Rasmussen: Fogarty (D) now leads Carcieri (R)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Rhode Island Governor by Rasmussen on 2006-09-05

Summary: D: 46%, R: 41%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is wrong I believe the Fleming poll that had Carcieri up by 4 pts. RI likes to balance the Dem senate with a republican governor.

[TheresNoMoney]

This poll is wrong

It's impossible for you to know that (that goes for all other polls as well).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook has this race leaning republican, and Carcieri is very popular in the state. The Dems have a better chance in MN.

[sethm0]

 I think Fogarty has a better than 50/50 shot. Carcieri's campaign is falling on its face and Fogarty's campaign has been flawless so far. Fogarty has great ads, has been outraising Carcieri and the same campaign manager that Melissa Bean had when she pulled off her upset last year. I wouldn't have guessed it a few months ago, but I think Fogarty's chances of winning are as good as Whitehouse's.

[Smash255]

Cook has this race leaning republican, and Carcieri is very popular in the state. The Dems have a better chance in MN.

No he isn't, his approvals aren't horrid or anything, but he isn't very popular bby any means.  he has average approval ratings. The state is VERY Democratic, and he is in quite a bit of trouble and dead in the water if Laffey wins the Primary or Senate.  whitehouse's blowout puts Fogarty over the top (and Fogarty  probably wins with Chafee on the GOP Senate ticket)

[Joel the Attention Whore]

If Laffey wins the Republican nomination for Senate, it will equal a solid Whitehouse victory.  A solid Whitehouse victory would encourage Democrats to come out and they would mostly vote party-line.  We'll be able to predict this race more accurately after the Senate primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Fleming poll has Carcieri up by 4 it isn't guarenteed that Fogarty wins.

[Smash255]

The Fleming poll has Carcieri up by 4 it isn't guarenteed that Fogarty wins.

I have it rated as a tossup (that is assuming Chafee wisn the primary)  Rhode Island is a staunchly Democratic state.  the type of state doesn't always correlate to the Govenor (their is less correlation with Gov races and party than Senate or house seats).  However, in a state as Democratic as this carceri really needs to be very well liked (which he isn't).  Its a bit harder with someone with average ratings to overcome a state whose party is so staunchly the other party.  Not saying it can't happen, but generally that person needs to appeal  across party line (he has some Dem support, but not enough) and/ or would need to benefit from a weak opponent, something Fogarty isn't. 

Carceri is a Republican Govenor with average ratings, in a very Dem state going against a strong Dem opponent, in a strong Dem year.  That is quite a lot to be running up against.  If Laffey wins the Senate primary, their will be quite a few probable Chafee general election voters (Dems and Indies) that will vote Whitehouse (Laffey will get demolished) and many will vote straight Dem ticket.  Chafee wins the Primary carceri still has a decent chance, though i would say fogarty is favored.  Laffey wins the Primary the blowout in the Sneate race sinks carceri.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But RI has a history of reelecting republican Governors Almond was elected twice and he left office because of term limits, not by the voters.  And you have to account for incumbancy. I give Fogarty a shot, but I am not going to predict he will win unless all the polls agree, just because of the fact Almond won 2 terms. I will predict that Carcieri wins if Laffey wins, but I am not so sure if Chafee wins. And Carcieri approval ratings are around 50%, they are at 49%, so it is still right at that vulnerabiliy level. I will wait until all the polls agree. So, far RI College, Brown College and Fleming have Carcieri winning, and only Rasmussen has Fogarty winning. Most of the polls agree that Whitehouse is ahead of Chafee.

[Smash255]

But RI has a history of reelecting republican Governors Almond was elected twice and he left office because of term limits, not by the voters.  And you have to account for incumbancy. I give Fogarty a shot, but I am not going to predict he will win unless all the polls agree, just because of the fact Almond won 2 terms. I will predict that Carcieri wins if Laffey wins, but I am not so sure if Chafee wins. And Carcieri approval ratings are around 50%, they are at 49%, so it is still right at that vulnerabiliy level. I will wait until all the polls agree. So, far RI College, Brown College and Fleming have Carcieri winning, and only Rasmussen has Fogarty winning. Most of the polls agree that Whitehouse is ahead of Chafee.

RI &  brown College polls are both several months old.  We have two recent polls (what is Fleming by the way???) showing two different results  Almond's #'s were actually a bit better than Carceri's currently are ( I belive Alond was about 10 points higher).  Also he didn't face as tough as a challenger, he didn't run in a year as Democratic as this one either.  RI has elected GOp govenors in the past, but when they have done that their has never been the strong anti GOp climate as there is now, and thats even more so in RI which is one of the most Democratic States in the country.  With Chafee oon the Senate Ballot iws going to be a real tight race, but carceri just has too much to overcome.  With Laffey on the ballot, still fairly close, but that meas even mroe for Carceri too overcome.  He just isn't strong enough to overcome all the obstacles he has to overcome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's your opinion that Carcieri isn't going to win. Cook doesn't have this race as tossup and I wouldn't hold my breath with a Fogarty victory and Carcieri poll numbers are around 50% approval ratings. Again when all the polls agree that Fogarty is ahead then I will change it. So, far Ramsussen poll. And the Fleming poll isn't old it just came out resently. And the Dems having a year like this is overstated the poll numbers of the GOP are rising now. People are paying attention to the races now, and the polls are going to get tighter.  RI has a history of electing republicans and it might this year. That's why it is a tossup not a republican lean. And Cook doesn't have it competetive yet.  Again I said that if Chafee wins the race is a tossup, if Laffey wins it will be a Dem lean. Too much to overcome and the polls are even right now. If he was being blown out I would see him having too much to overcome. But both polls are showing close races. All I am saying is that Fogarty could win but it isn't a sure bet that he will win because of the history of the state to be electing Republican governors just like MA.

[Smash255]

That's your opinion that Carcieri isn't going to win. Cook doesn't have this race as tossup and I wouldn't hold my breath with a Fogarty victory and Carcieri poll numbers are around 50% approval ratings. Again when all the polls agree that Fogarty is ahead then I will change it. So, far Ramsussen poll. And the Fleming poll isn't old it just came out resently. And the Dems having a year like this is overstated the poll numbers of the GOP are rising now. People are paying attention to the races now, and the polls are going to get tighter.  RI has a history of electing republicans and it might this year. That's why it is a tossup not a republican lean. And Cook doesn't have it competetive yet.  Again I said that if Chafee wins the race is a tossup, if Laffey wins it will be a Dem lean. Too much to overcome and the polls are even right now. If he was being blown out I would see him having too much to overcome. But both polls are showing close races. All I am saying is that Fogarty could win but it isn't a sure bet that he will win because of the history of the state to be electing Republican governors just like MA.

You really do contradict yourself like a mutha

Anyway what I said was both RI College & Brown Collegee were old polls.  We have two polls recent showing two different results.  I asked a question about Fleming becuase I never heard of that polling company before.  I stated the race was a tossup, but I think at this point it favors Fogarty because of everythhing Cacerri has to overcome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I am not contradictary. All I am saying is that Fogarty may have the advantage at the moment, but with other polls showing Carcieri with the lead I wouldn't bet for sure that the lead for Fogarty will translate into a victory on election especially if Chafee wins the primary. And Carcieri is right at 50% approval ratings that is not a sure bet for defeat no matter how many victories in other places the Dems run up.

[Eraserhead]

This poll is wrong I believe the Fleming poll that had Carcieri up by 4 pts. RI likes to balance the Dem senate with a republican governor.

Overton did you become a Republican recently? Every thread I look at you seem to believe the Republican is ahead and/or will most likely win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, but when the country's attention is focused on 911 and not the war on Iraq it only helps republicans.

[Eraserhead]

No, but when the country's attention is focused on 911 and not the war on Iraq it only helps republicans.

Sure 9-11 helps Republicans but I don't think there is any question that Iraq helps the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both things will play out but the Republicans have closed the gap. It will be interesting if the Dems could whether the storm and open up the lead. They can't just win on Iraq anymore, because the GOP have narrowed the lead, they need to focus back on economic issues.