ANALYSIS: How will Colorado, Washington State, Utah, Oregon, and California vote in the year 2032?

[THG]

WARNING: VERY HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

This is also 2032, not 2024 or even 2028.


Colorado: D+19-27 point win.

At the very least votes to the left of states such as Virginia, Connecticut, New Jersey, or Illinois. Outside of some WWC/Hispanic areas in the Southern part of the state (or potentially suburban counties such as Adams or Pueblo), this state is doom for Republicans. The Denver Area is the new Bay Area and votes like it, and the state becomes a sort of white college educated liberal haven, with the whole state overall being somewhat (though not exactly) akin to what California was in the 90's or even the early naughts, or somewhat akin to what Oregon was in the 2000's and early to-mid 2010's.


Washington State: D+21-30 point win.

I am not proficient whatsoever about Washington politics, so feel free to correct me if I am horribly wrong (which I may be).

The Seattle Metro keeps expanding in population and as in Colorado, the only trends benefitting Republicans are the WWC and Hispanic rural areas trending further rightwards. Democrats probably consistently get 80% of the vote in King County and Snohomish probably goes above 65% Dem. I don't know enough about Spokane, Pierce, or any of the other large counties' trends to comment.

Utah: 14-24 point Republican win.

Even with Trump gone and the next GOP nominee hypothetically not being as bad as a fit for the state, I believe that SLC will explode in growth and become more liberal than it is now, especially after Colorado and the PNW become old news for the same California liberals who made them such dark blue states. However, the rest of the state (outside of some ski resorts) is simply not going to trend blue, as it is still extremely Mormon and conservative. And as a half Mormon I can anecdotally confirm much of this.

Still, SLC's district will probably be impossible to gerrymander by then.

Oregon: 11-21 point Democratic win.

I believe that the Democrats may actually be somewhat maxed out in the city of Portland itself but I don't believe this to be true for say, the Bend area or the suburbs of Portland. Now again- I hardly expect Oregon to trend left like Colorado or Washington, but it will probably still be fairly blue. Also, the rurals will probably get even redder, but that will not impact the state's politics too massively.

California: 15-25 point Democratic win (yes, you read that right).

This is potentially the hottest take of them all, and I'm very ready to catch a lot of flack from it. But I do believe that Democrats were maxed out in that state during the Trump years, and even if Republicans don't exactly gain a huge amount in this state, I can't really see them losing any further from '16 and '20.

Wait, why is this THG? A variety of them. There are two main trends in California: 1) Republicans are fleeing the state and the swingy suburban vote is shifting left, and 2) Democrats are maxed out among non-college voters and minorities (which are mostly Asians and Latinos, many of whom are non-college voters).

The first one is obviously bad for the GOP in California (but probably good elsewhere) but the second isn't talked about as much and is why I cannot foresee the Democrats gaining much more ground in California- as voting patterns slowly get marginally less racially polarized as we saw in 2020 (again, even in California, where they're far more liberal than Hispanics or even Asians in say TX/FL). And California is getting more dominated by the types of voters I mentioned in #2- which may have been an awful sign in 2012, but not so much in 2021 (unless we somehow have another mini re-alignment).

For instance- I believe that while Democrats probably have room to gain in say, San Diego County (more so the affluent Northern suburbs such as Torrey Pines and La Jolla, which are currently voting to the left of cities like Chula Vista and National City) or the Sacramento area (particularly the suburbs of Sac like El Dorado and especially Placer County), they are maxed out in the Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Bernandino, the Inland Empire, and Central Valley- again, due to them being maxed out with non-college voters in the state, many of which whom are non-Whites.

Regardless of the margins/results of the recall election (which it absolutely seems all but inevitable to fail at this point, lol, though we can debate about the margins in the replies below) you may see some of these trends materialize in the state's recall result/margins, with Newsom's support probably declining massively among many parts of the Central Valley and SoCal, but him going strong in very affluent areas (especially the Bay).  


Again, I would say that all of this points to CA being a 15-25 point win for the Democrats there, but this also depends on how many Republicans actually flee the state, and how much Hispanics or Asians actually trend to the right.





Anyhow I hope you enjoyed my rambling. Feel free to reply to this.

[THG]

Feel free to bump this thread in 2032 and mock my predictions if they turn out to be wrong.

[patzer]

Sounds like a reasonable prediction to me.

[_.]

While I don't wholeheartedly agree with them, these are very reasonable predictions and I would be unsurprised if many of them came true.

Honestly the direction these states trend mainly depends on the direction in which the two current political parties go and what their positions are. I have no idea what they'll be and how it'll look, so I'm not even trying to predict.

[THG]

While I don't wholeheartedly agree with them, these are very reasonable predictions and I would be unsurprised if many of them came true.

Honestly the direction these states trend mainly depends on the direction in which the two current political parties go and what their positions are. I have no idea what they'll be and how it'll look, so I'm not even trying to predict.

I think the Republicans will remain similar if less outright Trumpy. Possibly a bit more economically populist, however.

The Democrats will become even more socially liberal but idk about their economic policies. Again, possibly a little bit more economically populist.

[Roll Roons]

Also if California gives Democrats 20 point margins rather than 30, that probably closes the Electoral College-Popular Vote gap somewhat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

[THG]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

[OSR stands with Israel]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

Those areas tend to be more working class and also have more of the small town vibe as well.

[THG]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

Those areas tend to be more working class and also have more of the small town vibe as well.

I see.

Is Portland maxed out for Dems? And I mean by population growth. Are there still a great deal of liberal transplants into Oregon?

[OSR stands with Israel]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

Those areas tend to be more working class and also have more of the small town vibe as well.

I see.

Is Portland maxed out for Dems? And I mean by population growth. Are there still a great deal of liberal transplants into Oregon?

I would say the city itself is maxed out though sadly its suburbs arent yet. Theoretically we should be doing better in places like Gresham but those areas are trending D too

[THG]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

Those areas tend to be more working class and also have more of the small town vibe as well.

I see.

Is Portland maxed out for Dems? And I mean by population growth. Are there still a great deal of liberal transplants into Oregon?

I would say the city itself is maxed out though sadly its suburbs arent yet. Theoretically we should be doing better in places like Gresham but those areas are trending D too

More Bay Area transplants like there are in Bend?

[OSR stands with Israel]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

Those areas tend to be more working class and also have more of the small town vibe as well.

I see.

Is Portland maxed out for Dems? And I mean by population growth. Are there still a great deal of liberal transplants into Oregon?

I would say the city itself is maxed out though sadly its suburbs arent yet. Theoretically we should be doing better in places like Gresham but those areas are trending D too

More Bay Area transplants like there are in Bend?

ehh more like young voters here are even more lib than their parents who are already lib

[Kamala's side hoe]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

That would explain why your OP has CO voting noticeably more D than OR, and CA potentially voting more R than WA in the next 2-3 cycles.

Re: OSR’s post on the PDX suburbs- Gresham is an eastern suburb of Portland that has a more blue-collar, downscale, and WWC reputation. I think it’s trended R during the last 2-3 cycles, although idk by how much relative to the other eastside suburbs or easternmost Portland proper.

[THG]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

That would explain why your OP has CO voting noticeably more D than OR, and CA potentially voting more R than WA in the next 2-3 cycles.

Re: OSR’s post on the PDX suburbs- Gresham is an eastern suburb of Portland that has a more blue-collar, downscale, and WWC reputation. I think it’s trended R during the last 2-3 cycles, although idk by how much relative to the other eastside suburbs or easternmost Portland proper.

I mean, Colorado will probably be a white liberal Mecca quite soon. But I could be very wrong about Washington, even if I do believe that California is maxed out for Democrats.

[Kamala's side hoe]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

That would explain why your OP has CO voting noticeably more D than OR, and CA potentially voting more R than WA in the next 2-3 cycles.

Re: OSR’s post on the PDX suburbs- Gresham is an eastern suburb of Portland that has a more blue-collar, downscale, and WWC reputation. I think it’s trended R during the last 2-3 cycles, although idk by how much relative to the other eastside suburbs or easternmost Portland proper.

I mean, Colorado will probably be a white liberal Mecca quite soon. But I could be very wrong about Washington, even if I do believe that California is maxed out for Democrats.

I think the long-term demographic trends that could push CA towards less overwhelming D margins of victory will also prevent WA from becoming too Titanium D. Unlike Metro PDX, there were parts of Metro Seattle that swung R between 2016 and 2020- just like in CA.

[THG]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

That would explain why your OP has CO voting noticeably more D than OR, and CA potentially voting more R than WA in the next 2-3 cycles.

Re: OSR’s post on the PDX suburbs- Gresham is an eastern suburb of Portland that has a more blue-collar, downscale, and WWC reputation. I think it’s trended R during the last 2-3 cycles, although idk by how much relative to the other eastside suburbs or easternmost Portland proper.

I mean, Colorado will probably be a white liberal Mecca quite soon. But I could be very wrong about Washington, even if I do believe that California is maxed out for Democrats.

I think the long-term demographic trends that could push CA towards less overwhelming D margins of victory will also prevent WA from becoming too Titanium D. Unlike Metro PDX, there were parts of Metro Seattle that swung R between 2016 and 2020- just like in CA.

That’s actually pretty interesting to think about. Probably the more Asian precincts, I’m guessing?

[Non Swing Voter]

giving 10 point win ranges that aren't all that far off current margins isn't really a hot take.

[Kamala's side hoe]

An area where Oregon republicans can make gains is on the Oregon coast

Really?

Explain. I have no real PNW political knowledge.

That would explain why your OP has CO voting noticeably more D than OR, and CA potentially voting more R than WA in the next 2-3 cycles.

Re: OSR’s post on the PDX suburbs- Gresham is an eastern suburb of Portland that has a more blue-collar, downscale, and WWC reputation. I think it’s trended R during the last 2-3 cycles, although idk by how much relative to the other eastside suburbs or easternmost Portland proper.

I mean, Colorado will probably be a white liberal Mecca quite soon. But I could be very wrong about Washington, even if I do believe that California is maxed out for Democrats.

I think the long-term demographic trends that could push CA towards less overwhelming D margins of victory will also prevent WA from becoming too Titanium D. Unlike Metro PDX, there were parts of Metro Seattle that swung R between 2016 and 2020- just like in CA.

That’s actually pretty interesting to think about. Probably the more Asian precincts, I’m guessing?

I don’t think there was a clear correlation between Asian percentage and swing. Precincts in not-UMC suburban areas with large Asian populations (like Kent and Renton) swung mildly R, as did certain precincts in Bellevue that have a certain ethnic Chinese or Vietnamese presence. IIRC the biggest suburban R swings (e.g. in Federal Way) weren’t in areas with a significant Asian presence, and the areas of Seattle proper with the biggest R swings contain certain housing projects and may be heavily (non-ADOS) black?

Edit: this isn't to say that there weren't any NYT precincts in Metro PDX within the urban growth boundary that swung R. For example, the Portland/Gresham precinct around SE 174th Ave between Centennial and Rockwood had a pretty substantial R swing (53-36 HRC to 53-45 Biden). It's just that I could count the Metro PDX R swing precincts on one hand, while there were larger and more continuous zones of R swings in Metro Seattle. (There were also a couple of precincts in Beaverton and Hillsboro where Trump almost matched Biden's percentage gains from Hillary- I believe those correspond to areas with concentrations of Vietnamese and/or Mexican voters?)

[Alben Barkley]

Actually doesn't seem that unreasonable.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Really? The way things are going in California & the Democrats seemingly inability to fix anything, tells me that voter's will wise up,  plus the exodus underway, make California ripe for change! Even Democrats will grasp that! As for Oregon, it too will begin a trend towards a Republicans who are socially liberal and Fiscally Conservative, as for Washington, it's a lost cause and has been voting Democrat since 1988 for godsake! No problems in Colorado so far! But when Democrats start screwing up State, which they will, then watch this space! Maybe Republicans don't have anyone to vote for! Nevada will wise up & kick Democrats out, as that party seems to mess up, allowing Republicans to come back & clean up the messes that Democrats make! Ergo Biden & his idiots are setting up a scenario for the question! Had enough?

[MATTROSE94]

Seems about right, though I think California will usually vote Democratic by around 30, whereas Oregon has the potential to become a swing state. Additionally, Nevada will probably be voting like Ohio or Iowa in 2020 by the time 2032 rolls around.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Don't be that surprised if the 2032 you wakes up the day after the election and all five of those states are blue.

[Xing]

Colorado: 17-20 point win for Democrats. Republicans might gain more in the Southern part of the state, but it's hard to find more places that they can gain, and I wouldn't be surprised if Douglas and El Paso go Democratic by then.

Washington: 22-25 point win for the Democrats. It's not really the areas with a large Latino population that are trending Republican, so much as the SW coastal counties like Grays Harbor and Pacific (as well as Cowlitz, but that county isn't coastal.) Democrats pad to their margins with increased wins in King, Snohomish, Clark, and some Eastern Washington counties like Benton, Chelan, Franklin, and Walla Walla get more competitive. Spokane probably flips in 2028 or 2032.

Utah: 15-20 point win for Republicans. Salt Lake City probably trends further left, but if there's one area in the country where Republicans probably will bounce back a bit without Trump, it's probably places like Odgen and Provo. Those two trends will offset each other, keeping Utah in about the same range, perhaps a bit to the left.

Oregon: 18-22 point win for Democrats. Portland is still growing, the quick rate of growth in Bend will also keep pulling the state further left. While the rural parts of the state might not be completely maxed out, and counties like Columbia could trend further right, that won't be enough to offset how the Portland area will keep getting bigger (even if Multnomah is close to maxed out, counties like Washington and Clackamas are not.) There is no swing state potential here unless Republicans find a way to appeal to urban left-leaning voters.

California: 27-30 point win for Democrats. I don't think Latinos in California are going to trend far right, and I wouldn't bet on Asians doing so, either. Even if there is a slight trend in counties like Imperial and Stanislaus, the Democratic trend in several coastal counties, as well as counties like El Dorado and Placer will probably offset that, keeping it in the same range.

[THG]

Colorado: 17-20 point win for Democrats. Republicans might gain more in the Southern part of the state, but it's hard to find more places that they can gain, and I wouldn't be surprised if Douglas and El Paso go Democratic by then.

Washington: 22-25 point win for the Democrats. It's not really the areas with a large Latino population that are trending Republican, so much as the SW coastal counties like Grays Harbor and Pacific (as well as Cowlitz, but that county isn't coastal.) Democrats pad to their margins with increased wins in King, Snohomish, Clark, and some Eastern Washington counties like Benton, Chelan, Franklin, and Walla Walla get more competitive. Spokane probably flips in 2028 or 2032.

Utah: 15-20 point win for Republicans. Salt Lake City probably trends further left, but if there's one area in the country where Republicans probably will bounce back a bit without Trump, it's probably places like Odgen and Provo. Those two trends will offset each other, keeping Utah in about the same range, perhaps a bit to the left.

Oregon: 18-22 point win for Democrats. Portland is still growing, the quick rate of growth in Bend will also keep pulling the state further left. While the rural parts of the state might not be completely maxed out, and counties like Columbia could trend further right, that won't be enough to offset how the Portland area will keep getting bigger (even if Multnomah is close to maxed out, counties like Washington and Clackamas are not.) There is no swing state potential here unless Republicans find a way to appeal to urban left-leaning voters.

California: 27-30 point win for Democrats. I don't think Latinos in California are going to trend far right, and I wouldn't bet on Asians doing so, either. Even if there is a slight trend in counties like Imperial and Stanislaus, the Democratic trend in several coastal counties, as well as counties like El Dorado and Placer will probably offset that, keeping it in the same range.

Agreed with most generally even if I genuinely think that California will be more like a 20-23 point win for Democrats- if I were to be more specific- this is based on inland and Central Valley California trends favoring Republicans, and I think that LA and the Bay are basically maxed out for Dems. Though you are right that the Sacramento suburbs + Orange and San Diego will likely shift further left in the future, and I agree entirely that it’s unlikely that Hispanics or Asians shift crazily to the right, I still believe they overall trend Republican to a lesser degree, as they did in the recall election (though exit polls are still awful, there’s no way Trump only won 25% of Hispanics but recall got 42%, lol).

I was also really shocked at how far Colorado swung left in 2020, and I’m not sure if anyone saw it coming. It would not shock me if it swung to being a D+20 state in 3 or 4 election cycles. And Southern Colorado has an incredibly low population. So I think Colorado is atleast a 20 point win for Democrats by the next decade. I frankly wouldn’t be surprised if all of Silicon Valley moves there.