House incumbent with the largest margin of defeat in 2022?

[Schiff for Senate]

Hot-take Mike Garcia among those running for re-election.

I can see that happening, and hope that happens, if redistricting really shakes things up. Garcia's a fool, and his district as currently drawn is Biden+11, so he should've lost badly in 2020. It makes sense for moderates who deserve crossover appeal like Katko and Fitzpatrick to win in solidly Biden districts, but Garcia's an average Republican who voted to overturn election results in 2021.

Keep telling yourself that man. A fool doesn't win a Biden +10 seat, even with a crap opponent.

His win speaks less to his own intelligence and more to the lack thereof of his district's Biden voters, since some obviously supported him. This sort of nonsense has happened across Southern CA; even Valadoa (to be fair, he's a legitimate moderate) and Kim won in districts that went for Biden by double digits. It kind of fits my theory that Southern California's people generally aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (no offense meant to you personally).

Have you considered that perhaps people don't conform to your personal demands, and that doesn't make them of lower intelligence than you? Clearly you're completely unfamiliar with the campaign entirely, since anyone who was knows where actual blame is laid.

Yes. You are not entirely wrong. Maybe Christy Smith ran a bad campaign, but I'm still miffed that a double-digit Biden district elected a very pro-Trump, pro-Big Lie, and non-moderate Republican. Not saying Trump voters per se are low-intelligence (though some are, you aren't automatically stupid for being a Trump voter), but it is a sign of low-intelligence to simultaneously support two people with radically different political positions, and those are the voters I'm talking about. And again, it's not as if this behaviour was a special case or unique to CA25; it also occurred in Kim's and Steel's districts; neither of them are at all moderate, yet in both cases, there were a lot of Biden-Kim/Steel voters (Steel's is minor, since her district only narrowly went for Biden, but Kim's voted for Biden by a margin similar to Garcia's). 4 of the 9 Biden-House Republican districts were in Southern CA.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Hot-take Mike Garcia among those running for re-election.

I can see that happening, and hope that happens, if redistricting really shakes things up. Garcia's a fool, and his district as currently drawn is Biden+11, so he should've lost badly in 2020. It makes sense for moderates who deserve crossover appeal like Katko and Fitzpatrick to win in solidly Biden districts, but Garcia's an average Republican who voted to overturn election results in 2021.

Keep telling yourself that man. A fool doesn't win a Biden +10 seat, even with a crap opponent.

His win speaks less to his own intelligence and more to the lack thereof of his district's Biden voters, since some obviously supported him. This sort of nonsense has happened across Southern CA; even Valadoa (to be fair, he's a legitimate moderate) and Kim won in districts that went for Biden by double digits. It kind of fits my theory that Southern California's people generally aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (no offense meant to you personally).

Have you considered that perhaps people don't conform to your personal demands, and that doesn't make them of lower intelligence than you? Clearly you're completely unfamiliar with the campaign entirely, since anyone who was knows where actual blame is laid.

Yes. You are not entirely wrong. Maybe Christy Smith ran a bad campaign, but I'm still miffed that a double-digit Biden district elected a very pro-Trump, pro-Big Lie, and non-moderate Republican. Not saying Trump voters per se are low-intelligence (though some are, you aren't automatically stupid for being a Trump voter), but it is a sign of low-intelligence to simultaneously support two people with radically different political positions, and those are the voters I'm talking about. And again, it's not as if this behaviour was a special case or unique to CA25; it also occurred in Kim's and Steel's districts; neither of them are at all moderate, yet in both cases, there were a lot of Biden-Kim/Steel voters (Steel's is minor, since her district only narrowly went for Biden, but Kim's voted for Biden by a margin similar to Garcia's). 4 of the 9 Biden-House Republican districts were in Southern CA.

Having been a staffer for Mike, it's clear who worked to win the election, and who tried to coast. Running a campaign that was focused locally, had a massive ground game, and actual outreach is what won Mike the election. Christy Smith universally is agreed to have run a bad campaign. She had almost no events, her system organizing phone banking and canvassing was a red tape filled debacle (seemed to be mandated on her?), and she simply did not seem to care enough. Mike was personally in the trenches into hard anti Trump hispanic areas and getting voters. Fundamentally, he was the better candidate, especially in California, where it seems views matter less than work.

[Suburbia]

Malionwoski.

[Schiff for Senate]

Hot-take Mike Garcia among those running for re-election.

I can see that happening, and hope that happens, if redistricting really shakes things up. Garcia's a fool, and his district as currently drawn is Biden+11, so he should've lost badly in 2020. It makes sense for moderates who deserve crossover appeal like Katko and Fitzpatrick to win in solidly Biden districts, but Garcia's an average Republican who voted to overturn election results in 2021.

Keep telling yourself that man. A fool doesn't win a Biden +10 seat, even with a crap opponent.

His win speaks less to his own intelligence and more to the lack thereof of his district's Biden voters, since some obviously supported him. This sort of nonsense has happened across Southern CA; even Valadoa (to be fair, he's a legitimate moderate) and Kim won in districts that went for Biden by double digits. It kind of fits my theory that Southern California's people generally aren't the sharpest tools in the shed (no offense meant to you personally).

Have you considered that perhaps people don't conform to your personal demands, and that doesn't make them of lower intelligence than you? Clearly you're completely unfamiliar with the campaign entirely, since anyone who was knows where actual blame is laid.

Yes. You are not entirely wrong. Maybe Christy Smith ran a bad campaign, but I'm still miffed that a double-digit Biden district elected a very pro-Trump, pro-Big Lie, and non-moderate Republican. Not saying Trump voters per se are low-intelligence (though some are, you aren't automatically stupid for being a Trump voter), but it is a sign of low-intelligence to simultaneously support two people with radically different political positions, and those are the voters I'm talking about. And again, it's not as if this behaviour was a special case or unique to CA25; it also occurred in Kim's and Steel's districts; neither of them are at all moderate, yet in both cases, there were a lot of Biden-Kim/Steel voters (Steel's is minor, since her district only narrowly went for Biden, but Kim's voted for Biden by a margin similar to Garcia's). 4 of the 9 Biden-House Republican districts were in Southern CA.

Having been a staffer for Mike, it's clear who worked to win the election, and who tried to coast. Running a campaign that was focused locally, had a massive ground game, and actual outreach is what won Mike the election. Christy Smith universally is agreed to have run a bad campaign. She had almost no events, her system organizing phone banking and canvassing was a red tape filled debacle (seemed to be mandated on her?), and she simply did not seem to care enough. Mike was personally in the trenches into hard anti Trump hispanic areas and getting voters. Fundamentally, he was the better candidate, especially in California, where it seems views matter less than work.

Okay, so Garcia running a much better campaign than Smith might explain CA25, but as I said, there's a larger pattern. Steel and Kim also won in Biden districts, and although Steel's only backed Biden by 2 points, Kim's went blue by double digits. Similarly, in a Biden+11 district, David Valadao (R) won. This is all part of a larger pattern, and while Valadao and Steel can be explained by the former being a former incumbent and a moderate, and the latter being from a district that was only Biden+2, I suspect something about Southern California's political nature also resulted in their victories, because Young Kim's win is totally inexplicable. It was a strong Biden district, and Kim was pretty conservative. And her opponent wasn't that bad. So while it's possible Garcia running a campaign superior to Smith's might be a big factor in his win, it doesn't explain the larger trend of the NRCC doing much better in SoCal than Trump did.