Why were there so many Duckworth 2016/Curran 2020 voters in Downstate Illinois

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Voting to throw out 2 incumbents back to back in presidential years from different parties as the national environment move in the other direction.

And the shift was really big in some places. Curran was the 1st Republican to win Alexander County in a Senate race since 1972, and he put up a big margin in several Duckworth Counties like Calhoun, Pulaski, and Gallatin.

[Jamison5]

Voting to throw out 2 incumbents back to back in presidential years from different parties as the national environment move in the other direction.

And the shift was really big in some places. Curran was the 1st Republican to win Alexander County in a Senate race since 1972, and he put up a big margin in several Duckworth Counties like Calhoun, Pulaski, and Gallatin.

I think it is because trends at the congressional level tend to lag behind trends at the presidential level. Really these are a lot of Obama-Trump-Duckworth-Trump-Curran voters. On the other side of this, my idea about the lag in trends would also explain Kirk doing so much better than Trump in Lake and DuPage while Curran did not.

[PAK Man]

I wonder if it had to do with the candidates themselves. Duckworth has a very inspiring personal story - veteran who lost her legs in combat and then decided to serve her country another way by going into politics (regardless of political affiliation, I feel like most people will support veterans who were injured in combat). On the other hand, Durban has been in Washington since the '80s (first as a congressman, then as a senator since 1997) and perhaps people just saw that and thought, "He's been in office for too long. I don't care who his opponent is, I'm voting for them." I remain convinced that a lot of people have this line of thinking and that it's not a simple "vote for this party over this party" mentality. Candidate quality still matters, despite what the conventional wisdom says.

[freepcrusher]

I wonder if it had to do with the candidates themselves. Duckworth has a very inspiring personal story - veteran who lost her legs in combat and then decided to serve her country another way by going into politics (regardless of political affiliation, I feel like most people will support veterans who were injured in combat). On the other hand, Durban has been in Washington since the '80s (first as a congressman, then as a senator since 1997) and perhaps people just saw that and thought, "He's been in office for too long. I don't care who his opponent is, I'm voting for them." I remain convinced that a lot of people have this line of thinking and that it's not a simple "vote for this party over this party" mentality. Candidate quality still matters, despite what the conventional wisdom says.

yes but Durbin is from downstate and represented a us house seat there. It makes me wonder what happens if he stays put. Does his district get merged with Costello in 2002?

[MT Treasurer]

It wasn’t so much that Duckworth 'overperformed' in Downstate IL but that Kirk was probably the worst possible candidate for that region who also alienated a large part of his own base while in office and on the campaign trail (in a vain attempt to get sufficient Democratic crossover support in Chicagoland). Intensifying trends/erosion of down-ballot D strength & Durbin's insider image/role in leadership certainly contributed to it, but 2016 had more to do with unusual R weakness than D candidate quality.

[Roll Roons]

Don't underestimate the impact of the stroke on Kirk's campaign abilities. He really wasn't the same after it. I've said it before and I'll say it again. He should have retired and let Adam Kinzinger or Bob Dold take his place.

[Xing]

Despite no states voting differently at the presidential/senate level, there was actually a fair amount of split-ticketing in 2016. Just look at the number of Clinton/Johnson voters in WOW, and the many Trump/Feingold voters in Driftless. The trends we saw at the presidential level in 2016 didn't come into play as much in downballot races until 2018-2020. I fully expect Duckworth to better in Chicagoland in 2022, even if she wins by less, and several downstate counties will easily flip even if she wins by a similar margin.

[Calthrina950]

Despite no states voting differently at the presidential/senate level, there was actually a fair amount of split-ticketing in 2016. Just look at the number of Clinton/Johnson voters in WOW, and the many Trump/Feingold voters in Driftless. The trends we saw at the presidential level in 2016 didn't come into play as much in downballot races until 2018-2020. I fully expect Duckworth to better in Chicagoland in 2022, even if she wins by less, and several downstate counties will easily flip even if she wins by a similar margin.

Gallatin County will probably shift against Duckworth like Elliott County did against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Amy McGrath in 2020 (compared to Allison Lundergan-Grimes in 2014). Duckworth won it by a 2% plurality last time. I wouldn't be surprised if she lost it by 25-30% or more next year. Durbin lost it by 32% in 2020 after having carried it by 4% in 2014.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Because Southern Illinois reflexively hates incumbent governors. It’s almost a part of the culture. We hated Quinn, then we hated Rauner, and now hate Pritzker. We’ll hate the next GOP gov too.

Blago though was relatively popular down here until he was arrested, go figure.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Because trends are real!

[DaleCooper]

Voting to throw out 2 incumbents back to back in presidential years from different parties as the national environment move in the other direction.

And the shift was really big in some places. Curran was the 1st Republican to win Alexander County in a Senate race since 1972, and he put up a big margin in several Duckworth Counties like Calhoun, Pulaski, and Gallatin.

I think it is because trends at the congressional level tend to lag behind trends at the presidential level. Really these are a lot of Obama-Trump-Duckworth-Trump-Curran voters. On the other side of this, my idea about the lag in trends would also explain Kirk doing so much better than Trump in Lake and DuPage while Curran did not.

I think this is true. Your state's results in 2016 are equally interesting, with legions of Trump-Schumer voters in Upstate New York. His map definitely won't look like that next year and neither will Gillibrand's in 2024.

[Calthrina950]

Voting to throw out 2 incumbents back to back in presidential years from different parties as the national environment move in the other direction.

And the shift was really big in some places. Curran was the 1st Republican to win Alexander County in a Senate race since 1972, and he put up a big margin in several Duckworth Counties like Calhoun, Pulaski, and Gallatin.

I think it is because trends at the congressional level tend to lag behind trends at the presidential level. Really these are a lot of Obama-Trump-Duckworth-Trump-Curran voters. On the other side of this, my idea about the lag in trends would also explain Kirk doing so much better than Trump in Lake and DuPage while Curran did not.

I think this is true. Your state's results in 2016 are equally interesting, with legions of Trump-Schumer voters in Upstate New York. His map definitely won't look like that next year and neither will Gillibrand's in 2024.

I've commented on this before. In fact, we've already seen the Democratic collapse in Upstate New York with Gillibrand. Just compare her 2012 map, when she got 72% of the vote:

to her 2018 map, when she got 67% of the vote:

Gillibrand lost 25 counties which she had carried in 2012, and did worse in most of the remaining counties which she held, except for in New York City (where she did about as well as in 2012), Westchester County (the same), and Tompkins County (where she actually improved over 2012). I wouldn't be surprised if Schumer's map next year were to look like Gillibrand's. It's been very saddening to see Democratic support collapse to the extent it has in rural and working-class areas. Maps have become far less interesting to look at.

[freepcrusher]

Voting to throw out 2 incumbents back to back in presidential years from different parties as the national environment move in the other direction.

And the shift was really big in some places. Curran was the 1st Republican to win Alexander County in a Senate race since 1972, and he put up a big margin in several Duckworth Counties like Calhoun, Pulaski, and Gallatin.

I think it is because trends at the congressional level tend to lag behind trends at the presidential level. Really these are a lot of Obama-Trump-Duckworth-Trump-Curran voters. On the other side of this, my idea about the lag in trends would also explain Kirk doing so much better than Trump in Lake and DuPage while Curran did not.

I think this is true. Your state's results in 2016 are equally interesting, with legions of Trump-Schumer voters in Upstate New York. His map definitely won't look like that next year and neither will Gillibrand's in 2024.

I've commented on this before. In fact, we've already seen the Democratic collapse in Upstate New York with Gillibrand. Just compare her 2012 map, when she got 72% of the vote:

to her 2018 map, when she got 67% of the vote:

Gillibrand lost 25 counties which she had carried in 2012, and did worse in most of the remaining counties which she held, except for in New York City (where she did about as well as in 2012), Westchester County (the same), and Tompkins County (where she actually improved over 2012). I wouldn't be surprised if Schumer's map next year were to look like Gillibrand's. It's been very saddening to see Democratic support collapse to the extent it has in rural and working-class areas. Maps have become far less interesting to look at.

Schumer is a more tenured and stronger incumbent. He got 70.6% in 2016 compared to Gilly who did four points worse in 2018 (a better environment)

[Calthrina950]

Voting to throw out 2 incumbents back to back in presidential years from different parties as the national environment move in the other direction.

And the shift was really big in some places. Curran was the 1st Republican to win Alexander County in a Senate race since 1972, and he put up a big margin in several Duckworth Counties like Calhoun, Pulaski, and Gallatin.

I think it is because trends at the congressional level tend to lag behind trends at the presidential level. Really these are a lot of Obama-Trump-Duckworth-Trump-Curran voters. On the other side of this, my idea about the lag in trends would also explain Kirk doing so much better than Trump in Lake and DuPage while Curran did not.

I think this is true. Your state's results in 2016 are equally interesting, with legions of Trump-Schumer voters in Upstate New York. His map definitely won't look like that next year and neither will Gillibrand's in 2024.

I've commented on this before. In fact, we've already seen the Democratic collapse in Upstate New York with Gillibrand. Just compare her 2012 map, when she got 72% of the vote:

to her 2018 map, when she got 67% of the vote:

Gillibrand lost 25 counties which she had carried in 2012, and did worse in most of the remaining counties which she held, except for in New York City (where she did about as well as in 2012), Westchester County (the same), and Tompkins County (where she actually improved over 2012). I wouldn't be surprised if Schumer's map next year were to look like Gillibrand's. It's been very saddening to see Democratic support collapse to the extent it has in rural and working-class areas. Maps have become far less interesting to look at.

Schumer is a more tenured and stronger incumbent. He got 70.6% in 2016 compared to Gilly who did four points worse in 2018 (a better environment)

Gillibrand actually got a higher percentage than Schumer has in any of his elections back in 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if Schumer does slightly better than her next year, but I doubt he gets over 70% again, like he did in 2004 and 2016.