How much will Trump carry Kern County CA by?
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  How much will Trump carry Kern County CA by?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How much will Trump carry Kern County CA by?
#1
15+%		  
#2
10-15%		  
#3
5-10%		  
#4
0-5%		  
#5
It'll go D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: How much will Trump carry Kern County CA by?  (Read 1685 times)
Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« on: December 10, 2019, 09:49:29 PM »
2008: 58-40 McCain

2012: 57-40 Romney

2016: 53-40 Trump

The county is 48% Hispanic, and trending rapidly left. It is home to Bakersfield.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2019, 11:42:07 PM »
Maybe 10%. A lot of Democrats are moving to the county and they hate Trump as much as they ever have.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2019, 11:43:20 PM »
After The Purge finally concludes, probably by 2-3 points.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2019, 11:19:14 AM »
56/41
The oil industry is still the main economic engine of Kern
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2019, 11:19:57 AM »
Quote from: President Griffin on December 10, 2019, 11:43:20 PM
After The Purge finally concludes, probably by 2-3 points.

The purge ? What is it ?
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2019, 01:31:38 PM »
Probably about 10%.
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RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM »
Oh Kern County. Like Shasta County, it’s a terrible place anchored by a large conservative city. The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

Probably a bit over 10%
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM »
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2019, 06:12:38 AM »
Quote from: Holmes on December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.

I guess Kern County is the analogue to San Francisco, which is constantly bashed by the right in the same manner.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2019, 10:53:24 AM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on December 15, 2019, 06:12:38 AM
Quote from: Holmes on December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.

I guess Kern County is the analogue to San Francisco, which is constantly bashed by the right in the same manner.

No, people on the left don’t even think about Kern county. People just go there to do meth or dump bodies.

Orange County used to be a better analogue to San Francisco.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2019, 07:51:27 PM »
Probably eight or nine. It hasnt moved enough to vote democrat, but this might be one of the final times it happens in recent times, if not the last time
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2019, 08:41:16 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on December 15, 2019, 06:12:38 AM
Quote from: Holmes on December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.

I guess Kern County is the analogue to San Francisco, which is constantly bashed by the right in the same manner.
Nah that’s rural WV/KY.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2019, 08:44:13 PM »
Quote from: Forumlurker161 on December 15, 2019, 08:41:16 PM
Quote from: Calthrina950 on December 15, 2019, 06:12:38 AM
Quote from: Holmes on December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.

I guess Kern County is the analogue to San Francisco, which is constantly bashed by the right in the same manner.
Nah that’s rural WV/KY.

I meant within California, not on a nationwide basis.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2019, 08:46:08 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on December 15, 2019, 08:44:13 PM
Quote from: Forumlurker161 on December 15, 2019, 08:41:16 PM
Quote from: Calthrina950 on December 15, 2019, 06:12:38 AM
Quote from: Holmes on December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.

I guess Kern County is the analogue to San Francisco, which is constantly bashed by the right in the same manner.
Nah that’s rural WV/KY.

I meant within California, not on a nationwide basis.
Ah I see
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2019, 06:34:40 AM »
Quote from: Sen. Dean Heller on December 10, 2019, 09:49:29 PM
2008: 58-40 McCain

2012: 57-40 Romney

2016: 53-40 Trump

The county is 48% Hispanic, and trending rapidly left. It is home to Bakersfield.

That's a bit of an overstatement. In fact, so many people say this about counties that have barely moved at all it's become a parody at this point.

But I would say an 11-12 point margin. I do not think Latinos are voting more Democratic than previous 2012-2016 numbers but I think the increase in Latino % and turnout is gradually bringing the margin down.
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2019, 08:39:29 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 16, 2019, 06:34:40 AM
Quote from: Sen. Dean Heller on December 10, 2019, 09:49:29 PM
2008: 58-40 McCain

2012: 57-40 Romney

2016: 53-40 Trump

The county is 48% Hispanic, and trending rapidly left. It is home to Bakersfield.

That's a bit of an overstatement. In fact, so many people say this about counties that have barely moved at all it's become a parody at this point.

But I would say an 11-12 point margin. I do not think Latinos are voting more Democratic than previous 2012-2016 numbers but I think the increase in Latino % and turnout is gradually bringing the margin down.

I don't think so. Going from 66% Republican to 53% Republican over just 12 years is a pretty big trend tbh, and demographics don't look favorable.
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RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2019, 09:41:43 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on December 11, 2019, 11:45:03 PM
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on December 11, 2019, 11:22:14 PM
The only thing good to say about Kern (or Shasta) is that it’s a good place to be from.

No, the best thing you can say is that you left it.

(That’s the meaning I meant for it to be read in)
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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2021, 10:31:24 PM »
Thought I'd follow up on this, but 10-15% was correct
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