2021 Gubernatorial Elections — Predictions Thread

[MT Treasurer]

I didn’t see one so I figured it wouldn’t hurt starting one now that the first ballots are already being mailed out in CA.

Mine:

CA-GOV: No +9
NJ-GOV: Murphy +11
VA-GOV: McAuliffe +4.5

All three races are Likely D in my book. These are not my final predictions even if I seriously doubt that they’ll change a lot in the coming weeks/months.

You can also predict the other statewide races in VA, of course (in addition to state legislative races in VA/NJ).

[Matty]

Remain +8
Murphy +15
Mcaulife +4

[Rjjr77]

I didn’t see one so I figured it wouldn’t hurt starting one now that the first ballots are already being mailed out in CA.

Mine:

CA-GOV: No +9
NJ-GOV: Murphy +11
VA-GOV: McAuliffe +4.5

All three races are Likely D in my book. These are not my final predictions even if I seriously doubt that they’ll change a lot in the coming weeks/months.

You can also predict the other statewide races in VA, of course (in addition to state legislative races in VA/NJ).

Remain +3
Murphy +11
McAuliffe +1

[S019]

CA: Lean Remain, No+5

VA: Lean Democratic, TMac+6

NJ: Safe Democratic, Murphy+12

[Skill and Chance]

CA: No (Remain) by < 1%- recount on the first question, state supreme court rules 5/2 or 4/3 in favor of Newsom with great controversy

NJ: Murphy +7.5, State Senate 23D/17R, State House 48D/32R

VA: McAuliffe +3.5, Alaya +1.5, Miyares +1, State House: 51D/49R

[BoiseBoy]

CA - Likely Remain (Remain +8 or something)

NJ - Safe D (D+12 or something)

VA - Likely D (D+6 to D+7)

I'm bad on margins, so I can't provide anything more specific than this.

[Chips]

CA-GOV: Remain+3

NJ-GOV: Murphy+14

VA-GOV: McAuliffe+6

[Thunder98]

NJ: Murphy +11

CA: Remain +5

VA: McAuffie +5

[Progressive Pessimist]

California: Keep Newsom+9.
New Jersey: Murphy+15.
Virginia: McAuliffe+6.

[Xing]

CA - Remain +7
NJ - Murphy +13
VA - McAuliffe +6

[jamestroll]

McAufflie by 2.

[Duke of York]

CA:Remain+6
NJ:Murphy+10
VA:McAuliffe+7

[Politics Fan]

Prelim predictions

CA: Remain 54.5%-45.5%
NJ: Murphy 55%-42%

House: D 50-30
Senate: D 24-16

VA: Terry McAuliffe 52%-46%

LG Hala Ayala 54%-46%
AG Mark Herring 52%-48%

House: D 52-48

[Jackson Lee]

CA: Remain +7 (53.5-46.5)
NJ: Murphy +16 (57-41)
VA: McAuliffe +4 (51-47)

[NewYorkExpress]

CA GOV: Remain +1

VA GOV: McAuliffe +2

VA LG: Ayala +5

VA: AG Miyares +0.5 (popular vote total only. Herring might still win if he decides to challenge the result in the courts).

NJ GOV: Murphy +20

NYC Mayor: Adams +50

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter Dave won't open the 2021 Predictions but we sweep them ALL

I don't even know if we're gonna have 2022 Predictive maps, Dave can put it in now and it's not entered

[Skill and Chance]

CA GOV: Remain +1

VA GOV: McAuliffe +2

VA LG: Ayala +5

VA: AG Miyares +0.5 (popular vote total only. Herring might still win if he decides to challenge the result in the courts).

NJ GOV: Murphy +20

If a state-level election result is challenged in VA, the state legislature has the final say over who won.  It's a majority vote of the whole legislature, so it doesn't have to pass both chambers.  The law gives the option of calling a special session to handle this.  Northam would presumably call a special session in December to handle any such dispute while he knows Democrats would still control the process.

[Not Me, Us]

CA GOV: Remain +1

VA GOV: McAuliffe +2

VA LG: Ayala +5

VA: AG Miyares +0.5 (popular vote total only. Herring might still win if he decides to challenge the result in the courts).

NJ GOV: Murphy +20

If a state-level election result is challenged in VA, the state legislature has the final say over who won.  It's a majority vote of the whole legislature, so it doesn't have to pass both chambers.  The law gives the option of calling a special session to handle this.  Northam would presumably call a special session in December to handle any such dispute while he knows Democrats would still control the process.

That's a really awful system. Partisan legislatures should not have the ability to overturn an election, and if this happened, I would hope the legislature would allow Miyares to take office. Not doing so would only lend credence to the far-right conspiracies about election fraud.

[Skill and Chance]

CA GOV: Remain +1

VA GOV: McAuliffe +2

VA LG: Ayala +5

VA: AG Miyares +0.5 (popular vote total only. Herring might still win if he decides to challenge the result in the courts).

NJ GOV: Murphy +20

If a state-level election result is challenged in VA, the state legislature has the final say over who won.  It's a majority vote of the whole legislature, so it doesn't have to pass both chambers.  The law gives the option of calling a special session to handle this.  Northam would presumably call a special session in December to handle any such dispute while he knows Democrats would still control the process.

That's a really awful system. Partisan legislatures should not have the ability to overturn an election, and if this happened, I would hope the legislature would allow Miyares to take office. Not doing so would only lend credence to the far-right conspiracies about election fraud.

I agree, it would be incredibly hypocritical for VA Dems to do this after the 2020 chaos. 

There is some possibility that R's could try this if they have flipped the lower house (they only need to get to 52 to pick the winner on a party-line vote in January), in which case, Northam and Dems would probably try to ram through a special session in December with the lame duck legislature.  The losing candidate has to file the contest within 3 days of a recount ending.

[Progressive Pessimist]

CA GOV: Remain +1

VA GOV: McAuliffe +2

VA LG: Ayala +5

VA: AG Miyares +0.5 (popular vote total only. Herring might still win if he decides to challenge the result in the courts).

NJ GOV: Murphy +20

No chance. New Jersey has a pretty hard ceiling for Democrats of about 16 points, give or take a half a percentage or so. 2004 and 2012 were fluke outliers in our modern electoral history.

[Suburbia]

CA GOV: Remain+9
VA-GOV: McAuliffe+4
NJ-GOV: Murphy+11
NYC-Mayor: Adams+48

[LabourJersey]

CA-GOV: Retain Newsom +6 (shouldn't it be "retain" and not "remain"?)

NJ-GOV: Murphy +13

VA-GOV: McAuliffe +5