Why did Jennifer Wexton heavily underperform Biden?

[Woody]

Biden won the 10th by almost 20 points, yet Wexton only won by 13 against Aliscia Andrews. I'd imagine if Rob Jones was the R nominee she would have even underperformed more.

[Meatball Ron]

This has been repeated many times - perhaps even in your own threads - but will say it once more for your benefit: partisan trends generally start at the top of the ballot then trickle downward. This is why Dems have been winning places like VA-10, CO-06, MN-03 for 2-3 presidential cycles now, but only captured their House seats in 2018. Also the same reason why you still see plenty of Republicans in local office in places like Loudon County even though they're solidly Dem at the federal level.

[Tartarus Sauce]

This has been repeated many times - perhaps even in your own threads - but will say it once more for your benefit: partisan trends generally start at the top of the ballot then trickle downward. This is why Dems have been winning places like VA-10, CO-06, MN-03 for 2-3 presidential cycles now, but only captured their House seats in 2018. Also the same reason why you still see plenty of Republicans in local office in places like Loudon County even though they're solidly Dem at the federal level.

Precisely, and you can see that trickle downward in the 2020 House election SirWoodbury seems so impressed by the Republican performance in.

Here's the rounded R House overperformance in VA-10 during the past three presidential elections:

2012: R+19 over Romney
2016: R+16 over Trump
2020: R+6 over Trump

The Republican House overperformance has already dropped around 13 points from where it was in 2012.