Most Likely Trump-Biden counties

[Alben Barkley]

Assuming a rematch in 2024, or just Biden vs. any Republican, what counties would Biden be most likely to flip he didn’t win in 2020?

[Devils30]

Collin/Denton TX, Hunterdon NJ, Fayette GA, Delaware OH, Hamilton IN

[Jamison5]

Dallas, IA is the first one that comes to mind for me just because IA has so few blue counties.

[TML]

There were 4 counties in NY state which Trump won by under 300 votes each (which amounted to a fraction of a percent in each case) - Ontario, Orange, Suffolk, and Warren. Given that all four of them swung and trended D in 2020, they could flip if such swings/trends repeat themselves for another cycle.

[CookieDamage]

Anybody think Mahoning could be one? I have my doubts

[Alben Barkley]

I for one think Monongalia, WV and Franklin, KY -- both of which I predicted to flip last time and was just barely off -- are very strong candidates this time. Of course it may depend on the climate; if Biden wins by more than before, I think they are near locks. If he loses or it's even closer, maybe not.

[Chips]

If Biden rebounds strongly in Ohio, Delaware, Lorain and Mahoning are realistic targets.

[Xing]

Among ones which haven't been mentioned yet, I'm pretty confident that Ada, ID will flip. It's been a long time coming, since it's growing quite fast, and Biden came even closer than Obama in 2008. Spokane, WA also has a decent chance of flipping.

[THG]

Among ones which haven't been mentioned yet, I'm pretty confident that Ada, ID will flip. It's been a long time coming, since it's growing quite fast, and Biden came even closer than Obama in 2008. Spokane, WA also has a decent chance of flipping.

I agree with Ada. The city of Boise has a lot of younger liberal types moving in, even if a great deal of transplants into the suburbs are in fact conservatives as well.

[Spectator]

The only ones off the top of my head are Fayette, GA; Ada, ID; Douglas, CO; Hunterdon, NJ and Collin, TX. The only ones better than a 50% shot at flipping at this juncture are Fayette and Collin. I don’t really see any others as very likely, but I expect Biden to grow his margins in many suburban places he flipped in 2020.

[GregTheGreat657]

Collin, TX
Denton, TX
Fayette, GA
Ontario, NY
Suffolk, NY
Grand, CO
Cass, ND
Monongalia, WV

[JGibson]

Oklahoma County, OK

[NOVA Green]

Oregon:

Bunch of them....

Tillamook, Wasco, and Polk jump to mind immediately.

Also, hats off to both Yamhill and Jackson County.

Reality is that all of the Crazy s**t Trump did before and after 1/6/21 isn't a winning platform in '24.

Naturally the White Male Senior Vote will be key in all of these counties where there were massive Trump> Biden swings in '20, but also tons of Obama '08 voters