Can a Democrat win 270+ with a plurality? (no significant 3rd party performance)

[President Johnson]

I would absolutely rule this out with the current shape of the Electoral College. Joe Biden or any other Democratic candidate would need an absolute majority of > 50% to win more than 270 electoral votes unless there's a major third party candidate (see 1992, 1996). Probably Biden needs at least 51% again to win reelection, he or Kamala could still lose with slightly over 50%.

Winning an absolute majority again actually would make Biden the only Democrat to do twice besides Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama. Obama was also the only candidate since Eisenhower who won more than 51% twice.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If democrats collapse massively with Hispanics that republicans actually start winning it outright then it could be possible for a map like this to happen





In this case you could see actually a Dem electoral  vote win and a Republican popular vote win .

[Sir Mohamed]

Depends how you define 3rd party performance. I think Biden or another Dem candidate would need to win the NPV by at least 3 pts. to have a shot for enough EVs. That said, a Dem could easily lose with an NPV advantage of 4 pts. and more. Just flip less than 100k votes in 2020 and you get a tie. On the other hand, HRC would have defeated Trump with a plurality with around 100k extra votes in the Rust Belt trio.

A GOP candidate proving to be not as strong as Trump in the Rust Belt trio could lose to Biden falling short of 50%. Taking DeSantis as example, this is for sure possible:



✓ President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 286 EVs.; 49.8%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA): 252 EVs.; 47.3%


Nontheless, Biden can also the EC outright with an absolute majority in the NPV:



✓ Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA): 272 EVs.; 47.2%
President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 266 EVs.; 50.9%

[Skill and Chance]

If democrats collapse massively with Hispanics that republicans actually start winning it outright then it could be possible for a map like this to happen





In this case you could see actually a Dem electoral  vote win and a Republican popular vote win .

This is interesting and IMO a plausible future,  albeit a bit further off than 2024.  The issue I have is Pennsylvania, which was way right of the PV in 2020, even with a Dem nominee who had a personal connection to the state.  I can't  see a Dem winning PA while losing the PV anymore.  Biden's margin in Michigan was strong enough that it is IMO plausible to move it left  of the PV in a scenario with massive R Hispanic gains, and NC could follow considering there is minimal Hispanic influence there and GA is already left of the PV.  But that still leaves the Dem short in the EC.  If they narrowly held on in NM, they would win, and considering how much higher the 2020 Dem margin was in NM, this is plausible.  If this happens further in the future, the Dem could win the EC by improving enough in small cities to flip several small Western/Plains states?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If democrats collapse massively with Hispanics that republicans actually start winning it outright then it could be possible for a map like this to happen





In this case you could see actually a Dem electoral  vote win and a Republican popular vote win .

Dems aren't losing NM or NV or WI

[Ferguson97]

If democrats collapse massively with Hispanics that republicans actually start winning it outright then it could be possible for a map like this to happen

In this case you could see actually a Dem electoral  vote win and a Republican popular vote win .

So what happens here, Democrats consistently get Obama levels of support/turnout from Black voters to offset the loss from Hispanics?

[OSR stands with Israel]

If democrats collapse massively with Hispanics that republicans actually start winning it outright then it could be possible for a map like this to happen

In this case you could see actually a Dem electoral  vote win and a Republican popular vote win .

So what happens here, Democrats consistently get Obama levels of support/turnout from Black voters to offset the loss from Hispanics?

Plus further gains with college educated white voters

[David Hume]

Definitely possible. Say DeSantis wins TX, FL by 10%+ and AZ and GA by 5%+, while Biden narrowly wins PA, MI, WI.

[SWE]

As recently as 2012 the electoral college heavily favored the Democrats. Which party benefits from the electoral college is basically random and is prone to swinging wildly. Expecting the most recent outcome to be likely moving forward is how you get things like Hillary's campaign moving campaign resources out of swing states into places like Chicago and New Orleans because there was a serious worry Hillary would win the EV but not PV.

The answer to pretty much any "is xyz electoral college outcome possible?" is almost always yes.