Will Tennessee begin to trend Democratic?

[Senator Golden]

Is Tennessee beginning to show signs of a slight democratic trend? Republicans seem to be mostly maxed out in rural areas. Memphis and Nashville continue to shift to the left. Also Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Murfreesboro have shifted left too.

[THG]

Some of the support in the suburbs has slightly declined, and Republicans are probably maxed out in a lot of the rurals, so it may trend Democratic slightly.

Nothing too crazy though. I expect it to continue being an R+20 state for a couple of cycles.

[Sol]

The thing about Tennessee is that even if there are absolutely massive shifts in urban Tennessee, the rural parts of the state are so locked down for the Republicans that if you move the urban and suburban counties 40 points to the left (an extremely hefty lift) it still votes for Trump.

And tbh, I have a hard imagining anywhere in the state having anything more than a 4th of that shift. Chattanooga and Knoxville are small cities with relatively weak economies--it's hard to see something radically changing in either, despite the attempts of culture makers to sell the former to hipsters.

Memphis is already a very Democratic metro, but it's also extremely racially polarized so the main obvious path for Democrats to grow long-term is for demographic change to happen. However, the sections of the Memphis metro which are undergoing white flight and increasing diversification are mostly not in Tennessee. (This is actually very important imo for the future of Mississippi politics but that's obviously not appropriate for this thread.)

Nashville probably has the most room for Democrats to grow, and if I were a Republican in certain parts of the Nashville suburbs I would be a little nervous. Nashville is a bit like other Southern cities which have moved bigly to Democrats in recent years, like Raleigh or Atlanta, but if it's moving alone it doesn't matter too much for the state's margin as a whole. Plus, I think Nashville is likely to become less Democratic in the long run than its other points of comparison, in part because it's whiter, more evangelical, and rooted in the Country music industry and tourism catering to wealthy Southerners.

[THG]

The thing about Tennessee is that even if there are absolutely massive shifts in urban Tennessee, the rural parts of the state are so locked down for the Republicans that if you move the urban and suburban counties 40 points to the left (an extremely hefty lift) it still votes for Trump.

And tbh, I have a hard imagining anywhere in the state having anything more than a 4th of that shift. Chattanooga and Knoxville are small cities with relatively weak economies--it's hard to see something radically changing in either, despite the attempts of culture makers to sell the former to hipsters.

Memphis is already a very Democratic metro, but it's also extremely racially polarized so the main obvious path for Democrats to grow long-term is for demographic change to happen. However, the sections of the Memphis metro which are undergoing white flight and increasing diversification are mostly not in Tennessee. (This is actually very important imo for the future of Mississippi politics but that's obviously not appropriate for this thread.)

Nashville probably has the most room for Democrats to grow, and if I were a Republican in certain parts of the Nashville suburbs I would be a little nervous. Nashville is a bit like other Southern cities which have moved bigly to Democrats in recent years, like Raleigh or Atlanta, but if it's moving alone it doesn't matter too much for the state's margin as a whole. Plus, I think Nashville is likely to become less Democratic in the long run than its other points of comparison, in part because it's whiter, more evangelical, and rooted in the Country music industry and tourism catering to wealthy Southerners.

You articulated it perfectly here.

[Xing]

It could trend a bit Democratic over the next few cycles, but it’s not going to become a competitive state any time soon.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think before the end of the decade. It's a matter of time before Dems. carry Hamilton county and they have done remarkably well around the Nashville area. While the rural are trending to the right , that mostly started during the 2000's and I anticipate that'll slow or become stagnated soon, as the Reps begin to max out, although I don't see the Dems doing better. The only area I can see Reps improving in, would be around the Memphis area, but Memphis has the potential to grow as well, so it's not out of the question that Memphis could trend further to the left too. I can see Dems. winning Knoxville at some point, although that probably holds off for around 20 years or so. I don't see Tennessee being remotely competitive, but rather staying put or trending to around 20 points. If conditions are right and suburban gains are slower than anticipated, Reps might even improve slightly in the future.

[Alben Barkley]

I think before the end of the decade. It's a matter of time before Dems. carry Hamilton county and they have done remarkably well around the Nashville area. While the rural are trending to the right , that mostly started during the 2000's and I anticipate that'll slow or become stagnated soon, as the Reps begin to max out, although I don't see the Dems doing better. The only area I can see Reps improving in, would be around the Memphis area, but Memphis has the potential to grow as well, so it's not out of the question that Memphis could trend further to the left too. I can see Dems. winning Knoxville at some point, although that probably holds off for around 20 years or so. I don't see Tennessee being remotely competitive, but rather staying put or trending to around 20 points. If conditions are right and suburban gains are slower than anticipated, Reps might even improve slightly in the future.

Dems consistently win Knoxville. Just not Knox County.

[Skill and Chance]

I really think it could be Georgia 2004.  The starting point is a bit more R and the rural influence is a bit stronger, but the rural counties are already >80% Trump so, like Georgia, there isn't any place for R's to make up for Dem urban/suburban gains if they materialize.

[gerritcole]

The thing about Tennessee is that even if there are absolutely massive shifts in urban Tennessee, the rural parts of the state are so locked down for the Republicans that if you move the urban and suburban counties 40 points to the left (an extremely hefty lift) it still votes for Trump.

And tbh, I have a hard imagining anywhere in the state having anything more than a 4th of that shift. Chattanooga and Knoxville are small cities with relatively weak economies--it's hard to see something radically changing in either, despite the attempts of culture makers to sell the former to hipsters.

Memphis is already a very Democratic metro, but it's also extremely racially polarized so the main obvious path for Democrats to grow long-term is for demographic change to happen. However, the sections of the Memphis metro which are undergoing white flight and increasing diversification are mostly not in Tennessee. (This is actually very important imo for the future of Mississippi politics but that's obviously not appropriate for this thread.)

Nashville probably has the most room for Democrats to grow, and if I were a Republican in certain parts of the Nashville suburbs I would be a little nervous. Nashville is a bit like other Southern cities which have moved bigly to Democrats in recent years, like Raleigh or Atlanta, but if it's moving alone it doesn't matter too much for the state's margin as a whole. Plus, I think Nashville is likely to become less Democratic in the long run than its other points of comparison, in part because it's whiter, more evangelical, and rooted in the Country music industry and tourism catering to wealthy Southerners.

Pls talk about Mississippi I’m interested

[swf541]

The thing about Tennessee is that even if there are absolutely massive shifts in urban Tennessee, the rural parts of the state are so locked down for the Republicans that if you move the urban and suburban counties 40 points to the left (an extremely hefty lift) it still votes for Trump.

And tbh, I have a hard imagining anywhere in the state having anything more than a 4th of that shift. Chattanooga and Knoxville are small cities with relatively weak economies--it's hard to see something radically changing in either, despite the attempts of culture makers to sell the former to hipsters.

Memphis is already a very Democratic metro, but it's also extremely racially polarized so the main obvious path for Democrats to grow long-term is for demographic change to happen. However, the sections of the Memphis metro which are undergoing white flight and increasing diversification are mostly not in Tennessee. (This is actually very important imo for the future of Mississippi politics but that's obviously not appropriate for this thread.)

Nashville probably has the most room for Democrats to grow, and if I were a Republican in certain parts of the Nashville suburbs I would be a little nervous. Nashville is a bit like other Southern cities which have moved bigly to Democrats in recent years, like Raleigh or Atlanta, but if it's moving alone it doesn't matter too much for the state's margin as a whole. Plus, I think Nashville is likely to become less Democratic in the long run than its other points of comparison, in part because it's whiter, more evangelical, and rooted in the Country music industry and tourism catering to wealthy Southerners.

Pls talk about Mississippi I’m interested

Same, quite interested to hear about that

[Sol]

The big thing wrt: the Memphis metro in Mississippi is that DeSoto County has seen increases in its Black community. In 2010, DeSoto was 70% White and 22% Black, but as of the most updated census figures it's 59% White and 32% Black. The White population actually declined, even as the county grew. This trend is particularly strong in the parts of DeSoto which are closest to Memphis, such as Horn Lake (which is now majority Black), Southaven, and Olive Branch.

I don't necessarily see this as meaning Dem Mississippi or anything like that lol, but DeSoto is a pretty populous area and if it starts to resemble adjacent Southern parts of Memphis demographically that will matter electorally.

[Devils30]

Yes it will trend Dem but it is nowhere even close to becoming competitive. Dems can win Davidson by 47, Williamson by 25, Rutherford by 33, Hamilton/Knox by 23 AND still be 12 points short statewide. That is how much the rurals dominate.

Even giving these counties 20% growth and the rest of the state 0%, Dems are still 10% short.

https://elections-daily.com/the-election-shuffler/

[Non Swing Voter]

After seeing the viral anti-mask school board meeting videos I'm pretty sure not until a massive realignment.  This state seems like the epitome of the Trump movement.

[its_gi_brown]

Trends aren't too strong either way. It will probably trend D slightly, but don't get your hopes up, it won't be competitive for a long time.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

After seeing the viral anti-mask school board meeting videos I'm pretty sure not until a massive realignment.  This state seems like the epitome of the Trump movement.

The viral video came from Williamson County, which is the most educated county in Tennessee and the wealthiest county in the South.

[Podgy the Bear]

After seeing the viral anti-mask school board meeting videos I'm pretty sure not until a massive realignment.  This state seems like the epitome of the Trump movement.

The viral video came from Williamson County, which is the most educated county in Tennessee and the wealthiest county in the South.

But the wealthy and educated in Williamson mostly send their kids to expensive private schools in Brentwood, Franklin, and Nashville--not dealing with the county school board.  That was going on when I was growing up in Nashville--forty years later with a larger number of private schools, that's even more prevalent.

As for the original question, the trend back to the Democrats will be very slow and incremental.  The influx of new residents is dissimilar to Georgia.  In Tennessee, it will be less diverse and an even higher evangelical population than what is going on in Georgia.  Also, the collapse in the Democratic vote in the rural counties around Memphis and Nashville occurred so rapidly, and that will offset any Democratic gains in the four major cities (plus Murfreesboro with MTSU) for a long time to come.

[Suburbia]

After seeing the viral anti-mask school board meeting videos I'm pretty sure not until a massive realignment.  This state seems like the epitome of the Trump movement.

Exactly....TN is seen as the new home of the Trump movement, like FL...

Can Williamson shift Democratic?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

After seeing the viral anti-mask school board meeting videos I'm pretty sure not until a massive realignment.  This state seems like the epitome of the Trump movement.

Exactly....TN is seen as the new home of the Trump movement, like FL...

Can Williamson shift Democratic?

Williamson County has shifted Democratic, since peaking in 2012.  However, I suspect that the local culture is still too conservative for it to shift a lot more and that it's the sort of place that will see some level of a rebound in a post-Trump era.

[Clarence Boddicker]

It's too white, and its white voters vote like other southern whites.

[Schiff for Senate]

I really think it could be Georgia 2004.  The starting point is a bit more R and the rural influence is a bit stronger, but the rural counties are already >80% Trump so, like Georgia, there isn't any place for R's to make up for Dem urban/suburban gains if they materialize.

Well, I don't see either the Nashville or Memphis metro areas exploding in population and liberalizing the way Atlanta did at all. I think a more realistic GA 2004 might actually be SC, which is much more liberal than TN right now and thus could potentially flip in some election cycles (though I wouldn't count on it flipping in 2024 or 2028 at all).

[Skill and Chance]

I really think it could be Georgia 2004.  The starting point is a bit more R and the rural influence is a bit stronger, but the rural counties are already >80% Trump so, like Georgia, there isn't any place for R's to make up for Dem urban/suburban gains if they materialize.

Well, I don't see either the Nashville or Memphis metro areas exploding in population and liberalizing the way Atlanta did at all. I think a more realistic GA 2004 might actually be SC, which is much more liberal than TN right now and thus could potentially flip in some election cycles (though I wouldn't count on it flipping in 2024 or 2028 at all).

Ehhh... SC has the same coastal Boomer retiree influx that saved FL and possibly NC for Republicans.  Also, the black proportion of the total population is declining notably in SC.  I don't understand Dem excitement about that state unless something causes the entire South to flip.  The kind of trend that could flip SC would make LA and MS competitive much sooner. 

[Schiff for Senate]

I really think it could be Georgia 2004.  The starting point is a bit more R and the rural influence is a bit stronger, but the rural counties are already >80% Trump so, like Georgia, there isn't any place for R's to make up for Dem urban/suburban gains if they materialize.

Well, I don't see either the Nashville or Memphis metro areas exploding in population and liberalizing the way Atlanta did at all. I think a more realistic GA 2004 might actually be SC, which is much more liberal than TN right now and thus could potentially flip in some election cycles (though I wouldn't count on it flipping in 2024 or 2028 at all).

Ehhh... SC has the same coastal Boomer retiree influx that saved FL and possibly NC for Republicans.  Also, the black proportion of the total population is declining notably in SC.  I don't understand Dem excitement about that state unless something causes the entire South to flip.  The kind of trend that could flip SC would make LA and MS competitive much sooner. 

Yes, but SC is still more than 10 points to the left of TN. Even taking all the above into consideration, there's absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that TN will flip before SC does.