Should Dems hope Trump is the GOP nominee?

[Sir Mohamed]

I know this sounds ridiculous or even insane at first, but I actually thought about it and went through various scenarios.

- If Trump is the nominee and loses, his influence over the GOP vanish at some point as he lost the election twice. Doesn't matter if he refuses to concede, as Biden will be sworn in again no matter what.

- Another January 6 event is unlikely to happen because security measures and personell will be scaled up significantly. And Biden is still POTUS on January 6, ergo the commander-in-chief of armed forces, which would quickly step in at his direction.

- If Trump actually wins fair and square, it's a very realistic possibility the GOP massively suffers downballot as a major backlash against his presidency. Their voter suppression laws would also get more opposition and may ultimately not be enough to stop Dems from downballot gains. Or they will just be repealed/gutted by courts. And given a 2nd Trump presidency would be even more erratic and chaotic than the first, the backlash would be greater than against a DeSantis presidency, who may inflict more damage policy-wise because he doesn't govern with so much drama.

- If Trump wins in 2024, he'll be term-limited in 2028. Consequently the Dem candidate won't have to run against an incumbent prez. 2028 is far more winnable as an open election after Trump than against incumbent president DeSantis or after 2 terms of Biden.

What do you think?

[Mr.Phips]

I know this sounds ridiculous or even insane at first, but I actually thought about it and went through various scenarios.

- If Trump is the nominee and loses, his influence over the GOP vanish at some point as he lost the election twice. Doesn't matter if he refuses to concede, as Biden will be sworn in again no matter what.

- Another January 6 event is unlikely to happen because security measures and personell will be scaled up significantly. And Biden is still POTUS on January 6, ergo the commander-in-chief of armed forces, which would quickly step in at his direction.

- If Trump actually wins fair and square, it's a very realistic possibility the GOP massively suffers downballot as a major backlash against his presidency. Their voter suppression laws would also get more opposition and may ultimately not be enough to stop Dems from downballot gains. Or they will just be repealed/gutted by courts. And given a 2nd Trump presidency would be even more erratic and chaotic than the first, the backlash would be greater than against a DeSantis presidency, who may inflict more damage policy-wise because he doesn't govern with so much drama.

- If Trump wins in 2024, he'll be term-limited in 2028. Consequently the Dem candidate won't have to run against an incumbent prez. 2028 is far more winnable as an open election after Trump than against incumbent president DeSantis or after 2 terms of Biden.

What do you think?

Dems winning in 2028 likely screws them in redistricting again given that 2030 would be a midterm of a Dem President.  2028 is the year Dems should WANT to lose rather than 2024.

[Ferguson97]

- If Trump wins in 2024, he'll be term-limited in 2028. Consequently the Dem candidate won't have to run against an incumbent prez. 2028 is far more winnable as an open election after Trump than against incumbent president DeSantis or after 2 terms of Biden.

Yeah, and this is probably the biggest reason tbh. If DeSantis or someone else wins the nomination and beats Biden... I'd put them as the heavy favorite for 2028 simply because I cannot imagine that America would give us THREE consecutive one-term presidents.

If Trump is term-limited, and 2028 is an open race then it's easier for the Democrats to win.

[SnowLabrador]

No. He's a strong candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters don't want Corporate tax cuts in an era of Income inequality and all Rs are asking for tax cuts

Non Evangelical voters want Student Loan Discharge and more UBI checks and Rs are Corporations lobbying R politicians

Any R nominee would lose in 24 and what happened to Nikki Haley or Kristi Noem they were supposed to be president

All the Rs have is Trump and DeSantis and it's not over in FL Gov, DeSANTIS can still lose in a wave cycle to Crist.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

He'll be the GOP nominee and win in 2024, but it won't be a landslide even if Grandpa is deeply unpopular because Cheeto's just as unpopular.  2024 is going to be one of those "I hate them all" elections, and 2026 presents a golden opportunity for young progressives to run up and down the ballot against the Trump Conservatives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He'll be the GOP nominee and win in 2024, but it won't be a landslide even if Grandpa is deeply unpopular because Cheeto's just as unpopular.  2024 is going to be one of those "I hate them all" elections, and 2026 presents a golden opportunity for young progressives to run up and down the ballot against the Trump Conservatives.

IPSOS HAS BIDEN AT 47/51 WITH 3.9 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT NOT 33 PERCENT, Like QU has it, SO BIDEN IS JUST FINE

Users love to underestimate Biden this is the same Biden that helped defeat Trump and Obama win landslide in 2008/12, Cory Booker was my choice for Prez but Biden is Prez we have to do all we can as D's so that Rs don't take over, I need my student loans discharge not tax cuts that Rs want to keep giving to Corporations

And Creditors can file non payments on their taxes by debtors at end of yr and get tax credit for it

[Tekken_Guy]

I know this sounds ridiculous or even insane at first, but I actually thought about it and went through various scenarios.

- If Trump is the nominee and loses, his influence over the GOP vanish at some point as he lost the election twice. Doesn't matter if he refuses to concede, as Biden will be sworn in again no matter what.

- Another January 6 event is unlikely to happen because security measures and personell will be scaled up significantly. And Biden is still POTUS on January 6, ergo the commander-in-chief of armed forces, which would quickly step in at his direction.

- If Trump actually wins fair and square, it's a very realistic possibility the GOP massively suffers downballot as a major backlash against his presidency. Their voter suppression laws would also get more opposition and may ultimately not be enough to stop Dems from downballot gains. Or they will just be repealed/gutted by courts. And given a 2nd Trump presidency would be even more erratic and chaotic than the first, the backlash would be greater than against a DeSantis presidency, who may inflict more damage policy-wise because he doesn't govern with so much drama.

- If Trump wins in 2024, he'll be term-limited in 2028. Consequently the Dem candidate won't have to run against an incumbent prez. 2028 is far more winnable as an open election after Trump than against incumbent president DeSantis or after 2 terms of Biden.

What do you think?

Dems winning in 2028 likely screws them in redistricting again given that 2030 would be a midterm of a Dem President.  2028 is the year Dems should WANT to lose rather than 2024.

Unless they pass anti-gerrymandering legislation and ban state legislatures from having any role in redistricting.

[Hammy]

No. He's a strong candidate.

Any non-Trump Republican is an almost guaranteed win since Biden's entire selling point was not being Donald Trump.

With Trump, if nothing else, we know what to expect, and he doesn't hide his intentions.

[PRESIDENT STANTON II]

The old saying, "Careful what you wish for" comes to mind! Republicans if Trump is the nominee avoid a messy primary contest and can instead focus on Biden's mismanagement and failures on voting 🗳 rights, will depress African American turnout! Republicans can employ a catchy slogan "Had enough ?" If inflation is still a problem as are supply chain issues, could cause as much problems perception wise, than Republican control of Congress! If Trump wins, there's a downside, which is that he becomes a lame-duck as would Biden! Trump's brand of effectiveness begins to wane & who ever he selects to run with him, would emerge as the putative favorite for the nomination in 2028; Democrats will likely nominate a fresh face, someone we haven't heard much about before now or go with say Pete Buttigieg; his record as Transportation Secretary might be an asset.

[Person Man]

As much as I would like to move on from Trump, could there be someone far worse ready to replace him? I also don't want 2030 to be a Democratic midterm.

I'm torn between Trump staying a huge gorilla in the room and Democrats being able to make up for lost ground downballot. In fact, if Republicans win in 2024 and Democrats are only partially successful or not at all in 2026, it might be worth waiting until 2032 to get the WH back unless a lot of sh**t hits fan in 2027 and 2028, which is either statistically unlikely or will be absorbed in a way that makes it almost impossible for a hypothetical opposition to exploit (See COVID).