INTERNAL NY 25:Walsh(R) leads Muffei(D) by only 4 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D: 40%, R: 44%, U: 14%

http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/docs/Maffei_Poll_Summary.pdf

[Eraserhead]

Nice.

[poughies]

Now, I don't want anyone saying this a great poll, while chastizing the Ford poll. Its the same company.

[MarkWarner08]

Good news. I actually think Maffei has a better shot than Gillibrand.

If Bush's approval in NY is lower than 33%, I predict the following for the NY House races: Democrats pick up NY-20, NY-24, NY-25 and come John Hall come close.

If Bush's approval's above 35%, I predict the following for the NY House races:
Democrats pick up NY-24 and come close in NY-19, NY-20 and NY-25.


Rep. James Walsh is on the precipice of defeat. But Walsh will survive if Bush's approvals rise any farther. This is one of the Congressional races that will be decided by the national climate.

Let's hope Bill "Big Dog" Clinton fires up the Democrats.

[jerusalemcar5]

1)If Bush's approval in NY is lower than 33%, I predict the following for the NY House races: Democrats pick up NY-20, NY-24, NY-25 and come John Hall come close.

If Bush's approval's above 35%, I predict the following for the NY House races:
Democrats pick up NY-24 and come close in NY-19, NY-20 and NY-25.

2)Rep. James Walsh is on the precipice of defeat. But Walsh will survive if Bush's approvals rise any farther. This is one of the Congressional races that will be decided by the national climate.

1)You are foregetting the influence of NYC area.  State polls matter little because we are dominated by the counties south of the PA border hat are very Democratic.

2)No he isn't.  Walsh has been elected nine times here.  He was previously elected Common Council President (like Vice/Lt. Mayor) in liberal and Democratic Syracuse. He is not on the "precipe" of defeat.  Sure he may be on some shaky ground, but incumbency, especially long term, buys you a lot around here.  Walsh will most likely survive this year on incumbency, general popularity, and his ability to bring home pork.  However he may be vulnerable in the future against a better challenger due to the shattering of his McCain-like false moderate mask.  Dan Maffei, though?  He's a nobody.  If the current Common Council Preisdent had run, then we'd have a race.  Or even state Sen. Valesky,

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats are definitely pickupin NY-24. 

[jerusalemcar5]

Democrats are definitely pickupin NY-24. 

Ray Meier is much better equipped.  I think it'll be very close.  I wouldn't call it just yet.

[MarkWarner08]

1)If Bush's approval in NY is lower than 33%, I predict the following for the NY House races: Democrats pick up NY-20, NY-24, NY-25 and come John Hall come close.

If Bush's approval's above 35%, I predict the following for the NY House races:
Democrats pick up NY-24 and come close in NY-19, NY-20 and NY-25.

2)Rep. James Walsh is on the precipice of defeat. But Walsh will survive if Bush's approvals rise any farther. This is one of the Congressional races that will be decided by the national climate.

1)You are foregetting the influence of NYC area.  State polls matter little because we are dominated by the counties south of the PA border hat are very Democratic.

2)No he isn't.  Walsh has been elected nine times here.  He was previously elected Common Council President (like Vice/Lt. Mayor) in liberal and Democratic Syracuse. He is not on the "precipe" of defeat.  Sure he may be on some shaky ground, but incumbency, especially long term, buys you a lot around here.  Walsh will most likely survive this year on incumbency, general popularity, and his ability to bring home pork.  However he may be vulnerable in the future against a better challenger due to the shattering of his McCain-like false moderate mask.  Dan Maffei, though?  He's a nobody.  If the current Common Council Preisdent had run, then we'd have a race.  Or even state Sen. Valesky,

Walsh may be personally popular, but he's in a Syracuse district that's susceptible to national trends. Kerry carried this district by 4% and I've hear Bush is pull at 35% in this district.

I understand NYC's impact on polling, but that doesn't discount Bush's unpopularity even in traditionally conservative areas such as Upstate New York.

[MAS117]

This is my "new" district. Maffei is running a good campaign so far. It is going to be close. My friend, a top advisor to Maffei, said this poll is pretty accurate. Maffei was recently added to the DCCC Red to Blue list as well opening up more resources to him.

[jerusalemcar5]

1)If Bush's approval in NY is lower than 33%, I predict the following for the NY House races: Democrats pick up NY-20, NY-24, NY-25 and come John Hall come close.

If Bush's approval's above 35%, I predict the following for the NY House races:
Democrats pick up NY-24 and come close in NY-19, NY-20 and NY-25.

2)Rep. James Walsh is on the precipice of defeat. But Walsh will survive if Bush's approvals rise any farther. This is one of the Congressional races that will be decided by the national climate.

1)You are foregetting the influence of NYC area.  State polls matter little because we are dominated by the counties south of the PA border hat are very Democratic.

2)No he isn't.  Walsh has been elected nine times here.  He was previously elected Common Council President (like Vice/Lt. Mayor) in liberal and Democratic Syracuse. He is not on the "precipe" of defeat.  Sure he may be on some shaky ground, but incumbency, especially long term, buys you a lot around here.  Walsh will most likely survive this year on incumbency, general popularity, and his ability to bring home pork.  However he may be vulnerable in the future against a better challenger due to the shattering of his McCain-like false moderate mask.  Dan Maffei, though?  He's a nobody.  If the current Common Council Preisdent had run, then we'd have a race.  Or even state Sen. Valesky,

Walsh may be personally popular, but he's in a Syracuse district that's susceptible to national trends. Kerry carried this district by 4% and I've hear Bush is pull at 35% in this district.

I understand NYC's impact on polling, but that doesn't discount Bush's unpopularity even in traditionally conservative areas such as Upstate New York.

This district is susceptible sure, but I would not say that there is a large enough trend to block Walsh.  He will win by probably his smallest margin ever, but many people don't see a connection between Bush and Walsh.

Our district is mostly decided on economic issues since we are dominated by wealthy Syracuse suburbs.  This will have a very interesting outcome on this race because federally, taxes are not really an issue here.

Personally, I think DeWitt will tell you who wins this race.  If Maffei gets 55% here, he wins, if he gets less, he will probably lose.  Actually, where are town results for the presidential election?