White support for “No” on the recall

[THG]

While we keep debating about Latino support for the recall (which has had disputes), is no one going to talk about how whites and especially college educated whites in California by all metrics have stayed staunchly Dem?

The recall why I (and many others) got the recall margins so horribly wrong was because I assumed that while “Yes” would make some improvements among non-whites (which appears to be true) I also assumed that whites would overall support the recall and shift heavily to the right in 2020.

Here were the predictions I made right before poll closing- I don’t know if I posted them here, but still:

No to Recall +14.5 (off really badly, I admit)

GOP: 6% No
DEMS: 94% No
IND: 54% No

White: 46% No
Hispanics: 60% No
Black: 89% No
Asian: 65% No

As you can see, the non-white numbers look somewhat accurate to what they may have possibly been in reality (I mean, exit polls are terrible), but one thing is for sure- the white # is entirely wrong and probably flipped (it’s probably closer to 55% no, in fact). I actually expected the Newsom underperformance in SoCal to come from white suburbanites over there, but that appears to have totally failed to pan out.

Why do you think white support for the recall was so in line with more typical elections? I feel that a lot of white conservatives in CA have left since 2008 but also that college educated whites are very high propensity voters, and that they’re far to the left of whites in other states- I’m pretty sure even W Bush lost college whites in California by double digits. Either way, I’m interested to know what you guys think. And please keep the discussion civil!

[DrScholl]

The white vote is fairly polarized at this point. Republicans secured the rural white vote during Reagan's elections and the white vote elsewhere started to shift more Democratic to varying degrees in the decades after that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If you tie it in to policy (especially economic policy), the suburban OC whites will go to the right. If you tie it to Donald Trump, the man that made Orange County flip Blue and lost the GOP almost all of their congressional seats before the capitol riots, then you have your answer. Not a good overall campaign strategy for the midterms (at least on a nation-wide scale) but great for mobilizing the white UMC vote.

[xavier110]

I’ll try to keep the convo civil, but I think the reasons for this result are a bit, um, hard to deliver in an un-harsh fashion.

I’m a college educated white male with plenty of UMC white college educated friends. They largely feel like the Republicans now are the party of stupid people.

That’s not to say that all Republicans are stupid to them, more that the Republican Party has emboldened the dumbest Americans to be the loudest. Trump marked a turning point for them.

With COVID, these idiots think they’re the smartest people in the room and keep hijacking public spaces to tout what they saw on Facebook or YouTube as fact. It’s one thing when some morons believe Obama wasn’t born in America. It’s another when these people are dictating life or death policy during a pandemic.

When these same people are the organizers and driving force behind a recall, you’re not winning the white college educated vote.

As long as this remains the case, the white college educated vote will increasingly swing D.

[Cyrusman]

I’ll try to keep the convo civil, but I think the reasons for this result are a bit, um, hard to deliver in an un-harsh fashion.

I’m a college educated white male with plenty of UMC white college educated friends. They largely feel like the Republicans now are the party of stupid people.

That’s not to say that all Republicans are stupid to them, more that the Republican Party has emboldened the dumbest Americans to be the loudest. Trump marked a turning point for them.

With COVID, these idiots think they’re the smartest people in the room and keep hijacking public spaces to tout what they saw on Facebook or YouTube as fact. It’s one thing when some morons believe Obama wasn’t born in America. It’s another when these people are dictating life or death policy during a pandemic.

When these same people are the organizers and driving force behind a recall, you’re not winning the white college educated vote.

As long as this remains the case, the white college educated vote will increasingly swing D.

Fair response
But how come the democrat party shifting far left gets a pass with these voters you speak of?
When they used to vote Republican the democrat party was not this far left. How come these voters are giving dems a pass for their left word shift the last 5-6 years? Obviously not are, but the ones you know and speak of.

[bayareabay]

I have a feeling the "no" vote was high among whites because Marin had the 2nd highest "no" vote of all counties and OC voted no.

[xavier110]

I’ll try to keep the convo civil, but I think the reasons for this result are a bit, um, hard to deliver in an un-harsh fashion.

I’m a college educated white male with plenty of UMC white college educated friends. They largely feel like the Republicans now are the party of stupid people.

That’s not to say that all Republicans are stupid to them, more that the Republican Party has emboldened the dumbest Americans to be the loudest. Trump marked a turning point for them.

With COVID, these idiots think they’re the smartest people in the room and keep hijacking public spaces to tout what they saw on Facebook or YouTube as fact. It’s one thing when some morons believe Obama wasn’t born in America. It’s another when these people are dictating life or death policy during a pandemic.

When these same people are the organizers and driving force behind a recall, you’re not winning the white college educated vote.

As long as this remains the case, the white college educated vote will increasingly swing D.

Fair response
But how come the democrat party shifting far left gets a pass with these voters you speak of?
When they used to vote Republican the democrat party was not this far left. How come these voters are giving dems a pass for their left word shift the last 5-6 years? Obviously not are, but the ones you know and speak of.

I think the Democratic Party’s positions are somewhat irrelevant to them. They are more repulsed by the other side and cannot find any cultural common ground with today’s GOP, versus loving the Democratic platform.

Of course this isn’t true for all UMC educated white voters. Plenty still vote GOP due to taxes, a true belief in limited government, etc. Just now many are willing to sacrifice tax policy for more political stability and to rebuke the dumbs. These are the Romney-Clinton-Biden voters who may grow in ranks as the party can’t divorce itself from Trump.

[Devout Centrist]

Democrats are the party of the status quo to many White Californians, especially to those who live in urban areas. The Democrats are certainly the natural party of government here, and a lot of college educated whites see them as the more competent political outfit as well.

There's also an issue of representation. The Republican Party has no major constituency within the cities anymore. They have largely abandoned representing white homeowners in favor of rural interests, particularly ranchers, farmers, and communities that rely on natural resource extraction. Any ideas or policies produced by Republicans are designed to reward these constituencies. City dwellers do not trust the Republicans to address issues like homelessness, education, or healthcare. And why would they?

More broadly, the Party has taken on an increasingly hostile and aggressive demeanor towards the cities and indeed, the State as a whole. It's quite similar to the sort of disdain expressed by some liberals towards much of rural America. Why the hell would white urbanites want to vote for a party that hates them?

[Donerail]

And to the extent that urban whites in California are open to voting for Republican politicians, they're people like Faulconer, who project moderation and competence and are able to emphasize the issues that matter to urban and suburban homeowners. A bomb-throwing syndicated talk radio host is the exact opposite of that.

[THG]

I have a feeling the "no" vote was high among whites because Marin had the 2nd highest "no" vote of all counties and OC voted no.

Marin voted identically to how it did in the presidential election based on what has been counted so far.

[THG]

Obviously white college voters in California have been left wing for 30 years at this point, but Newsom’s margin among those voters was stunning. He won 68% of white UMC voters. Jerry Brown, who was far more popular than Newsom could ever hope to be, only won 58%.

Obviously Brown got margins amongst non-whites voters Newsom could never achieve  (Brown got 73-75% of Hispanics, give or take, Newsom got like 58-62%, give or take). But still, Hispanics don’t turn out like UMC white college voters do, which a lot of my fellow Republicans optimistic about Hispanic trends need to understand.

The GOP needs to stop the bleeding with UMC white voters and the suburbs. But how can we do that? I don’t even know.