Huckabee would be able to separate himself from W. Bush which would help him amoung moderate/conservative Democrats, while McCain would do well with suburbanites and neoconservatives. George W. Bush doesn't endorse either candidate which further helps Huckabee in this scenario, particularly in The Midwest which embraces his brand of populism.
Huckabee actually does well statewide with both rural and suburban voters in Georgia, but McCain gets put over the top due to strong support among military voters. North Carolina sees a shift towards McCain, but McCain is not able to reach Obama type numbers with Blacks, leading to a Huckabee victory.
Huckabee outperforms Trump in The Deep South due to him improving with Black voters and appealing to who would become Trump's base. He likewise is able to get nearly Romney-type numbers in The Mormon Belt due to his social conservatism, despite being from neighboring Arizona. This is the same reason he loses The Upper Midwest & Northeast.
John McCain/Joe Lieberman:337 E.V./51.4 P.V.% Mike Huckabee/Rick Santorum: 201 E.V./47.6% P.V.
