Biggest predictor of 2020 trends- 2020 Dem primary turnout increase (or decline)

[Devils30]

I haven't seen this brought up but it sure looks like the primary turnout or decline relative to 2016 was a pretty solid predictor of places Biden or Trump surged. The pandemic must be taken into account but many trends were baked in long before COVID.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2020&off=0&elect=1&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2016&off=0&elect=1&f=0


AZ: Massive increase and especially in Maricopa, foreshadowed Biden's win. Vote was by mail and most arrived pre-COVID.

TX: Solid increase, largest in the usual suspects of Denton, Tarrant, Collin, Willamson, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Harris, Dallas.

GA: This increase from 2020 that occurred months AFTER Biden has locked up the nomination really stands out. Massive increase in Forsyth, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry as expected.

NC: Modest increase in urban areas but Dem decline in rural parts such as Robeson. Biden's rural problems cost him the state narrowly in the end.

FL: Dem numbers DECLINED in Dade from 2016 to 2020, in retrospect it was a massive red flag and turnout in the rest of FL was pretty modest. Non Miami-Florida basically voted the same in 2020 as 2016.

OH: Massive decline, some was COVID related but you can't ignore that it was much more. Numbers really cratered along the OH/PA, OH/WV line but still went up in Delaware.

MI: Good across the board increase, especially in Oakland, Kent, Ottawa. Turnout down in Detroit from 2016- likely reflects population decline.

WI: Overall state decline from 2016-20 but increase in the WOW counties. Biden improvement there proved decisive in November. Affected by COVID and probably would have been modest increase if not for it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I think there is a very strong correlation, especially since it prolly corresponds with the on the ground energy. Funny how many people wrote a lot of these turnout increases/decreased off as anything (including myself), but just about everywhere you look it very closely corresponds with trends.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Primary turnout in South Texas still increased despite the obvious (and relative Dem weakness in 2018), although admittedly many attribute the massive Republican gains there mainly to factors that emerged after the primaries. I hadn't noticed by now that Zapata County actually voted for Biden in the primary, which weakens the narrative that Sanders wouldn't have faced the regional bleeding (I think he could've done a fair bit better, sure, but the signs were already there from 2004, 2016, and 2018 that the region could swing R).

[bagelman]

Primary turnout in South Texas still increased despite the obvious (and relative Dem weakness in 2018), although admittedly many attribute the massive Republican gains there mainly to factors that emerged after the primaries. I hadn't noticed by now that Zapata County actually voted for Biden in the primary, which weakens the narrative that Sanders wouldn't have faced the regional bleeding (I think he could've done a fair bit better, sure, but the signs were already there from 2004, 2016, and 2018 that the region could swing R).

Biden didn't lose voters in the RGV, Trump gained voters. That's an important factor to consider.

[Non Swing Voter]

what about Colorado?  If there was one state where Biden's margin was surprisingly large to me it was Colorado.  Did not expect it to vote several points to the left of Virginia.

[Devils30]

what about Colorado?  If there was one state where Biden's margin was surprisingly large to me it was Colorado.  Did not expect it to vote several points to the left of Virginia.

Colorado was a caucus in 2016 so we can’t make an apples to apples comparison unfortunately.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Very interesting. I don't know if it's a correlation we can rely on for the future, but it is still quite intriguing.