Redistricting questions

[MillennialModerate]

Maryland, like New York and Illinois are crucial to keeping the map anywhere close to fair. Without those 3 states it would be virtually impossible to win the house for Dems.
Currently the Maryland map is in litigation and Hogan appointed judges are the majority on the court.

Florida: What’s stopping the DeSantis map to be put into play after his veto? Again, Republican majority on the court …..

North Carolina: Dems have a one seat advantage on the court and it’s an obvious gerrymander - how many House seats would Dems likely gain from a ruling in their favor?

Ohio: Ruling goes in Dems favor but how much of a difference will the ultimately approved map be? It’s 12-3 right now if I’m not mistaken. An 11-4 is meh. But a 9-6 would be huge (that’s a 6 seat gain if my math is correct)

Finally…. *Rougly* what kind of popular vote did Dems have to get before to win the house and *Roughly* what will they need after this round of redistricting….

[Schiff for Senate]

Maryland, like New York and Illinois are crucial to keeping the map anywhere close to fair. Without those 3 states it would be virtually impossible to win the house for Dems.
Currently the Maryland map is in litigation and Hogan appointed judges are the majority on the court.

Florida: What’s stopping the DeSantis map to be put into play after his veto? Again, Republican majority on the court …..

North Carolina: Dems have a one seat advantage on the court and it’s an obvious gerrymander - how many House seats would Dems likely gain from a ruling in their favor?

Ohio: Ruling goes in Dems favor but how much of a difference will the ultimately approved map be? It’s 12-3 right now if I’m not mistaken. An 11-4 is meh. But a 9-6 would be huge (that’s a 6 seat gain if my math is correct)

Finally…. *Rougly* what kind of popular vote did Dems have to get before to win the house and *Roughly* what will they need after this round of redistricting….

As for NC, I doubt they give the NCGOP another chance to make a fair map, and do it themselves. Maybe (and I could be wrong) about 8-5-1? Or 9-5. One of those. I doubt 8-6 would work out good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maryland, like New York and Illinois are crucial to keeping the map anywhere close to fair. Without those 3 states it would be virtually impossible to win the house for Dems.
Currently the Maryland map is in litigation and Hogan appointed judges are the majority on the court.

Florida: What’s stopping the DeSantis map to be put into play after his veto? Again, Republican majority on the court …..

North Carolina: Dems have a one seat advantage on the court and it’s an obvious gerrymander - how many House seats would Dems likely gain from a ruling in their favor?

Ohio: Ruling goes in Dems favor but how much of a difference will the ultimately approved map be? It’s 12-3 right now if I’m not mistaken. An 11-4 is meh. But a 9-6 would be huge (that’s a 6 seat gain if my math is correct)

Finally…. *Rougly* what kind of popular vote did Dems have to get before to win the house and *Roughly* what will they need after this round of redistricting….

1. As for Maryland, I honestly don't know. The current maps were never overturned, and the case seems to have less momentum and media than others. Worst case it makes MD-01 and MD-06 into likely R seats and the other 6 seats are relatively safe D.

2. The State Senate has pushed back pretty strongly on the DeSantis map, generally wanting to play it safe. Furthermore, the map passed the state Senate with broad bipartisan support so a significant chunk of Rs would have to change their opinions which is possible but seems less likely at this point.

3. North Carolina is weird. The R impeachment strategy isn't going to happen for a variety of reasons; it might be flat out illegal. It's a little confusing if the Court could actually redraw the Congressional lines using some sort of special master, and if the GOP could just overturn if they win back the court which is likely in 2022 (NC allows mid-decade redistricting). Worst case the current map stays. If it's thrown back to the legislature the map prolly becomes a more solid 10-4 or 9-5 map. If the court feels they can draw it without risk of GOP overturning it you get a fair 8-6 or 7-7 map. However these maps would prolly have 1 or 2 narrow Biden seats that would go R in 2022.

4. Ohio seems likely to be 9-6 with an outsized chance of 10-5 or 8-7. There should be 4 relatively safe seats: Cinci, Cleveland, and 2 Columbus seats, as well as 1-3 narrow Biden seats in the NorthEast region, but these will likely be marginal either way.

5. Seems like the new map will a slight improvement for Dems: 225 Biden - 210 Trump with a median seat around Biden + 2.5 or so (current map is 223 Biden - 212 Trump) so really not much of a change from the current map, slight R national bias, but nothing crazy.

[MillennialModerate]

Maryland, like New York and Illinois are crucial to keeping the map anywhere close to fair. Without those 3 states it would be virtually impossible to win the house for Dems.
Currently the Maryland map is in litigation and Hogan appointed judges are the majority on the court.

Florida: What’s stopping the DeSantis map to be put into play after his veto? Again, Republican majority on the court …..

North Carolina: Dems have a one seat advantage on the court and it’s an obvious gerrymander - how many House seats would Dems likely gain from a ruling in their favor?

Ohio: Ruling goes in Dems favor but how much of a difference will the ultimately approved map be? It’s 12-3 right now if I’m not mistaken. An 11-4 is meh. But a 9-6 would be huge (that’s a 6 seat gain if my math is correct)

Finally…. *Rougly* what kind of popular vote did Dems have to get before to win the house and *Roughly* what will they need after this round of redistricting….

1. As for Maryland, I honestly don't know. The current maps were never overturned, and the case seems to have less momentum and media than others. Worst case it makes MD-01 and MD-06 into likely R seats and the other 6 seats are relatively safe D.

2. The State Senate has pushed back pretty strongly on the DeSantis map, generally wanting to play it safe. Furthermore, the map passed the state Senate with broad bipartisan support so a significant chunk of Rs would have to change their opinions which is possible but seems less likely at this point.

3. North Carolina is weird. The R impeachment strategy isn't going to happen for a variety of reasons; it might be flat out illegal. It's a little confusing if the Court could actually redraw the Congressional lines using some sort of special master, and if the GOP could just overturn if they win back the court which is likely in 2022 (NC allows mid-decade redistricting). Worst case the current map stays. If it's thrown back to the legislature the map prolly becomes a more solid 10-4 or 9-5 map. If the court feels they can draw it without risk of GOP overturning it you get a fair 8-6 or 7-7 map. However these maps would prolly have 1 or 2 narrow Biden seats that would go R in 2022.

4. Ohio seems likely to be 9-6 with an outsized chance of 10-5 or 8-7. There should be 4 relatively safe seats: Cinci, Cleveland, and 2 Columbus seats, as well as 1-3 narrow Biden seats in the NorthEast region, but these will likely be marginal either way.

5. Seems like the new map will a slight improvement for Dems: 225 Biden - 210 Trump with a median seat around Biden + 2.5 or so (current map is 223 Biden - 212 Trump) so really not much of a change from the current map, slight R national bias, but nothing crazy.

I’m confused because I’ve always been under the impression that the house was extremly rigged which is why it took a popular vote of 8% to win a modest majority in 2018.

And 225 Biden districts should mean the house has a Dem bias. Unless there is a ton of Biden/GOP districts?

And does an estimate of 225 Biden districts and slight GOP bias take into account the best case scenario for Dems of…
• Ohio 9-6 map
• NC 8-6 map
• NY goes all in for 23-3
• Florida sticking with the modest FLASEN proposal…..

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maryland, like New York and Illinois are crucial to keeping the map anywhere close to fair. Without those 3 states it would be virtually impossible to win the house for Dems.
Currently the Maryland map is in litigation and Hogan appointed judges are the majority on the court.

Florida: What’s stopping the DeSantis map to be put into play after his veto? Again, Republican majority on the court …..

North Carolina: Dems have a one seat advantage on the court and it’s an obvious gerrymander - how many House seats would Dems likely gain from a ruling in their favor?

Ohio: Ruling goes in Dems favor but how much of a difference will the ultimately approved map be? It’s 12-3 right now if I’m not mistaken. An 11-4 is meh. But a 9-6 would be huge (that’s a 6 seat gain if my math is correct)

Finally…. *Rougly* what kind of popular vote did Dems have to get before to win the house and *Roughly* what will they need after this round of redistricting….

1. As for Maryland, I honestly don't know. The current maps were never overturned, and the case seems to have less momentum and media than others. Worst case it makes MD-01 and MD-06 into likely R seats and the other 6 seats are relatively safe D.

2. The State Senate has pushed back pretty strongly on the DeSantis map, generally wanting to play it safe. Furthermore, the map passed the state Senate with broad bipartisan support so a significant chunk of Rs would have to change their opinions which is possible but seems less likely at this point.

3. North Carolina is weird. The R impeachment strategy isn't going to happen for a variety of reasons; it might be flat out illegal. It's a little confusing if the Court could actually redraw the Congressional lines using some sort of special master, and if the GOP could just overturn if they win back the court which is likely in 2022 (NC allows mid-decade redistricting). Worst case the current map stays. If it's thrown back to the legislature the map prolly becomes a more solid 10-4 or 9-5 map. If the court feels they can draw it without risk of GOP overturning it you get a fair 8-6 or 7-7 map. However these maps would prolly have 1 or 2 narrow Biden seats that would go R in 2022.

4. Ohio seems likely to be 9-6 with an outsized chance of 10-5 or 8-7. There should be 4 relatively safe seats: Cinci, Cleveland, and 2 Columbus seats, as well as 1-3 narrow Biden seats in the NorthEast region, but these will likely be marginal either way.

5. Seems like the new map will a slight improvement for Dems: 225 Biden - 210 Trump with a median seat around Biden + 2.5 or so (current map is 223 Biden - 212 Trump) so really not much of a change from the current map, slight R national bias, but nothing crazy.

I’m confused because I’ve always been under the impression that the house was extremly rigged which is why it took a popular vote of 8% to win a modest majority in 2018.

And 225 Biden districts should mean the house has a Dem bias. Unless there is a ton of Biden/GOP districts?

And does an estimate of 225 Biden districts and slight GOP bias take into account the best case scenario for Dems of…
• Ohio 9-6 map
• NC 8-6 map
• NY goes all in for 23-3
• Florida sticking with the modest FLASEN proposal…..

No 225 Biden seems like the median outcome, though it could go as high as 235ish Biden if everything else goes Dems way

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maryland, like New York and Illinois are crucial to keeping the map anywhere close to fair. Without those 3 states it would be virtually impossible to win the house for Dems.
Currently the Maryland map is in litigation and Hogan appointed judges are the majority on the court.

Florida: What’s stopping the DeSantis map to be put into play after his veto? Again, Republican majority on the court …..

North Carolina: Dems have a one seat advantage on the court and it’s an obvious gerrymander - how many House seats would Dems likely gain from a ruling in their favor?

Ohio: Ruling goes in Dems favor but how much of a difference will the ultimately approved map be? It’s 12-3 right now if I’m not mistaken. An 11-4 is meh. But a 9-6 would be huge (that’s a 6 seat gain if my math is correct)

Finally…. *Rougly* what kind of popular vote did Dems have to get before to win the house and *Roughly* what will they need after this round of redistricting….

1. As for Maryland, I honestly don't know. The current maps were never overturned, and the case seems to have less momentum and media than others. Worst case it makes MD-01 and MD-06 into likely R seats and the other 6 seats are relatively safe D.

2. The State Senate has pushed back pretty strongly on the DeSantis map, generally wanting to play it safe. Furthermore, the map passed the state Senate with broad bipartisan support so a significant chunk of Rs would have to change their opinions which is possible but seems less likely at this point.

3. North Carolina is weird. The R impeachment strategy isn't going to happen for a variety of reasons; it might be flat out illegal. It's a little confusing if the Court could actually redraw the Congressional lines using some sort of special master, and if the GOP could just overturn if they win back the court which is likely in 2022 (NC allows mid-decade redistricting). Worst case the current map stays. If it's thrown back to the legislature the map prolly becomes a more solid 10-4 or 9-5 map. If the court feels they can draw it without risk of GOP overturning it you get a fair 8-6 or 7-7 map. However these maps would prolly have 1 or 2 narrow Biden seats that would go R in 2022.

4. Ohio seems likely to be 9-6 with an outsized chance of 10-5 or 8-7. There should be 4 relatively safe seats: Cinci, Cleveland, and 2 Columbus seats, as well as 1-3 narrow Biden seats in the NorthEast region, but these will likely be marginal either way.

5. Seems like the new map will a slight improvement for Dems: 225 Biden - 210 Trump with a median seat around Biden + 2.5 or so (current map is 223 Biden - 212 Trump) so really not much of a change from the current map, slight R national bias, but nothing crazy.

I’m confused because I’ve always been under the impression that the house was extremly rigged which is why it took a popular vote of 8% to win a modest majority in 2018.

And 225 Biden districts should mean the house has a Dem bias. Unless there is a ton of Biden/GOP districts?

And does an estimate of 225 Biden districts and slight GOP bias take into account the best case scenario for Dems of…
• Ohio 9-6 map
• NC 8-6 map
• NY goes all in for 23-3
• Florida sticking with the modest FLASEN proposal…..

No 225 Biden seems like the median outcome, though it could go as high as 235ish Biden if everything else goes Dems way

Ok think about it this way. Assuming everyhting else goes pretty meh for Dems you have:

151 Biden seats under currently finished maps (so assume MD and NC aren't overturned).

+ 5 for CT
+ 10 for FL (splitting the difference of the state Senate and maximalists map
+ 2 for HI
+ 1 for KS
+ 1 for LA (though I'd say a 2nd D seat is very possible)
+ 4 for MN
+ 1 for MS
+ 2 for MO
+ 1 for NH
+ 21 for NY
+ 5 for OH (worst case at this point)
+ 8 for PA
+ 2 for RI
+ 1 for SC
+ 1 for TN
+ 7 for WA
+ 2 for WI

That gets you to exactly 225 if I did my math right. 225 is pretty humble if anything.

Obv a good 30 or so of these seats are going to be extremely winnable for Rs, especially in a year like 2022.

[MillennialModerate]

So then how will the house have a GOP bias if minimum 225 and maximum 230 of the districts will be Biden won districts (meaning 210-205 will be Trump won)

… just answered my own question as I was typing. It would be nice if Dems could get that figure closer to 240. I think around 245 would make it a dead even house (does that sound right? 245 Biden districts in a Dem +5 year is about even)



If I had my way each party would have roughly 160 Safe seats each and then every other seat would be pure tossups. But of course we know that’s not happening.

Does anyone know how many seats are likely to be tossups?

[Tintrlvr]

So then how will the house have a GOP bias if minimum 225 and maximum 230 of the districts will be Biden won districts (meaning 210-205 will be Trump won)

… just answered my own question as I was typing. It would be nice if Dems could get that figure closer to 240. I think around 245 would make it a dead even house (does that sound right? 245 Biden districts in a Dem +5 year is about even)



If I had my way each party would have roughly 160 Safe seats each and then every other seat would be pure tossups. But of course we know that’s not happening.

Does anyone know how many seats are likely to be tossups?

What really matters is not how many Biden seats there are but which district the tipping point district is. The tipping point district (i.e., seat #218 for either side) should be exactly aligned with the national popular vote if the House is not biased in one direction or the other. So the 218th seat should be a little less than Biden+5 to be fully unbiased compared to the national popular vote.

Although, yes, there should probably be around 240-250 Biden districts in that instance. There would still be a certain level of unfairness if seat #218 were Biden+5 but there were lots of Biden+6-10 districts and very few or no districts in the Biden+0-4 range (in that case it would be much easier for the Republicans to win control by winning some seats beyond the tipping point than vice versa for the Democrats).