Trump turnout phenomenon confirmed, basically.
I mean, that was already confirmed by VA-GOV 2021 and NJ-GOV 2021, now wasn’t it?
Yes. If that had been a presidential year Youngkin would have won by more and Murphy would have lost. I'm not making some dramatic pronouncement. I'm just saying "when Trump is on the ballot, R turnout is very high, and results to the right of what the conventional wisdom points to should be expected." If Biden defeats DeSantis by more than he defeated Trump by, despite being considerably less popular now than he was then, the best explanation is a large number of voters simply not showing up for DeSantis the way they did for Trump.
Ummmm no. Murphy would have absolutely held on because Trump was loathed in NJ and Biden being at the top of the ticket would help Murphy.
And it would have helped McAuliffe too considering Biden won VA by 10 pts.
