What counties have the wonkiest politics?

[GregTheGreat657]

Jefferson, IA has to be up there, solely based on 1992, when the Natural Law Party did better than Ross Perot

[thebeloitmoderate]

Alameda county California when the green party did better than Trump in 2016 especially in Berkley/Oakland

[If my soul was made of stone]

Jefferson, IA has to be up there, solely based on 1992, when the Natural Law Party did better than Ross Perot

Jefferson was the only county where the 1996 winner got less than 40%, again because of a sizable portion of the TM cult going for their favorite son. Hagelin also did impressively in 2000, and in 2020 it was one of Kanye West's best counties, his platform having several commonalities with that of Natural Law.

[Drew]

Kenedy County, TX.  It was an Obama-Romney-Clinton-Trump county, and has the longest “losing streak” in the country, voting for the loser in the past three elections.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’d vote for Robeson purely because of the weird interplay between religion/race that come together in the county.

One of two majority/plurality native counties this side the Mississippi, yet still with very large black and white populations (and now a growing Hispanic pop.) It’s especially interestingly as socially on things like abortion/gay rights theres not much disagreement. Most elections just come to how the dem leaning Lumbee turnout

[TML]

I’d vote for Robeson purely because of the weird interplay between religion/race that come together in the county.

One of two majority/plurality native counties this side the Mississippi, yet still with very large black and white populations (and now a growing Hispanic pop.) It’s especially interestingly as socially on things like abortion/gay rights theres not much disagreement. Most elections just come to how the dem leaning Lumbee turnout

The Lumbees have always been socially conservative due to their religious preferences, and it was Trump's protectionism that allowed him to capture this group's vote (this group has behaved in a manner similar to WWC voters without higher education elsewhere in the country).

[thebeloitmoderate]

Starr TX saw one of the fastest shifts between D And R in 2020 but yet still voted D for a century and it's nearly 100% hispanic

[If my soul was made of stone]

I’d vote for Robeson purely because of the weird interplay between religion/race that come together in the county.

One of two majority/plurality native counties this side the Mississippi, yet still with very large black and white populations (and now a growing Hispanic pop.) It’s especially interestingly as socially on things like abortion/gay rights theres not much disagreement. Most elections just come to how the dem leaning Lumbee turnout

The Lumbees have always been socially conservative due to their religious preferences, and it was Trump's protectionism that allowed him to capture this group's vote (this group has behaved in a manner similar to WWC voters without higher education elsewhere in the country).

Parochial/tribal concerns are also key to understanding Lumbee swings. Robeson was the only part of the state where there was a significant Obama/Liddy Dole vote in 2008, because she'd promised to lobby for federal recognition of the tribe.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm not sure if I'd call it wonky but Loudoun County VA is one of the biggest cluster f's in the country.  It's a toxic mix of far right Trump people and an extremely diverse new population.  Lots of pockets of Trump voters and pockets of far more urbanized completely new voters who are overwhelmingly diverse and democrat.  It's a swingy county with almost no swing voters.

[Alcibiades]

I'm not sure if I'd call it wonky but Loudoun County VA is one of the biggest cluster f's in the country.  It's a toxic mix of far right Trump people and an extremely diverse new population.  Lots of pockets of Trump voters and pockets of far more urbanized completely new voters who are overwhelmingly diverse and democrat.  It's a swingy county with almost no swing voters.

I really don’t think it can be considered a swingy county in the slightest when it voted 62-37 for Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm not sure if I'd call it wonky but Loudoun County VA is one of the biggest cluster f's in the country.  It's a toxic mix of far right Trump people and an extremely diverse new population.  Lots of pockets of Trump voters and pockets of far more urbanized completely new voters who are overwhelmingly diverse and democrat.  It's a swingy county with almost no swing voters.

I really don’t think it can be considered a swingy county in the slightest when it voted 62-37 for Biden.

Well Gillespie won it last time he ran I believe, which is a rather large "swing."  But yes, now it's a Democratic county because of urban growth. 

[Alcibiades]

I'm not sure if I'd call it wonky but Loudoun County VA is one of the biggest cluster f's in the country.  It's a toxic mix of far right Trump people and an extremely diverse new population.  Lots of pockets of Trump voters and pockets of far more urbanized completely new voters who are overwhelmingly diverse and democrat.  It's a swingy county with almost no swing voters.

I really don’t think it can be considered a swingy county in the slightest when it voted 62-37 for Biden.

Well Gillespie won it last time he ran I believe, which is a rather large "swing."  But yes, now it's a Democratic county because of urban growth. 

Gillespie lost it in 2017 - Northam beat him comfortably, 59-39.

[lfromnj]

I’d vote for Robeson purely because of the weird interplay between religion/race that come together in the county.

One of two majority/plurality native counties this side the Mississippi, yet still with very large black and white populations (and now a growing Hispanic pop.) It’s especially interestingly as socially on things like abortion/gay rights theres not much disagreement. Most elections just come to how the dem leaning Lumbee turnout

Pretty sure the most Lumbee precinct was 75% Trump.

[Roll Roons]

I'm not sure if I'd call it wonky but Loudoun County VA is one of the biggest cluster f's in the country.  It's a toxic mix of far right Trump people and an extremely diverse new population.  Lots of pockets of Trump voters and pockets of far more urbanized completely new voters who are overwhelmingly diverse and democrat.  It's a swingy county with almost no swing voters.

I really don’t think it can be considered a swingy county in the slightest when it voted 62-37 for Biden.

Well Gillespie won it last time he ran I believe, which is a rather large "swing."  But yes, now it's a Democratic county because of urban growth. 

Gillespie lost it in 2017 - Northam beat him comfortably, 59-39.

Gillespie did actually win it in the 2014 Senate race. But turnout was extremely low that year. And even since 2014, I feel like Loudoun has changed a ton.

[Wormless Gourd]

San Juan, NM is pretty wonky - 125k people, 35% white, 40% Native American, 20% Hispanic but 63-35 Trump. Trump 2020 was the second highest Republican share of the vote since the 80s, but it swung left 2016-2020 because of the huge third party share in 2016(12%) mostly going to Biden.
Also provides the largest raw vote margins for Republicans in the state.

[Schiff for Senate]

Alameda county California when the green party did better than Trump in 2016 especially in Berkley/Oakland

Actually, Trump finished second in Alameda, in both 2016 and 2020. He garnered just 14.54% of the vote, but it was still nearly twice as much as the 7.4% won by third-party candidates, so he most certainly beat Stein. There were likely precincts where Trump finished third, but overall, Trump finished (an albeit very distant) second in 2016.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Not county related but the cities of San Francisco and Seattle two of the most progressive tech hub places in America. Trump did better in San Fran than in Seattle likely because of it's decent but not big hispanic population in the former.

[Sol]

San Juan, NM is pretty wonky - 125k people, 35% white, 40% Native American, 20% Hispanic but 63-35 Trump. Trump 2020 was the second highest Republican share of the vote since the 80s, but it swung left 2016-2020 because of the huge third party share in 2016(12%) mostly going to Biden.
Also provides the largest raw vote margins for Republicans in the state.

Farmington is a massive resource extraction hub--it's like if Odessa was surrounded by reservations.

[Tartarus Sauce]

San Juan, NM is pretty wonky - 125k people, 35% white, 40% Native American, 20% Hispanic but 63-35 Trump. Trump 2020 was the second highest Republican share of the vote since the 80s, but it swung left 2016-2020 because of the huge third party share in 2016(12%) mostly going to Biden.
Also provides the largest raw vote margins for Republicans in the state.

This is because the white population is monolithically Republican. They are constituted pretty much entirely by oilfield workers and Mormons.

[Tintrlvr]

San Juan, NM is pretty wonky - 125k people, 35% white, 40% Native American, 20% Hispanic but 63-35 Trump. Trump 2020 was the second highest Republican share of the vote since the 80s, but it swung left 2016-2020 because of the huge third party share in 2016(12%) mostly going to Biden.
Also provides the largest raw vote margins for Republicans in the state.

This is because the white population is monolithically Republican. They are constituted pretty much entirely by oilfield workers and Mormons.

And turnout among the white population is much better (like, possibly as much as twice as high) than the Native population.