects than it was before. I haven't calculated them (perhaps others might be willing to?), but Biden obviously would not have won Nevada, Illinois, and Pennsylvania without their largest counties, and probably not Michigan or Minnesota either.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Illinois without Cook County:
Joe Biden: 1,745,942   (47.39%)
Donald Trump: 1,888,622   (51.27%)
Other: 48,887   (1.32%)

Oregon without Multnomah County:

Joe Biden: 973,134 (51.64%)
Donald Trump: 875,453 (46.45%)
Other: 35,856 (1.9%)


New York without the 5 Boroughs:
Joe Biden: 2,922,247   (52.83%)
Donald Trump: 2,558,548   (46.25%)
Other: 50,367   (0.91%)

pretty interesting stuff, i think Clinton lost New York State by like 0.3 points so Biden really made a come back

[Calthrina950]

Illinois without Cook County:
Joe Biden: 1,745,942   (47.39%)
Donald Trump: 1,888,622   (51.27%)
Other: 48,887   (1.32%)

Oregon without Multnomah County:

Joe Biden: 973,134 (51.64%)
Donald Trump: 875,453 (46.45%)
Other: 35,856 (1.9%)


New York without the 5 Boroughs:
Joe Biden: 2,922,247   (52.83%)
Donald Trump: 2,558,548   (46.25%)
Other: 50,367   (0.91%)

pretty interesting stuff, i think Clinton lost New York State by like 0.3 points so Biden really made a come back

Actually, Clinton won New York State outside of New York City, as I determined earlier today, by ~66,000 votes, or 1.34%. As your figures demonstrate, Biden won New York State outside of New York City by 363,699 votes or 6.58%, so he clearly improved over Clinton by a noticeable amount in Upstate. However, he did worse than Clinton in New York City, receiving 83% in the Bronx (compared to her 89%), 72% in Queens (compared to her 75%), and 77% in Kings (compared to her 80%).

He did do better than her in Staten Island (receiving 42% compared to her 41%) and did only slightly worse than her in Manhattan (receiving 86% compared to her 87%), but overall, it was a net loss. This is clear evidence of the minority and urban swings to Trump that were seen in many (though not all) states last year, and helps to explain why Trump was actually able to increase his overall vote share in New York State compared to 2016, despite doing worse in Upstate. As for Illinois, Obama is the only Democrat since the turn of the century to have won the state outside of Cook County-and only in 2008. Before that, the last Democrat to carry Outstate Illinois was Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

[Calthrina950]

Reviving this again, here is how Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania would have voted in 2020 without their largest counties:

Michigan without Wayne County: 4,673,168
Trump (R): 2,385,311 (51.04%)
Biden (D): 2,206,875 (47.22%)

Minnesota without Hennepin County: 2,521,202
Trump (R): 1,278,092 (50.69%)
Biden (D): 1,184,454 (46.97%)

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia County: 6,196,483
Trump (R): 3,246,185 (52.38%)
Biden (D): 2,857,046 (46.10%)

All three states would have gone for Trump without their largest counties, as I had guessed earlier. So, Biden would not have won any of the Midwestern States he did without their largest counties.

[Minnesota Mike]

Shocker highly populated urban areas vote Democratic, if you eliminate them the vote is more Republican.  This is as stupid as the posts that throw out the results from California or New York like that somehow proves something.

[Calthrina950]

Shocker highly populated urban areas vote Democratic, if you eliminate them the vote is more Republican.  This is as stupid as the posts that throw out the results from California or New York like that somehow proves something.

This is not always the case. For example, Colorado and South Carolina would be more Democratic if the results from their largest counties (El Paso and Greenville) were excluded. This would also be true for New Hampshire. Moreover, outstate areas have trended more Republican in recent years, and many of these areas once voted Democratic. Obama, for example, won all of the Midwestern States he carried except for Indiana outside of their largest counties in 2008. But in 2020, Biden did not win a single Midwestern State outside of their largest counties. Even in 2012, states like Michigan and Wisconsin went for Obama outside of their largest counties.

[Schiff for Senate]

Nevada without Clark County

I believe Clark contains the largest proportion of total population of the state it's in for any county - it definitely beats Cook because a solid majority of NV's population is within Clark County as compared to a bit more than 40% of IL's population in Cook - though that is also because all of the Las Vegas area is in Clark, whereas the entire Chicago metropolitan area is split into many counties. Note also that all percentages are of the two-way vote share and that's why the Democrats+Republicans=100% for all these races. Anyway, all the races go from going Democratic by narrow margins to going Republican by margins just to the left of MO/IN/MT, with the exception of 2014 NV GOV (massive GOP landslide).

2020 Presidential:

Actual:
Biden (D): 703,486 (51.22%)
Trump (R): 669,890 (48.78%)
Without Clark:
Biden (D): 181,634 (43.19%)
Trump (R): 238,960 (56.81%)

2018 Senatorial:
Actual:
Rosen (D): 490,071 (52.62%)
Heller (R): 441,202 (47.38%)
Without Clark:
Rosen (D): 131,043 (42.88%)
Heller (R): 174,527 (57.12%)

2018 Gubernatorial:
Actual:
Sisolak (D): 480,007 (52.16%)
Laxalt (R): 440,320 (47.84%)
Without Clark:
Sisolak (D): 127,193 (42.22%)
Laxalt (R): 174,104 (57.78%)

2016 Presidential:
Actual:
Clinton (D): 539,260 (51.29%)
Trump (R): 512,058 (48.81%)
Without Clark:
Clinton (D): 137,033 (41.65%)
Trump (R): 192,001 (58.35%)

2014 Gubernatorial:
Actual:
Sandoval (R): 386,340 (74.72%)
Goodman (D): 130,722 (25.28%)
Without Clark:
Sandoval (R): 162,907 (82.89%)
Goodman (D): 33,625 (17.11%)

[Schiff for Senate]

Reviving this again, here is how Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania would have voted in 2020 without their largest counties:

Michigan without Wayne County: 4,673,168
Trump (R): 2,385,311 (51.04%)
Biden (D): 2,206,875 (47.22%)

Minnesota without Hennepin County: 2,521,202
Trump (R): 1,278,092 (50.69%)
Biden (D): 1,184,454 (46.97%)

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia County: 6,196,483
Trump (R): 3,246,185 (52.38%)
Biden (D): 2,857,046 (46.10%)

All three states would have gone for Trump without their largest counties, as I had guessed earlier. So, Biden would not have won any of the Midwestern States he did without their largest counties.

Surprised MN and MI vote about the same with their largest counties being excluded. I'd imagine MN still votes a decent bit to the left of MI, honestly.

[Calthrina950]

Reviving this again, here is how Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania would have voted in 2020 without their largest counties:

Michigan without Wayne County: 4,673,168
Trump (R): 2,385,311 (51.04%)
Biden (D): 2,206,875 (47.22%)

Minnesota without Hennepin County: 2,521,202
Trump (R): 1,278,092 (50.69%)
Biden (D): 1,184,454 (46.97%)

Pennsylvania without Philadelphia County: 6,196,483
Trump (R): 3,246,185 (52.38%)
Biden (D): 2,857,046 (46.10%)

All three states would have gone for Trump without their largest counties, as I had guessed earlier. So, Biden would not have won any of the Midwestern States he did without their largest counties.

Surprised MN and MI vote about the same with their largest counties being excluded. I'd imagine MN still votes a decent bit to the left of MI, honestly.

Well, rural Minnesota and rural Michigan have become much more Republican in recent years, although rural Minnesota is still slightly to rural Michigan's left, as the results indicate. Much of the Iron Range still votes Democratic, while in rural Michigan the Democrats are effectively restricted to Marquette County in the Upper Peninsula.

[GregTheGreat657]

Minnesota without Hennepin County

Donald Trump 1,278,083 50.7% ✓
Joe Biden 1,184,447 47.0%

Jason Lewis 1,188,382 48.1% ✓
Tina Smith 1,088,387 44.0%

Jim Newberger 791,136 40.2%
Amy Klobuchar 1,106,437 56.2% ✓

Karin Housley 913,332 46.6%
Tina Smith 951,072 48.5% ✓

Jeff Johnson 915,572 46.7%
Tim Walz 970,472 49.5% ✓

Doug Wardlow 956,461 49.5% ✓
Keith Ellison 857,136 44.4%

Donald Trump 1,131,173 49.9% ✓
Hillary Clinton 938,418 41.4%

Mike McFadden 691.954 46.4%
Al Franken 774,963 52.0% ✓


Scott Newman 615,987 43.6%
Lori Swanson 752,360 53.2% ✓

Jeff Johnson 718,286 48.3%
Mark Dayton 723,291 48.6% ✓

[Calthrina950]

Minnesota without Hennepin County

Donald Trump 1,278,083 50.7% ✓
Joe Biden 1,184,447 47.0%

Jason Lewis 1,188,382 48.1% ✓
Tina Smith 1,088,387 44.0%

Jim Newberger 791,136 40.2%
Amy Klobuchar 1,106,437 56.2% ✓

Karin Housley 913,332 46.6%
Tina Smith 951,072 48.5% ✓

Jeff Johnson 915,572 46.7%
Tim Walz 970,472 49.5% ✓

Doug Wardlow 956,461 49.5% ✓
Keith Ellison 857,136 44.4%

Donald Trump 1,131,173 49.9% ✓
Hillary Clinton 938,418 41.4%

Mike McFadden 691.954 46.4%
Al Franken 774,963 52.0% ✓


Scott Newman 615,987 43.6%
Lori Swanson 752,360 53.2% ✓

Jeff Johnson 718,286 48.3%
Mark Dayton 723,291 48.6% ✓

Amy Klobuchar still would have won by 16% without Hennepin County. She is certainly an electoral powerhouse in Minnesota, although I think her appeal will diminish as polarization continues to invade downballot races.