Which Republican incumbent is most likely to win in 2022 in a district carried by Biden in 2020?

[Minnesota Mike]

Only the states who have finished redistricting as of today, 2-10-22, included.

[lfromnj]

Youngkim for now, Fitzpatrick once PA is done.

[Pericles]

Harris, MD-01 barely voted for Biden and that is an overperformance from the usual Democrat, and Harris as a longtime incumbent has had crossover appeal (despite his extremism).

[OBD]

It has to be Bacon, right? He’s the Fitzpatrick of the prairie.

[Pericles]

It has to be Bacon, right? He’s the Fitzpatrick of the prairie.

Possibly but Kara Eastman was also a weak opponent. NE-02 is generally a weird district, I wouldn't be that surprised if it ends up as a Democratic gain, though I'd say it is unlikely in this national environment.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kim, Harris hasn't ran in a district this swingy at the presidential level

[ElectionsGuy]

Harris, Bacon, and Kim are all very likely to win.

[coloradocowboi]

Bacon, with Schweikert as a close second. California is weird, so I'm less bullish on Kim tho I expect her to probably win too. Andy Harris should be a shoe-in but he is a lot crazier and less palatable to moderate white middle class people. It may not be his year, but his days in Congress are numbered

[lfromnj]

Bacon, with Schweikert as a close second. California is weird, so I'm less bullish on Kim tho I expect her to probably win too. Andy Harris should be a shoe-in but he is a lot crazier and less palatable to moderate white middle class people. It may not be his year, but his days in Congress are numbered

California is weird in that Kim still won a double digit Biden seat against an incumbent in 2020. Now its a biden +1 seat with a nearly non existent Democratic bench or opponent. She's safe.

[Roll Roons]

You forgot David Valadao.

I think all of these people win aside from Malliotakis (unless De Blasio somehow wins the primary) and maybe Garcia.

[Schiff for Senate]

It has to be Bacon, right? He’s the Fitzpatrick of the prairie.

Possibly but Kara Eastman was also a weak opponent. NE-02 is generally a weird district, I wouldn't be that surprised if it ends up as a Democratic gain, though I'd say it is unlikely in this national environment.

Agreed. The Republican incumbent somehow lost releection to Brad Ashford (D), in the red year of 2014 (only one other Republican, a Floridian, lost reelection that year nationally), but Ashford lost reelection to Bacon in 2016 even though 2016 was generally bluer than 2014, and Trump underperformed in the district. Though maybe the incumbent in 2014 (Lee Terry) was just weak. He made a big gaffe which I'm sure Ashford would have hammered him on (from Wikipedia):

During the United States federal government shutdown of 2013, Terry refused to give up his salary. He was asked if he would continue to collect his paychecks and replied, "dang straight". He said that he needed his paycheck to pay for his "nice house" and his child's college education, adding that "we cannot handle it. Giving our paycheck away when you still worked and earned it? That's just not going to fly."

[Vosem]

Harris and Schweikert are both in just-barely-Biden seats which are still quite substantially Republican down-ballot. Schweikert has some personal problems and credible primary challengers, but Harris looks like he has an all-clear.

So, of these, Harris. I think some of these are also very likely, like Bacon and Fitzpatrick, but those seats are Democratic enough that I don't think they're likelier to win reelection than Harris.

[Calthrina950]

Harris and Schweikert are both in just-barely-Biden seats which are still quite substantially Republican down-ballot. Schweikert has some personal problems and credible primary challengers, but Harris looks like he has an all-clear.

So, of these, Harris. I think some of these are also very likely, like Bacon and Fitzpatrick, but those seats are Democratic enough that I don't think they're likelier to win reelection than Harris.

Nevertheless, I expect for Bacon and Fitzpatrick to both win reelection this year, and it won't be particularly close. Both survived 2018, and Fitzpatrick won by double digits in 2020. They will be boosted by the Republican-leaning environment, which is shaping up to be the most favorable such environment for that Party since 2014.

[Suburbia]

Andy Harris