2006 VA amendment 1 Lynchburg

[lfromnj]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=2006&f=0&off=50&elect=0

Why was it so close in Lynchburg. It passed statewide by 15 but only passed by 5 in Lynchburg.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't know why, but Lynchburg is way more than just Liberty University.  Even in 2020, I think the precincts around Liberty went overwhelmingly for Trump, but there was enough town vote with no connection to the school to give Biden the win in Lynchburg.

[lfromnj]

I don't know why, but Lynchburg is way more than just Liberty University.  Even in 2020, I think the precincts around Liberty went overwhelmingly for Trump, but there was enough town vote with no connection to the school to give Biden the win in Lynchburg.

Yes but it still makes no sense that Lynchburg was voting 10 points left of the state.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I don't know why, but Lynchburg is way more than just Liberty University.  Even in 2020, I think the precincts around Liberty went overwhelmingly for Trump, but there was enough town vote with no connection to the school to give Biden the win in Lynchburg.

Yes but it still makes no sense that Lynchburg was voting 10 points left of the state.

Might just be backlash against the pro campaign, given how obnoxious liberty universitys support of it would be

[Sol]

There does seem to be a big rural-urban divide on this, with the ban failing outright in several cities. Perhaps Democratic voters were more united in opposition to the ban there than elsewhere and the urban republican vote defected to some extent. Though why that would happen in Lynchburg but not in Roanoke is confusing..


Also, considering that this is an SSM referendum from the 2000s, these results are insanely good. IIRC it was a particularly draconian ban (outlawing common law marriages iirc?) but still, some of those results are eye-popping. Support for SSM is at 65% in Petersburg! Nearly failing in Montgomery County! Really want to find precinct results for this.

[lfromnj]

There does seem to be a big rural-urban divide on this, with the ban failing outright in several cities. Perhaps Democratic voters were more united in opposition to the ban there than elsewhere and the urban republican vote defected to some extent. Though why that would happen in Lynchburg but not in Roanoke is confusing..


Also, considering that this is an SSM referendum from the 2000s, these results are insanely good. IIRC it was a particularly draconian ban (outlawing common law marriages iirc?) but still, some of those results are eye-popping. Support for SSM is at 65% in Petersburg! Nearly failing in Montgomery County! Really want to find precinct results for this.

Yeah the bill banned civil unions as well from what I see. Still very interesting

[Sol]

Ok, so I found the precinct data.

The referendum failed in every precinct in the 2nd Ward (Downtown and Eastern neighborhoods, very Black.) It also failed in almost all precincts in the whiter and more suburban 1st Ward to the west/northwest of Downtown, which not too surprisingly is the furthest away area from Liberty. It passed everywhere else.

Overall, the results are mostly correlated with party affiliation; the heavily Democratic 2nd ward rejected the amendment, while the politically mixed 1st ward, which has some majority white Democratic areas, largely went against the amendment too. The 3rd and 4th wards are all Republican voting, though the 3rd has two pro-Amendment Obama precincts, which are both majority white but heavily Black areas near downtown. Both of these are in the built up area between downtown and Liberty, so it's probably a matter of stronger white support than elsewhere from people affiliated with the University plus anemic Black opposition to the amendment.



Here's a map comparing opposition to the gay marriage ban to Obama '08 support. Green precincts had stronger Amendment opposition than Obama support, and Blue is vice-versa.

A few takeaways:
-Black voters were much more Democratic than opposed to the amendment unsurprisingly, but Black voters clearly opposed the amendment overall, likely by a fairly large margin--perhaps around a 55-45 or 60-40 split. The amendment lost by a big margin in 2nd Ward First and 2nd Ward Second and in 2nd Ward Third by a slightly narrower margin (59%). White voters in the first two were likely pretty opposed too (because downtown) so I think it's fair to adjust the estimates downward.
-Green areas to the northwest are richer areas--can't find a fair use image but that appears to be the favored quarter looking at income maps.
-Nearly a third of people in the primary Liberty precinct (3rd Ward Fourth) voted against the marriage amendment, which is wild for 2006. Wouldn't be surprised if Liberty voted for gay marriage if a referendum was held today with this kind of data.

[lfromnj]

Thanks sol !
Surprised how close Liberty University was.

[Sol]

The results among Black voters in Lynchburg look a lot like the NC patterns I talked about here.

Opposition to Amendment 1 was concentrated in urban centers. Most strikingly, nearly all of Durham, including some overwhelmingly Black precincts. There was also strong opposition to the amendment in Black neighborhoods closer in to the urban core of most major NC cities, except Fayetteville. Opposition fades in more suburban Black communities, which voted for the amendment by and large except in Durham.

In that light, it makes Roanoke look even odder, since the cities are in similar regions and have similar demographics, and as far as I know aren't too culturally distinct. Perhaps it's a matter of fewer pro-gay affluent whites in city limits (and more in Salem or the County?)

[lfromnj]

The results among Black voters in Lynchburg look a lot like the NC patterns I talked about here.

Opposition to Amendment 1 was concentrated in urban centers. Most strikingly, nearly all of Durham, including some overwhelmingly Black precincts. There was also strong opposition to the amendment in Black neighborhoods closer in to the urban core of most major NC cities, except Fayetteville. Opposition fades in more suburban Black communities, which voted for the amendment by and large except in Durham.

In that light, it makes Roanoke look even odder, since the cities are in similar regions and have similar demographics, and as far as I know aren't too culturally distinct. Perhaps it's a matter of fewer pro-gay affluent whites in city limits (and more in Salem or the County?)

Well I think one thing may also be how active local Democrats were at persuading African Americans. We can see they were very successful in Petersburg

[Sol]

The results among Black voters in Lynchburg look a lot like the NC patterns I talked about here.

Opposition to Amendment 1 was concentrated in urban centers. Most strikingly, nearly all of Durham, including some overwhelmingly Black precincts. There was also strong opposition to the amendment in Black neighborhoods closer in to the urban core of most major NC cities, except Fayetteville. Opposition fades in more suburban Black communities, which voted for the amendment by and large except in Durham.

In that light, it makes Roanoke look even odder, since the cities are in similar regions and have similar demographics, and as far as I know aren't too culturally distinct. Perhaps it's a matter of fewer pro-gay affluent whites in city limits (and more in Salem or the County?)

Well I think one thing may also be how active local Democrats were at persuading African Americans. We can see they were very successful in Petersburg

Petersburg doesn't honestly seem too surprising in light of these Lynchburg results IMO, the gap between Black percentages and opposition to the amendment is pretty similar. Petersburg also has a decently large HBCU in VSU which probably was pretty opposed.

[lfromnj]

The funniest 06 gay marriage measure is Wisconsin which was barely 40% opposed thanks to Dane being the only county in opposition .