How would Rory Stewart have done in the London mayoral election?

[Geoffrey Howe]

How would Rory Stewart have done, assuming a 2020 election as planned? Discuss with maps.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He'd be fighting with Niko Omilana for the best performing independent.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Assuming he gathers momentum and runs a very good campaign, here’s my ‘best scenario’ for him:

Sweeps the pro-EU Tory vote and much of the Lib Dem vote. Does very well amongst the Cameron Tories. I can see some of the more centrist Labour supporters going for him, or even some of the Islington types. Does very well in Primrose Hill. The Lib Dems stand down and endorse Stewart.

He might also get an apolitical protest vote. I think in local elections like these a lot of people don’t really understand what ‘the issues’ are. My suspicion is that a lot of the Green vote is essentially this: I don’t know what they stand for/they are both bad and I like the environment so I’ll just vote Green. I can see him doing well amongst this group in London.

The Tories run a more hard-right candidate. Run of the mill Tories, if not Stewart enthusiasts, aren’t too impressed by this and Stewart becomes the de facto centre right candidate getting a lot of the mainstream right. The Tories are reduced to a rump loyal vote and Tory Brexiteers in places like Havering.

Stewart does less well amongst ethnic minorities, particularly the rock-solid red Muslim vote. Khan actually did quite badly amongst ethnic minorities and I don’t know whether this was dislike of him or Shaun Bailey managing to enthuse them. So I’ll just say Stewart gets a decent enough performance amongst these groups.

Khan, then, gets the ethnic minority vote plus the left wing - but not stereotypical bien pensant centre-lefts in places like Primrose Hill.


Stewart: 38%
Khan: 37%
Tory: 12%

Much of the Tory vote transfers to Stewart, but Khan gets some Green and independent support.

Sort of plucking numbers out of thin air (they don’t really add up)
Khan-Tory-Stewart

City of Westminster
31% 14% 45%
Kensington and Chelsea
24% 16% 50%
Hammersmith and Fulham
34% 9% 45%
Wandsworth
36% 10% 43%
Lambeth
48% 2% 31%
Southwark
49% 2% 30%
Tower Hamlets
54% 2% 25%
Hackney
57% 1% 22%
Islington
44% 3% 37%
Camden
40% 5% 39%
Brent
47% 5% 33%
Ealing
43% 7% 40%
Hounslow
38% 7% 42%
Richmond upon Thames
16% 14% 60%
Kingston upon Thames
17% 16% 57%
Merton
34% 9% 44%
Sutton
24% 22% 37%
Croydon
31% 16% 43%
Bromley
21% 24% 42%
Lewisham
48% 3% 34%
Greenwich
38% 6% 38%
Bexley
20% 31% 33%
Havering
17% 37% 30%
Barking and Dagenham
38% 22% 25%
Redbridge
38% 12% 37%
Newham
56% 1% 22%
Waltham Forest
42% 10% 37%
Haringey
47% 4% 38%
Enfield
35% 12% 38%
Barnet
29% 14% 46%
Harrow
30% 16% 37%
Hillingdon
30% 18% 37%
City of London
34% 5% 50%


Here's a map:




Stewart vote:




Khan vote:




Tory vote: