Who had a better chance of keeping the Senate : Republicans in 1986 or Democrats in 2014

[OSR stands with Israel]

Both of these are similar senate elections with it having a party having to defend the seats it won in the 1980/2008 waves but without Reagan’s and Obama’s coattails both the republicans and democrats failed to do so.


I’d say Republicans in 1986 had a little easier chance given they lost 7 races all under 2 points which would be more than enough to keep the majority of those seats go the other way . On the other hand while it was easy to imagine democrats getting to 49 in 2014(keeping AK, CO and NC) it’s very hard to see how they get that 4th seat

[Roll Roons]

Even then, I think the only race Democrats lost in 2014 that they actually blew was CO. The margins were close in AK and NC, but Begich and Hagan didn't run bad campaigns. It's just that the environment and the partisanship of those states was too much for both of them.

Also Harkin would have likely won if he ran again.

[Pericles]

Democrats didn't have a good chance in 2014, even if the national environment wasn't terrible the map alone was horrific for them. 1986 looks like a ripple rather than a wave and Democrats just got lucky.

[TML]

In 1986, the margin of the tipping point race was D+2, while in 2014, it was R+8. That should make the answer clear.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Wasn't the economy doing fairly well in 1986?  I mean not like late 90s good, but still better than it had in 20 years probably (since the mid-60s).  President Reagan was very very popular in 1986, wasn't he?  and Democrats already had all those Southern conservatives in the House, yet Tip O'Neill, a good old, liberal Irish boy from Massachusetts, was Speaker in 1986.  ah those days seem so much better compared to our crazy times.

[MATTROSE94]

Wasn't the economy doing fairly well in 1986?  I mean not like late 90s good, but still better than it had in 20 years probably (since the mid-60s).  President Reagan was very very popular in 1986, wasn't he?  and Democrats already had all those Southern conservatives in the House, yet Tip O'Neill, a good old, liberal Irish boy from Massachusetts, was Speaker in 1986.  ah those days seem so much better compared to our crazy times.

A lot of the Republican Senators elected in 1980 weren't that strong of candidates, whereas the Democrats nominated very strong Senate challengers in 1986. That is the reason why the Senate likely flipped in 1986.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Comparing Reagan’s approvals and Obama’s approvals in their sixth years, I would say Republicans in 1986. Plus, Democrats in 2014 had a tougher map in a more polarizing era.