Are any states out of Bush's reach now?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

you said above to mddem that Bush was still slightly favored to win PA.

the most recent SurveyUSA gives Kerry a 4 point lead in Nevada, and the electoral analysis here which is ran by a Bush supporter: http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm has it listed as a toss up.

[The Vorlon]

Pardon me... But I think a few folks are getting a tad ahead of themselves on this race... IMHO.

Firstly, the polls are still close.

I have broken the polls down into the 4 main types:

Likely Voter 2 Way
Likely Voter 3 Way
Registered Voter 2 Way
Registered Voter 3 Way

(I believe I have all polls here released since the Democratic convention, but links to new polls are always appreciated )

Even without factoring in that a number of these polls have had samples/methodologies/timing/biases  which are clearly very Democrat friendly, the largest advantage Senator Kerry has in any of these averages is 4.71%, with the range of averages being from Kerry + 1.67 to Kerry + 4.71.

Lets call it 3-4% or so....



This is a partial list of "big" events between now and November 2nd.

1)  GOP Convention
2)  A new GOP VP choice (?)
3)  Bin Laden gets caught (?)
4)  3 (?) x Presidential Debates

I am sure there will also be lots more spins, whirls, twists and turns between now and November 2nd we can only just guess at.

Kerry has just has his convention - the traditional high point of the challenger's campaign.

I think that any or all of the events listed above, not to mention another 12 weeks of campaigning could easily change this race by far, far more than the handful of points Kerry is up right now.

Kerry had a Good convention, and a good week.  

Bush had a lousy week.

It's one week, and there is still a lot of water left to flow under the bridge.

A little perspective please!

[© tweed]

To Vorlon:

When bin Laden is caught in October, what % bounce do you think Bush will get?  I'm with 10%.

[The Vorlon]

To Vorlon:

When bin Laden is caught in October, what % bounce do you think Bush will get?  I'm with 10%.

When...

Not a lot of doubt in your mind...

Huge 10%+ - fairly short lived though.  October 31 would be optimal

[© tweed]

No, Oct. 31st is too close to the election.  Looks suspicious.

October 10th-ish.

[The Vorlon]

No, Oct. 31st is too close to the election.  Looks suspicious.

October 10th-ish.

Maybe announce the capture if Bush does badly in a debate - get a "two for one" - get the Osama bump AND counteract a Kerry bump he gets from a good debate?

[© tweed]

Maybe announce the capture if Bush does badly in a debate - get a "two for one" - get the Osama bump AND counteract a Kerry bump he gets from a good debate?

I was thinking, maybe before one of the debates...after would work too.

Maybe after he wins one of the debates, he gets a huge massive bump.

[The Vorlon]

Maybe announce the capture if Bush does badly in a debate - get a "two for one" - get the Osama bump AND counteract a Kerry bump he gets from a good debate?

I was thinking, maybe before one of the debates...after would work too.

Maybe after he wins one of the debates, he gets a huge massive bump.

Or save it as an "insurance policy"....?              

[© tweed]

Unless he is up 7 or 8 in October he will do it.  It's too good an oppurtunity to pass up.

[© tweed]

Nah he won't get caught (Bush that is).  And even if he is he can make up some excuse and be okay.

I just have a hunch on this one.

[MarkDel]

MarkDel, I didn't care too much for the comment of needing an influx of IQ points. I'll just leave it at that rather than attacking back. I sincerely hope Bush wins all of these, I just dont think he can. It is my personal position that today was a HUGE negative day for Bush, this jobs report was very bad news for Bush, and its unlikely the jobs situation will turn around before the election. Is Kerry 100% assured of winning all 3 of these states? Definitely not, but I give Kerry winning Michigan a 97% probablity or so, and the other two slightly lower. I believe many Republicans may be underestimating how important today was for Bush, and how it will really hurt him come election. I really don't want to see Kerry in the White House, and I'll do everything I can to make sure he doesn't get there, we'll see.

Reds4,

Woops, I'm sorry. You seem to have been a "friendly fire" casualty in my ongoing insult fest with BetterRedThanDead. I apologize, though I cannot for the life of me see how you can write off Michigan and Pennsylvania when until 10 days ago those states were essentially tied. And it is AUGUST before the GOP Convention.

Where exactly do you get that PA & MI were basically tied pre convention.  In the last 16 PA polls prior to the Convention Kerry was ahead in 14 of those 16 polls, including the last 6.  Out of the 14 polls he was ahead 11 of them were by 4 points or more including all of the last 6, and 10 of them were 5 points or more including 5 of the last 6.  How is that tied??

In Michagin Kerry led in 13 of the last 16 polls pre convention including ALL of the last 8.  9 of the 13 he led was by 4 points or more.  Once again how is that basically tied??

Does that mean Virginia, Arkansas and North Carolina are basically tied as well?  because most the polls in those 3 states have been closer than most the PA & MI polls, even before the convention.

You yourself admit that Bush was ahead in at least two polls prior to last week in Pennsylvania. I base most of my comments on a quick glance at Rasmussen Reports which polls every day. Here, Rasmussen shows Kerry up 6 points in Michigan, but only two points last month. I'm not really interested in "poll averages" because some of the polls are overtly pro-Democratic or pro-Republican, so I see no benefit to considering those polls. Rasmussen has proven themselves unbiased in my opinion even if their methodology is somewhat questionable. I also look at CNN/Gallup and FoxNews, but generally disregard Newsweek or CBS, and some others.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20August%206,%202004.htm

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 44%

State data from National Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters

July 1-31, 2004

Michigan 2004

Presidential Ballot
Bush    44%
Kerry    50%
Other    3%
Not Sure    3%

RasmussenReports.com
 
      

August 6, 2004--In Michigan, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 50% of the vote and President Bush with 44%.  Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry Michigan by a 51% to 46% margin.

Last month, Kerry had a two-point lead in Michigan, 46% to 44%. At that time, we considered the state a Toss-Up for our Electoral College projections (we require a five-point lead before moving a state from Toss-Up status).

However, our mid-month update for Premium Members found Kerry ahead by six points. At that time, we moved Michigan to the "Leans Kerry" column. These latest results confirm that Michigan is still leaning slightly in the Democratic direction.

Two months ago, it was Kerry 47% Bush 41% in our Michigan poll.

In Michigan, Kerry leads by four points among men and seven points among women.

Supplemental data is available for

RR Premium Members

Learn about Premium Membership

In Michigan, 49% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's up a single point from a month ago and two points from the month before that. It is still a bit below his national Job Approval rating.

[MarkDel]

Anyone who says Michigan, Washington and Pennsylvania are out of reach for EITHER candidate when it's still August needs a major influx of IQ points.

Anyone who thinks Bush has a shot in Michigan, Pennsylvania and PARTICULARLY Washington outta lay off whatever it is their smoking.......

Mddem,

Just out of curiousity, which of the following two statements would be judged to be more "objectively rational" by the vast majority of people...

1. George Bush has absolutely no chance to win in any of these three states...Pennsylvania, Michigan or Washington.

2. George Bush is behind in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Washington, but still has a chance to win those states because it is only August and the election is not for three more months.

Hell, you even state yourself in a later post that not all three of these states are "Safe Kerry" at this point.

[MHS2002]

Since it's still the beginning of August, no state is out of anyone's reach right now. There's a lot that can happen in between now and November 2. That said, as it stands now, I don't think Bush has much of a chance in:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Washington

Kerry isn't looking too good in:
Virginia
North Carolina
Tennessee
Colorado
Arizona

[MarkDel]

Pardon me... But I think a few folks are getting a tad ahead of themselves on this race... IMHO.

Firstly, the polls are still close.

I have broken the polls down into the 4 main types:

Likely Voter 2 Way
Likely Voter 3 Way
Registered Voter 2 Way
Registered Voter 3 Way

(I believe I have all polls here released since the Democratic convention, but links to new polls are always appreciated )

Even without factoring in that a number of these polls have had samples/methodologies/timing/biases  which are clearly very Democrat friendly, the largest advantage Senator Kerry has in any of these averages is 4.71%, with the range of averages being from Kerry + 1.67 to Kerry + 4.71.

Lets call it 3-4% or so....



This is a partial list of "big" events between now and November 2nd.

1)  GOP Convention
2)  A new GOP VP choice (?)
3)  Bin Laden gets caught (?)
4)  3 (?) x Presidential Debates

I am sure there will also be lots more spins, whirls, twists and turns between now and November 2nd we can only just guess at.

Kerry has just has his convention - the traditional high point of the challenger's campaign.

I think that any or all of the events listed above, not to mention another 12 weeks of campaigning could easily change this race by far, far more than the handful of points Kerry is up right now.

Kerry had a Good convention, and a good week.  

Bush had a lousy week.

It's one week, and there is still a lot of water left to flow under the bridge.

A little perspective please!

Vorlon,

That's what I have been trying to say in this thread, but the Left Wing natives are far too restless to discuss this on a rational basis.

[Howie]

I recall in 2000 when President Bush had an 8 point lead in Wisconsin (49% to 41%) .  I thought that state was in the bag.  I was wrong.

President Bush lost PA, MI and WA by only 4%.  Although you can argue that Kerry has the edge in those states, you can't honestly say he has them locked up.

Also, you can't dismiss the impact of the democrat convention. Although Kerry did not get a bounce, I would still expect that he is polling higher because of it.  Pundits are saying he didn't get a bounce because the undecided pool of voters is so small, but they weren't prediciting that before the convention.  I would expect that the democrat convention still has had a positive effect on the polls for Kerry that will be diminished as time goes on.  Can anyone think of an election where a candidate did better on election day than he did immediately following his convention?

Remember, Dukakis had a double digit lead after his convention and still managed to lose 40 states.  

Polls can be used as a quide but don't read too much into them.  There are other factors that come into play that you think would be unrelated to the presidential campaign.  For example, in Deleware, Bush and Gore were running fairly close in the polls until Senator Roth started fainting before the cameras.  The voters abandoned both Roth and Bush and Gore won the state handily.

[khirkhib]

Your arguing that Kerry didn't get a bump from the convention but the bump that he got from the convention will be gone by the time the election gets here.  That's nonsensical.  Welcome to the board you have plenty of allies here.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon,

That's what I have been trying to say in this thread, but the Left Wing natives are far too restless to discuss this on a rational basis.

Hey, they had a good week... let them enjoy it.

A lot of water left to run under the bridge..

[mddem2004]

Anyone who says Michigan, Washington and Pennsylvania are out of reach for EITHER candidate when it's still August needs a major influx of IQ points.

Anyone who thinks Bush has a shot in Michigan, Pennsylvania and PARTICULARLY Washington outta lay off whatever it is their smoking.......

Mddem,

Just out of curiousity, which of the following two statements would be judged to be more "objectively rational" by the vast majority of people...

1. George Bush has absolutely no chance to win in any of these three states...Pennsylvania, Michigan or Washington.

2. George Bush is behind in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Washington, but still has a chance to win those states because it is only August and the election is not for three more months.

Hell, you even state yourself in a later post that not all three of these states are "Safe Kerry" at this point.

Ahhhh.....Relax will ya, can't a Dem have a case of "Irrational Exuberence" in light of the wonderful week Bush just had???  

Of course Bush "could" win in MI, PA, and WA I just don't think its gonna happen.
All three have the potential to be within 5%, particularly PA, but the tea leaves I'm reading say it won't be so. Thats all.....

[mddem2004]

Pardon me... But I think a few folks are getting a tad ahead of themselves on this race... IMHO.

Firstly, the polls are still close.

I have broken the polls down into the 4 main types:

Likely Voter 2 Way
Likely Voter 3 Way
Registered Voter 2 Way
Registered Voter 3 Way

(I believe I have all polls here released since the Democratic convention, but links to new polls are always appreciated )

Even without factoring in that a number of these polls have had samples/methodologies/timing/biases  which are clearly very Democrat friendly, the largest advantage Senator Kerry has in any of these averages is 4.71%, with the range of averages being from Kerry + 1.67 to Kerry + 4.71.

Lets call it 3-4% or so....



This is a partial list of "big" events between now and November 2nd.

1)  GOP Convention
2)  A new GOP VP choice (?)
3)  Bin Laden gets caught (?)
4)  3 (?) x Presidential Debates

I am sure there will also be lots more spins, whirls, twists and turns between now and November 2nd we can only just guess at.

Kerry has just has his convention - the traditional high point of the challenger's campaign.

I think that any or all of the events listed above, not to mention another 12 weeks of campaigning could easily change this race by far, far more than the handful of points Kerry is up right now.

Kerry had a Good convention, and a good week.  

Bush had a lousy week.

It's one week, and there is still a lot of water left to flow under the bridge.

A little perspective please!

Ahhh..... Vorlorn your no Fun! But you are right, its still early.....

Next time I will check my "Irrational Exuberence at the Door!  

[Smash255]

MarkDel, I didn't care too much for the comment of needing an influx of IQ points. I'll just leave it at that rather than attacking back. I sincerely hope Bush wins all of these, I just dont think he can. It is my personal position that today was a HUGE negative day for Bush, this jobs report was very bad news for Bush, and its unlikely the jobs situation will turn around before the election. Is Kerry 100% assured of winning all 3 of these states? Definitely not, but I give Kerry winning Michigan a 97% probablity or so, and the other two slightly lower. I believe many Republicans may be underestimating how important today was for Bush, and how it will really hurt him come election. I really don't want to see Kerry in the White House, and I'll do everything I can to make sure he doesn't get there, we'll see.

Reds4,

Woops, I'm sorry. You seem to have been a "friendly fire" casualty in my ongoing insult fest with BetterRedThanDead. I apologize, though I cannot for the life of me see how you can write off Michigan and Pennsylvania when until 10 days ago those states were essentially tied. And it is AUGUST before the GOP Convention.

Where exactly do you get that PA & MI were basically tied pre convention.  In the last 16 PA polls prior to the Convention Kerry was ahead in 14 of those 16 polls, including the last 6.  Out of the 14 polls he was ahead 11 of them were by 4 points or more including all of the last 6, and 10 of them were 5 points or more including 5 of the last 6.  How is that tied??

In Michagin Kerry led in 13 of the last 16 polls pre convention including ALL of the last 8.  9 of the 13 he led was by 4 points or more.  Once again how is that basically tied??

Does that mean Virginia, Arkansas and North Carolina are basically tied as well?  because most the polls in those 3 states have been closer than most the PA & MI polls, even before the convention.

You yourself admit that Bush was ahead in at least two polls prior to last week in Pennsylvania. I base most of my comments on a quick glance at Rasmussen Reports which polls every day. Here, Rasmussen shows Kerry up 6 points in Michigan, but only two points last month. I'm not really interested in "poll averages" because some of the polls are overtly pro-Democratic or pro-Republican, so I see no benefit to considering those polls. Rasmussen has proven themselves unbiased in my opinion even if their methodology is somewhat questionable. I also look at CNN/Gallup and FoxNews, but generally disregard Newsweek or CBS, and some others.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Michigan%20August%206,%202004.htm

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 44%

State data from National Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters

July 1-31, 2004

Michigan 2004

Presidential Ballot
Bush    44%
Kerry    50%
Other    3%
Not Sure    3%

RasmussenReports.com
 
      

August 6, 2004--In Michigan, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 50% of the vote and President Bush with 44%.  Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry Michigan by a 51% to 46% margin.

Last month, Kerry had a two-point lead in Michigan, 46% to 44%. At that time, we considered the state a Toss-Up for our Electoral College projections (we require a five-point lead before moving a state from Toss-Up status).

However, our mid-month update for Premium Members found Kerry ahead by six points. At that time, we moved Michigan to the "Leans Kerry" column. These latest results confirm that Michigan is still leaning slightly in the Democratic direction.

Two months ago, it was Kerry 47% Bush 41% in our Michigan poll.

In Michigan, Kerry leads by four points among men and seven points among women.

Supplemental data is available for

RR Premium Members

Learn about Premium Membership

In Michigan, 49% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's up a single point from a month ago and two points from the month before that. It is still a bit below his national Job Approval rating.

2 polls OUT OF SIXTEEN.  Thats a pretty bad %.  Granted some polls tend to be off either way, and Fox/OD tends to be a good polling firm.  However, even good polling firms can be off sometimes.  The Fox Poll from June 22/23 was a real bad poll all around.  From Bush +7 nationall, +10 in Fla, +5 in PA, it was SO FAR off from all the other polls around.  Anyway the fact remains in VIRTUALLY ALL the PA polls Kerry was leading, and by 4 points or more in most of them.  Why you can make the argument that it was close pre Convention it certainly was no tie.  Same thing with the polls in MI, and Rasmussen their monthly polls are pretty weak as far as the state polls go


Anyway as I also said if you look at states like Virginia, Arkansas, and North Carolina most the polls in those states were closer than the majority of the PA & MI polls.  So if your going to say that PA & MI were virtually tied, the same would hold true for VA, AR, and NC based on your own explanations for MI & PA.