FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS: The Micropolitan and Exurban areas of Georgia

[RogerRogers]

Some interesting possibilities of flips in Georgia, despite its growth as a blue state could include:

Flip Blue:
Forsyth County
Fayette County
Paulding County
Cherokee County
Fayette County
Coweta County
Troup County
Carroll County
Lowndes County
Spalding County

Flip Red:
Muscogee County
Bibb County
Richmond County
Dougherty County
Sumter County
Baldwin County

Thoughts?

[Roll Roons]

No chance that Bibb, Dougherty, Muscogee or Richmond go red anytime soon. In all four of those counties, Biden had the best performance since Carter (and FDR in the latter!)

But it's very possible that Fayette flips in 2024.

[RogerRogers]

Watching Forsyth and Paulding closely, they are roughly where Douglas County was in 2004.

[If my soul was made of stone]

With the exception of Baldwin and Sumter, all of the "flip red" counties there would require massive demographic change to become competitive. Eastern Black Belt counties like Jefferson and Washington (the latter voted for Kemp in 2018) could flip based on demographic change and turnout dynamics, like Dooly and Peach did in 2016.

[Cassandra]

I'm just gonna say, Forsyth flipping would be wild. I hope it happens, just for the symbolism of the thing.

[Devils30]

Given the trends in Paulding, Forsyth and Fayette, the entire state is really bleak for the GOP in another decade. You wonder if eventually when the Dems run the state in the 2030s that they draw an 11-4 type congressional map.

[patzer]

Given the trends in Paulding, Forsyth and Fayette, the entire state is really bleak for the GOP in another decade. You wonder if eventually when the Dems run the state in the 2030s that they draw an 11-4 type congressional map.

It's already easy enough to draw an 11-3 map for the Dems even now, so that wouldn't surprise me at all.