What are some hot takes about the primaries this election season?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

We've already had a thread about hot takes on the midterm elections, but most of them were focused on the general elections. What are some hot takes you have about the primaries leading up to them?

I have a few:
- Mark Brnovich will come in 3rd in the Arizona primary behind Lamon and Masters
- Fetterman will win over 60% of his primary vote
- At least 2 non-Trump endorsed primary challengers to incumbents will win (in upsets)
- Murk will lose
- One Senate primary challenger (apart from AK) will end up coming way closer than expected, but still lose (I think maybe Bequette in Arkansas)
- Perdue will beat Kemp (hottest take of them all)

[Schiff for Senate]

No offense, but aside from the Murkowski one (and maybe the Fetterman one, at least if Lamb drops out), I think all of these hot takes are borderline impossible.

For instance, there's no way Bequette comes close in AR - Boozman's by no means whatsoever at all controversial and actually has Trump's endorsement. I think you think 2022 is going to be a redux of 2010 and outsider candidates are just going to win, but I doubt this actually happens that much. The GOP primary in AR is Safe Boozman (as is, come to think of it, the general election).

[Coldstream]

Is Perdue winning really that unlikely? He’s only a few points down and in a low turnout run off I don’t think it’s impossible he could do it. I still expect Kemp to win, but I’m not sure if that’s “hot” to suggest otherwise.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is Perdue winning really that unlikely? He’s only a few points down and in a low turnout run off I don’t think it’s impossible he could do it. I still expect Kemp to win, but I’m not sure if that’s “hot” to suggest otherwise.

It seems to be the opinion of the majority of this forum that it's almost certain Kemp will win. I think Perdue's voters will turn out much more than Kemp's voters, because polling has shown that people who believe the election was stolen are more enthusiastic about the election than people who don't believe that. The results of the TX-03 primary and other poor performances by incumbents in Texas also contribute to this. I also think that in a race where all voters are made aware of Trump's endorsement of Perdue, most undecideds will go to Perdue (as that could likely be a deciding factor for more uninformed voters).