Why did Florida swing so much to the left in 1996?

[GregTheGreat657]

Was it because Bill Clinton was the incumbent? Did he campaign there much more? What do you think?

[TML]

Back in the 1990s, the most Democratic age/general cohort was the Greatest Generation, which comprised almost the entire senior citizen population at the time. Florida had lost of senior citizens, and Clinton's vows to protect Social Security and Medicare really resonated there.

[Annatar]

Back in the 1990s, the most Democratic age/general cohort was the Greatest Generation, which comprised almost the entire senior citizen population at the time. Florida had lost of senior citizens, and Clinton's vows to protect Social Security and Medicare really resonated there.

This is not true, Clinton won voters over 65 by 6% vs Dole, he won 30-49 year olds, the baby boomer generation by 9% and he won voters under 30 by 19% according to the Edison exit polls.

[TML]

Back in the 1990s, the most Democratic age/general cohort was the Greatest Generation, which comprised almost the entire senior citizen population at the time. Florida had lost of senior citizens, and Clinton's vows to protect Social Security and Medicare really resonated there.

This is not true, Clinton won voters over 65 by 6% vs Dole, he won 30-49 year olds, the baby boomer generation by 9% and he won voters under 30 by 19% according to the Edison exit polls.

But in FL specifically, he won the 65+ vote by 17%, while his winning margins among all other age groups were in the single digits.

[Non Swing Voter]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

[Pericles]

Didn't Gingrich try to cut Medicare? That could have boosted Clinton with seniors.

[Epaminondas]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

It didn't swing in 1992 or 2012, and I'm not sure it trended either.

[Schiff for Senate]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

Actually, FL swung rightward in 2012, and voted blue by just 0.9%.

[Mr.Phips]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

Actually, FL swung rightward in 2012, and voted blue by just 0.9%.

What saved Obama from losing the state in 2012 was the swing to him in Miami Dade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

Actually, FL swung rightward in 2012, and voted blue by just 0.9%.

What saved Obama from losing the state in 2012 was the swing to him in Miami Dade.

Was it just that? How decisive was the Miami-Dade swing?

[lfromnj]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

Actually, FL swung rightward in 2012, and voted blue by just 0.9%.

What saved Obama from losing the state in 2012 was the swing to him in Miami Dade.

Was it just that? How decisive was the Miami-Dade swing?

8 points
Obama wins by like 5k votes without that net vote change.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doesn't FL always swing to the incumbent?

Clinton, GWB, Obama, Trump all seemed to do better than expected in FL in their re-election campaigns. 

Actually, FL swung rightward in 2012, and voted blue by just 0.9%.

What saved Obama from losing the state in 2012 was the swing to him in Miami Dade.

Was it just that? How decisive was the Miami-Dade swing?

8 points
Obama wins by like 5k votes without that net vote change.

Wouldn't have guessed that. Wow.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dude this is always an incumbent thing there.  I feel like we keep seeing this happen:

1996 swung left.

2004 Bush surprisingly carried it with ease after such a close call in 2000.

2012 Obama surprisingly carried it even though he lost NC/IN.

2020 Trump's margin was surprisingly big despite losing the popular vote by more than double what he did the first time.

There's a clear pattern here in Florida. 

A lot of speculation as to why but it's very noticeable.  One thing I think may be the case is that incumbents spend a lot of time and money investing in the state the 4 years they are in office because it has historically been the biggest swing state electoral prize.  Whereas the challenger is always undetermined and has no motivation to invest there. 

I suspect that might be coming to an end with Biden though, because he was never a great fit for the state and because he, unlike Bush/Obama won without it the first time and clearly doesn't need it to win.  Plus soon Texas will overtake it as the number 1 battleground prize.  Florida's national political relevance might finally be waning.