South Africa municipal elections - 1st November 2021

[parochial boy]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

Thanks! Here's my precinct results:

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: 91.81%
AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.19%
VRYHEIDSFRONT PLUS: 1.60%
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: 1.09%
GOOD: 0.86%

Any guesses?

[parochial boy]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

Thanks! Here's my precinct results:

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: 91.81%
AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.19%
VRYHEIDSFRONT PLUS: 1.60%
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: 1.09%
GOOD: 0.86%

Any guesses?

Cape Town? I'd guess somewhere in the Southern Suburbs or the Atlantic Seaboard

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

Thanks! Here's my precinct results:

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: 91.81%
AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.19%
VRYHEIDSFRONT PLUS: 1.60%
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: 1.09%
GOOD: 0.86%

Any guesses?

Cape Town? I'd guess somewhere in the Southern Suburbs or the Atlantic Seaboard

You got it! Somerset West.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1455897949037383688

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1455897953097244675

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1455920524635295747

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1455921245652979718

https://twitter.com/DawieScholtz/status/1455922176176140288

[parochial boy]

Soweto and Orange Farm are to the south of the city and are relatively more Zulu (mostly with origins in KZN) or Sesotho (mostly with origins in the Free State), and in the first case that obviously makes you think of Durban where the EFF also surged and of the riots over the winter.

The other three where the EFF did worse are relatively more Sepedi or Tsonga with origins in the Limpopo province, which is Julius Malema's, who is also Sepedi, home province. Unsurprisingly it has been one of the party's strongholds up until now (alongside the North West province, ie lots of mining, ie Marikana mine in particular).

No idea if that's the whole explanation, and obviously, Soweto is absolutely mahoosive in comparison to the other townships, but it makes intuitive sense compared to what happened elsewhere.

[Logical]

Is South Africa just bad at registering new voters or did COVID and its related effects kill off more people than recorded? The number of registered voters actually decreased for this election.

          Registered voters  Turnout
2014       25 388 082       73.48%         
2016       26 333 353       57.94%
2019       26 756 649       66.09%
2021       26 204 579       45.87%

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Thanks to the fragmentation there will be no majorities in Gauteng (except Midvaal) and there are no easy alliances either with the exception of Ekurhuleni. The DA and ANC could work together and they'd have the numbers in all the municipalities but it would be a dangerous game. Otherwise, the hardline demands of the parties I've heard so far are

ANC: Will work with anyone (but expects to be in the drivers seat presumably)

EFF: Will also work with anyone, but happy to be in opposition too (Malema also took shots at Mashaba for stealing his thunder this election)

DA: Won't work with EFF. Doesn't want Mashaba to be mayor again.

FF+: Won't work with EFF or ANC.

ActionSA: Won't work with ANC. Holding a vote on who to prefer for coalitions otherwise.

PA: Will work with anyone on the condition that they adopt a tough stance on illegal immigration (so not the EFF). Prefers Mashaba, who already supports such a position.

In Tshwane, which includes Pretoria, an anti-ANC alliance of just the DA, FF+ and ActionSA would fall 3 seats short of a governing majority, but 11 seats were won by small parties or independents so they'd have some room to negotiate. Some of the parties that might actually be willing to join such a coalition are

The African Christian Democratic Party: Only minor party to win 2 seats instead of 1. Hardline evangelicals, as in anti-condom hardline.

Patriotic Alliance: Anti-immigration. Apparently widely supported in Coloured areas? Pro-Mashaba so an easy pickup for an anti-ANC coalition

Congress Of the PeoplE: Social democrats. Worked with DA before but might clash with ActionSA on immigration and economic policy

Defenders Of the People: Also social democrats, I think. They have a comically amateurish website where their platform states that they'll fight corruption three times in a row like they started running out of ideas halfway through:

•Will undertake skills & expertise audits in all municipal departments to ensure that municipal officials occupy positions that they are qualified & will eliminate nepotism & sexual discrimination for jobs;
• Will deal will Corruption and maladministration accordingly.
• We will fight corruption and promote accountability.

Also if they adopted the same abbreviation convention as COPE they'd be called DOPE instead of DOP.

Republican Conference: Vague anti-corruption party tied to former DA leader Mmusi Maimane's outfit OneSA.

In Johannesburg an anti-ANC coalition of the DA, ActionSA, FF+, IFP and PA would fall exactly 2 seats short of a majority with 16 minor party and independent seats to draw from.

[Conservatopia]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

Thanks! Here's my precinct results:

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: 91.81%
AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.19%
VRYHEIDSFRONT PLUS: 1.60%
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: 1.09%
GOOD: 0.86%

Any guesses?

Cape Town? I'd guess somewhere in the Southern Suburbs or the Atlantic Seaboard

You got it! Somerset West.

Late to the party here but my family's patch:

DA 71%
FF+ 24%
ANC 2%

Hmm...

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Thanks to the fragmentation there will be no majorities in Gauteng (except Midvaal) and there are no easy alliances either with the exception of Ekurhuleni. The DA and ANC could work together and they'd have the numbers in all the municipalities but it would be a dangerous game. Otherwise, the hardline demands of the parties I've heard so far are

ANC: Will work with anyone (but expects to be in the drivers seat presumably)

EFF: Will also work with anyone, but happy to be in opposition too (Malema also took shots at Mashaba for stealing his thunder this election)

DA: Won't work with EFF. Doesn't want Mashaba to be mayor again.

FF+: Won't work with EFF or ANC.

ActionSA: Won't work with ANC. Holding a vote on who to prefer for coalitions otherwise.

PA: Will work with anyone on the condition that they adopt a tough stance on illegal immigration (so not the EFF). Prefers Mashaba, who already supports such a position.

In Tshwane, which includes Pretoria, an anti-ANC alliance of just the DA, FF+ and ActionSA would fall 3 seats short of a governing majority, but 11 seats were won by small parties or independents so they'd have some room to negotiate. Some of the parties that might actually be willing to join such a coalition are

The African Christian Democratic Party: Only minor party to win 2 seats instead of 1. Hardline evangelicals, as in anti-condom hardline.

Patriotic Alliance: Anti-immigration. Apparently widely supported in Coloured areas? Pro-Mashaba so an easy pickup for an anti-ANC coalition

Congress Of the PeoplE: Social democrats. Worked with DA before but might clash with ActionSA on immigration and economic policy

Defenders Of the People: Also social democrats, I think. They have a comically amateurish website where their platform states that they'll fight corruption three times in a row like they started running out of ideas halfway through:

•Will undertake skills & expertise audits in all municipal departments to ensure that municipal officials occupy positions that they are qualified & will eliminate nepotism & sexual discrimination for jobs;
• Will deal will Corruption and maladministration accordingly.
• We will fight corruption and promote accountability.

Also if they adopted the same abbreviation convention as COPE they'd be called DOPE instead of DOP.

Republican Conference: Vague anti-corruption party tied to former DA leader Mmusi Maimane's outfit OneSA.

In Johannesburg an anti-ANC coalition of the DA, ActionSA, FF+, IFP and PA would fall exactly 2 seats short of a majority with 16 minor party and independent seats to draw from.

Given what "Dop" translates to in Afrikaans, I'm amazed that Defenders of the People isn't a joke party anyway. On that note, I'm launching my new party, the Keep Everything Great So That Africans Now Dominate party.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

Thanks! Here's my precinct results:

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: 91.81%
AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.19%
VRYHEIDSFRONT PLUS: 1.60%
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: 1.09%
GOOD: 0.86%

Any guesses?

Cape Town? I'd guess somewhere in the Southern Suburbs or the Atlantic Seaboard

You got it! Somerset West.

Late to the party here but my family's patch:

DA 71%
FF+ 24%
ANC 2%

Hmm...

Somewhere in Gauteng?

[Conservatopia]

Woo, found the result for precinct where I was when I was living in SA:

DA - 31.3%
ANC - 21.5%
EFF - 18.8%
"Active Citzens Coalition" (seem to be a sort of local issues party) - 13.6%
ActionSA - 7.1%
Inkatha Freedom - 4.9%

Try to guess what sort a place that is, ha.

Durban suburbs?

Where do you find precinct results? I want to look up mine.

Close! South Beach, so dead central.

There available here

https://maps.elections.org.za/resultsfinder/

Just enter your address or neighbourhood and click on the map for where you are

Thanks! Here's my precinct results:

DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: 91.81%
AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.19%
VRYHEIDSFRONT PLUS: 1.60%
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: 1.09%
GOOD: 0.86%

Any guesses?

Cape Town? I'd guess somewhere in the Southern Suburbs or the Atlantic Seaboard

You got it! Somerset West.

Late to the party here but my family's patch:

DA 71%
FF+ 24%
ANC 2%

Hmm...

Somewhere in Gauteng?

Yes an old AWB haunt.

For those who don't know AWB (Afrikaners Without Brains) were a bunch of fat psycho white men playing soldiers.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A plan by Malema to give the ANC Ekurhuleni, ActionSA Johannesburg and the EFF Tshwane fell through because Mashaba didn't want to rely on ANC support. Some of the minor parties like COPE have expressed some willingness to work with the ANC but most are fairly hostile so a giant anti-ANC coalition might be the only path to quorum in Tshwane and Joburg.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A minor update with the deadline rapidly approaching:

* The Patriotic Alliance took a half dozen mayorships after negotiating to support the ANC, so they're looking like the first big winner so far

* The EFF announced they wouldn't work with the ANC because they wouldn't amend the constitution to start seizing land or something. But in some municipalities the elected candidates formed coalitions with the ANC anyway despite Malema's direct edict so we'll see what happens.

* The DA apparently is close to having quorum in Tshwane, but no progress in Joburg.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

IFP agreed to support the ANC in KZN in municipalities where they won a plurality in exchange for the same in reverse.

The DA will take the mayorship in Tshwane, backed by the ACDP, ActionSA, FF+ and COPE

The same coalition is split in Johannesburg because the latter parties wanted Herman Mashaba as mayor, but the DA wanted to run their own candidate instead. The path to forming a government is also more tenuous and dependent on the PA and IFP, who may or may not apply their agreements with the ANC to Gauteng and thereby make things even more complicated.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Dramatic turns at the last minute: the EFF voted for the DA to punish the ANC for not taking their demands on land reform seriously and Mashaba dropped out so the DA won all three major Gauteng metro mayorships. This might be a poisoned chalice though since in Johannesburg they barely have a minority and in Ekurhuleni they're dependent on the EFF, something the DA said they wouldn't allow.

Meanwhile in Nelson Mandela Bay the coalition was so narrow that the DA won the speakership by a single vote, and the political bargaining was so intense that a few hours later one of those votes switched and the ANC won the mayorship.

[PSOL]

Well this will get interesting.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In yet another dramatic twist, IFP councilors betrayed the ANC at the last minute across KZN by voting for DA and other opposition mayors, costing them many mayorships in the province. In the key ANC stronghold of eThekwini/Durban they held on by less than 10 votes.

In one township the ANC actually won a majority, but infighting between internal factions caused some to vote in an opposition mayor and executive. Maybe the ANC is already dead