Survey USA NY 26: Reynolds(R) gets lead back on Davis(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D: 46%. R: 49%. U: 5%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=4e1d0684-60a7-4e75-a5e7-f9b88d224cc5&q=32047

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There was a phone disruption that caused the underpolling of an area that went for Davis by 11% so Davis could be ahead (this is enough of a problem that survey will do another poll on the race relitivly soon).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have no evidence that that has happened show me the link because there is not specifics on this in the poll.

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, this poll has 25% of Republicans backing Davis, yet 23% of Democrats are backing Reynolds

Dave

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/

"SUSA notes that a phone disruption actually caused this poll to undersample a crucial Democratic area that favored Davis by 11 points"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The article also states that it premature to say that Reynolds is done too.

[poughies]

Well we all know the latter... but yea after the freak snowstorm....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/

"SUSA notes that a phone disruption actually caused this poll to undersample a crucial Democratic area that favored Davis by 11 points"

Must have been a Republican blizzard.

[Democratic Hawk]

The article also states that it premature to say that Reynolds is done too.

While he would be if 23% of Democrats [shakes head] weren't supporting him . That, in itself, is worrying

Dave

[Sam Spade]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/

"SUSA notes that a phone disruption actually caused this poll to undersample a crucial Democratic area that favored Davis by 11 points"

This statement is incorrect and cannot be deduced from SUSA's comments.
While the polling info indicates that 35% of the likely voter sample came from Erie County last time, whereas only 29% of the likely voter sample came from Erie County this time, SUSA's comment does not specifically say that the voter interruption came specifically from Erie County (read closely).  SUSA is simply interpreting that a lower likely voter sample from Erie County means that the interruption must have occurred mainly within Erie County.  Although that is one possible conclusion, it is not the only conclusion.  I will qualify by saying that am not directly familiar with the area of upstate NY that the CD occupies, so I cannot say for sure whether this is a reasonable inference.

FYI, if the sample were to change to 35% of the likely voter sample being from Erie County with an 11% margin for Davis (it is unlikely that Davis' margin would change substantially), he would probably end up gaining about 1.5% to 2.0%.  Basically, if this poll is correct, the race is tied, regardless of how many voters come from Erie County or not.

[Sam Spade]

The article also states that it premature to say that Reynolds is done too.

While he would be if 23% of Democrats [shakes head] weren't supporting him . That, in itself, is worrying

Dave

Of the three polls in the race, 24% supported Renyolds in the first iteration (when he was up by 2, with the Green included), 18% supported him in the last iteration (when he was behind by 5), and 23% supported him in this iteration (when he was up by 3).  Not enough change for me to note any real movement here.

[HardRCafé]

While he would be if 23% of Democrats [shakes head] weren't supporting him . That, in itself, is worrying

Dave

It is common knowledge Davis is to the Right of Reynolds.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

While he would be if 23% of Democrats [shakes head] weren't supporting him . That, in itself, is worrying

Dave

It is common knowledge Davis is to the Right of Reynolds.

Reynolds is a wingnut with a 5.32% Progressive Punch score. That's the the lowest score of any Congressman in NY or New England (there are 13 other Republicans there). I somehow doubt that Davis is an extreme wingnut.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Davis is actually a bit of a paleoconservative. His main issue is attacking Reynolds' support of free trade that leads to outsourcing jobs. If you look at his site's platform two campaign promises he makes are that he'll "spend tax dollars if they were my own" and oppose any amnesty for illegal immigrants and seal the border.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Well Davis used to be a Republican and supported Reynolds in the past.

[HardRCafé]

Jack Davis is a Tom Coburn Democrat, so both parties have something to be happy about if he wins.