How does Rick Scott's race in 2024 go?

[Tekken_Guy]

How will Rick Scott's FL-SEN race in 2024 turn out?

[Calthrina950]

He will win, but probably by less than the Republican presidential nominee. Let's say DeSantis is the nominee, and he wins Florida by 5%. Scott would probably win by 2-3% in such a scenario.

[Mr. Smith]

Depends on how well Biden/Harris does.

[SnowLabrador]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

[Young Conservative]

Not a Rubio win, but a pretty solid win. the GOP presidential nominee (likely Desantis) is going to carry the state pretty easily.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I think the presidential ticket would help him to cross the line by 2-3 points

[THG]

Lean-ish Republican, but honestly closer to likely.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Scott is more likely to be on the ballot in some form at the top of ticket (either as President or Vice President) than Rubio or DeSantis, as he'll be appealing to pretty much any non-Trump nominee (more so than Rubio-Rubio's being non-White might actively turn off the base).

I think the most likely scenario (assuming Trump doesn't run for President in 2024 himself) is a Mike Pompeo/Rick Scott ticket.

[President Johnson]

I expect him to win by 3-4 points regardless of what happens at the presidential level. Will probably outperform the Republican nominee unless it's DeSantis.

[Meatball Ron]

I think he'll trail the GOP presidential nominee by a couple points. If Biden/Harris lose Florida by more than 2ish, I'm pretty sure he gets reelected. Any closer and he could have a real race on his hands.

Obviously if DeSantis the GOP nominee, that helps Scott quite a bit - seems extremely unlikely that he'd lose (or even win by just 1-2 points) in that scenario.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

[Meatball Ron]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I agree with this - and also, Trump won the state by 3; these folks are talking about it like he won by 7.

The better data point in favor of "Florida is not a tossup anymore" would be GOP winning the Senate and Governor's race in a D+8 environment. But Nelson barely campaigned, and I guess that could've had downstream impacts for the Governor's race. Listen I'd certainly rather be a Florida Republican than a Florida Dem but I don't think it should be written off the way Ohio and Iowa probably should be. There's more nuance and complexity to Florida.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I agree with this - and also, Trump won the state by 3; these folks are talking about it like he won by 7.

The better data point in favor of "Florida is not a tossup anymore" would be GOP winning the Senate and Governor's race in a D+8 environment. But Nelson barely campaigned, and I guess that could've had downstream impacts for the Governor's race. Listen I'd certainly rather be a Florida Republican than a Florida Dem but I don't think it should be written off the way Ohio and Iowa probably should be. There's more nuance and complexity to Florida.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but I'm not saying Trump did badly in FL - he won by just 3.3, yes, but he lost nationally by 4.5, making FL a solid 8 points more conservative than the nation in 2020. My argument is that this could be an isolated instance of GOP overperformance in FL (citing congressional results in FL-26 and FL-27 is bogus) - we should see if this pattern repeats in 2022 before writing off Florida (because while the GOP did do well in FL in 2018, that could have something to do with the fact that Florida generally supports the GOP in statewide races like governor). Presidentially speaking, and likely even down the ballot, FL is a tossup or maybe tilt R, but definitely not lean or likely R like people here are saying is the case.

[Meatball Ron]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I agree with this - and also, Trump won the state by 3; these folks are talking about it like he won by 7.

The better data point in favor of "Florida is not a tossup anymore" would be GOP winning the Senate and Governor's race in a D+8 environment. But Nelson barely campaigned, and I guess that could've had downstream impacts for the Governor's race. Listen I'd certainly rather be a Florida Republican than a Florida Dem but I don't think it should be written off the way Ohio and Iowa probably should be. There's more nuance and complexity to Florida.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but I'm not saying Trump did badly in FL - he won by just 3.3, yes, but he lost nationally by 4.5, making FL a solid 8 points more conservative than the nation in 2020. My argument is that this could be an isolated instance of GOP overperformance in FL (citing congressional results in FL-26 and FL-27 is bogus) - we should see if this pattern repeats in 2022 before writing off Florida (because while the GOP did do well in FL in 2018, that could have something to do with the fact that Florida generally supports the GOP in statewide races like governor). Presidentially speaking, and likely even down the ballot, FL is a tossup or maybe tilt R, but definitely not lean or likely R like people here are saying is the case.

Yes - I articulated it poorly, but I'm fully in agreement with you - and I know you aren't saying Trump did poorly in FL, and that it's not as simple as "he only won by 3." I'm just saying, it's not like these GOP victories in the state have been super decisive, and that Dems can still compete there.

The real problem for the FL Dems, IMO, would be the incompetence of the party - weak organizing apparatus, and a consistent failure to run compelling candidates (Crist? give me a break). I think Demings is a strong candidate but FL Dems should really be running Hispanic candidates.

Demographics (recent Dem underperformance w/ Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban and Venezuelan + the auto-replenishing supply of conservative retirees) are also a problem, to be clear, but I think the party incompetence and candidate quality are bigger problems. The demographic issue can at least be somewhat neutralized by further improvements in white/educated suburbs and influx of young transplants to the Miami area.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It Leans R at the moment given the way DeSantis is blowing away Ds 61/39%

[Schiff for Senate]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I agree with this - and also, Trump won the state by 3; these folks are talking about it like he won by 7.

The better data point in favor of "Florida is not a tossup anymore" would be GOP winning the Senate and Governor's race in a D+8 environment. But Nelson barely campaigned, and I guess that could've had downstream impacts for the Governor's race. Listen I'd certainly rather be a Florida Republican than a Florida Dem but I don't think it should be written off the way Ohio and Iowa probably should be. There's more nuance and complexity to Florida.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but I'm not saying Trump did badly in FL - he won by just 3.3, yes, but he lost nationally by 4.5, making FL a solid 8 points more conservative than the nation in 2020. My argument is that this could be an isolated instance of GOP overperformance in FL (citing congressional results in FL-26 and FL-27 is bogus) - we should see if this pattern repeats in 2022 before writing off Florida (because while the GOP did do well in FL in 2018, that could have something to do with the fact that Florida generally supports the GOP in statewide races like governor). Presidentially speaking, and likely even down the ballot, FL is a tossup or maybe tilt R, but definitely not lean or likely R like people here are saying is the case.

Yes - I articulated it poorly, but I'm fully in agreement with you - and I know you aren't saying Trump did poorly in FL, and that it's not as simple as "he only won by 3." I'm just saying, it's not like these GOP victories in the state have been super decisive, and that Dems can still compete there.

The real problem for the FL Dems, IMO, would be the incompetence of the party - weak organizing apparatus, and a consistent failure to run compelling candidates (Crist? give me a break). I think Demings is a strong candidate but FL Dems should really be running Hispanic candidates.

Demographics (recent Dem underperformance w/ Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban and Venezuelan + the auto-replenishing supply of conservative retirees) are also a problem, to be clear, but I think the party incompetence and candidate quality are bigger problems. The demographic issue can at least be somewhat neutralized by further improvements in white/educated suburbs and influx of young transplants to the Miami area.

You're right, but I've checked, and there aren't any Hispanic Democrats from Florida in the House, and I don't think there are any in the Florida State Senate, either. The alternative is running a candidate from Miami or the Miami metropolitan area, like Rep. Fredrica Wilson.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's don't need FL, and DeSantis is probably gonna be nominated since Trump Org is going thru indictments

[Meatball Ron]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I agree with this - and also, Trump won the state by 3; these folks are talking about it like he won by 7.

The better data point in favor of "Florida is not a tossup anymore" would be GOP winning the Senate and Governor's race in a D+8 environment. But Nelson barely campaigned, and I guess that could've had downstream impacts for the Governor's race. Listen I'd certainly rather be a Florida Republican than a Florida Dem but I don't think it should be written off the way Ohio and Iowa probably should be. There's more nuance and complexity to Florida.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but I'm not saying Trump did badly in FL - he won by just 3.3, yes, but he lost nationally by 4.5, making FL a solid 8 points more conservative than the nation in 2020. My argument is that this could be an isolated instance of GOP overperformance in FL (citing congressional results in FL-26 and FL-27 is bogus) - we should see if this pattern repeats in 2022 before writing off Florida (because while the GOP did do well in FL in 2018, that could have something to do with the fact that Florida generally supports the GOP in statewide races like governor). Presidentially speaking, and likely even down the ballot, FL is a tossup or maybe tilt R, but definitely not lean or likely R like people here are saying is the case.

Yes - I articulated it poorly, but I'm fully in agreement with you - and I know you aren't saying Trump did poorly in FL, and that it's not as simple as "he only won by 3." I'm just saying, it's not like these GOP victories in the state have been super decisive, and that Dems can still compete there.

The real problem for the FL Dems, IMO, would be the incompetence of the party - weak organizing apparatus, and a consistent failure to run compelling candidates (Crist? give me a break). I think Demings is a strong candidate but FL Dems should really be running Hispanic candidates.

Demographics (recent Dem underperformance w/ Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban and Venezuelan + the auto-replenishing supply of conservative retirees) are also a problem, to be clear, but I think the party incompetence and candidate quality are bigger problems. The demographic issue can at least be somewhat neutralized by further improvements in white/educated suburbs and influx of young transplants to the Miami area.

You're right, but I've checked, and there aren't any Hispanic Democrats from Florida in the House, and I don't think there are any in the Florida State Senate, either. The alternative is running a candidate from Miami or the Miami metropolitan area, like Rep. Fredrica Wilson.

There's Darren Soto in the US House and Annette Tadeo in the State Senate, but more generally, you're right, and that's a huge problem in and of itself. FL Dems need to be recruiting, mentoring, and preparing young Hispanic Dems in the state, who would run for lower offices like Mayor and state legislature, to eventually run for higher offices like Congress and Governor. I think this is a long game, not some short-term fix for the next couple election cycles.

[THG]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I don’t think Florida is yet a titanium R state like some people on here seem to, but it is clearly shifting away from the Democrats. Scott and DeSantis emerging victorious in a D+9 year in 2018 and it voting 8 points to the right of the nation in 2020 prove to me that it was no “anomaly”.

I think Florida right now is where Ohio and Iowa/or the reverse of where Colorado and Virginia were in 2012-2016. A purple state rapidly shifting to being a solidly partisan one.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I don’t think Florida is yet a titanium R state like some people on here seem to, but it is clearly shifting away from the Democrats. Scott and DeSantis emerging victorious in a D+9 year in 2018 and it voting 8 points to the right of the nation in 2020 prove to me that it was no “anomaly”.

I think Florida right now is where Ohio and Iowa/or the reverse of where Colorado and Virginia were in 2012-2014. A purple state rapidly shifting to being a solidly partisan one.

How was Iowa in the process of becoming the lean R state it is today in 2012 and 2014??

Iowa was still a swing state in 2012 - it voted for Obama by nearly 6% in 2012, and while some of that is because Obama was from neighbouring Illinois, it certainly shows that Iowa wasn't in the process of becoming a red state. That process began with Trump.

In the 2014 Senate election, it voted for Ernst by 8.3%, which seems like a lot - until you remember that 2014 was a red wave year where the nation voted Republican by nearly the same margin as Iowa (7.5% nationally, 8.3% in Iowa - a difference of less than 1%).

Yes, Terry Branstad won by over 20% in the gubernatorial election - but in a GOP wave year where he was a popular incumbent (similar to Branstad, in 2008 popular long-time Senator Tom Harkin won reelection by a lot - 26.4%, bigger than Branstad's own margin in 2014). The point is, he had the incumbency advantage in a wave year for his party.

And lastly, in 2012, Iowa had 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans in the House. Even following the 2014 wave year where the GOP ended up with 247 House seats, the Iowa Democrats still had one House member (David Loebsack). 

So, no - Iowa was not in the process of becoming red until 2016-2020, when Trump entered the political scene. In reality, it was a swing state.

[THG]

I think he wins by mid-to-high single digits, so maybe 7 points. The days of Florida being the Ultimate Swing State are over.

It confuses me why everyone's so quick now to write off Florida as a red state. It was a swing state for two decades, and still largely is - 2020 might just be anomaly. Yes, Southeast Florida shifted red, but that was just for one race (the congressional races for FL-26 and FL-27 don't count - both were represented by the GOP before flipping blue in the 2018 blue wave, and also, Shalala in FL-27 was a weak candidate - she couldn't even speak Spanish in this majority-Hispanic district; the districts are still congressionally competitive), and it may go back to being bluer in 2022. There's really no reason to call FL a red or even likely red state until we can see if Trump's performance was an isolated anomaly or part of a larger pattern of decaying Democratic support.

I don’t think Florida is yet a titanium R state like some people on here seem to, but it is clearly shifting away from the Democrats. Scott and DeSantis emerging victorious in a D+9 year in 2018 and it voting 8 points to the right of the nation in 2020 prove to me that it was no “anomaly”.

I think Florida right now is where Ohio and Iowa/or the reverse of where Colorado and Virginia were in 2012-2014. A purple state rapidly shifting to being a solidly partisan one.

How was Iowa in the process of becoming the lean R state it is today in 2012 and 2014??

Iowa was still a swing state in 2012 - it voted for Obama by nearly 6% in 2012, and while some of that is because Obama was from neighbouring Illinois, it certainly shows that Iowa wasn't in the process of becoming a red state. That process began with Trump.

In the 2014 Senate election, it voted for Ernst by 8.3%, which seems like a lot - until you remember that 2014 was a red wave year where the nation voted Republican by nearly the same margin as Iowa (7.5% nationally, 8.3% in Iowa - a difference of less than 1%).

Yes, Terry Branstad won by over 20% in the gubernatorial election - but in a GOP wave year where he was a popular incumbent (similar to Branstad, in 2008 popular long-time Senator Tom Harkin won reelection by a lot - 26.4%, bigger than Branstad's own margin in 2014). The point is, he had the incumbency advantage in a wave year for his party.

And lastly, in 2012, Iowa had 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans in the House. Even following the 2014 wave year where the GOP ended up with 247 House seats, the Iowa Democrats still had one House member (David Loebsack).  

So, no - Iowa was not in the process of becoming red until 2016-2020, when Trump entered the political scene. In reality, it was a swing state.

Did you refer to the Iowa of today as a lean R state? Iowa is a safe Red state that may be likely on a bad day.

And sure, you're technically right that Trump helped a ton there, though the signs that it was trending right in comparison to even 2012 were showing. Remember, Obama won it by like 5 or 6 in '12.

However, my point still stands in comparing it to Ohio or a reverse of CO/VA. I don't think Florida is auto-destined to become a R+10 state or something, but it is showing clear signs of trending to the right.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

If I had to guess, I can most easily see him winning by a margin similar to Trump's 2020 margin, i.e. slightly larger than Scott's last three races but still competitive and relatively close in the end.