Predict FL-GOV 2022 margins

[David Hume]

DeSantis +1

Dude Crist lost to the way less popular Rick Scott in 2014 already. He (or anyone else) isn’t getting within 7 points in this race.

DeSantis only managed to beat a socialist black gay meth-addled mayor by less than a point and you think he'd beat Charlie Crist by 15? gtfo

DeSantis was expected to lose by 7 points. He was nobody back then, but popular incumbent now.

[ElectionsGuy]

DeSantis vs Crist: Desantis wins 59-39

DeSantis vs Demings: Desantis wins 54-44

DeSantis vs Murphy: Murphy wins 49-48

DeSantis vs Fried: Fried wins 49-47

The ultimate candidate quality cringe.

[ElectionsGuy]

DeSantis +1

Dude Crist lost to the way less popular Rick Scott in 2014 already. He (or anyone else) isn’t getting within 7 points in this race.

DeSantis only managed to beat a socialist black gay meth-addled mayor by less than a point and you think he'd beat Charlie Crist by 15? gtfo

DeSantis was expected to lose by 7 points. He was nobody back then, but popular incumbent now.

He was literally a laughingstock of the entire media with the "monkey things up" comment and was constantly characterized as a bad candidate who would easily lose. Those same people aren't laughing at him now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis will win, but he isn't gonna be Prez since Biden appeals to the Rust belt

[Calthrina950]

DeSantis by 6-8% seems the most probable outcome to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis and Abbott win by 5/10 pts 55/45, it's a 303 map as Biden is at 51/49% Approvals as he is exactly where he was on Election night 51/46%

Same with Cuomo and Newsom

[AGA]

Somewhere around DeSantis +7, slightly smaller margin than Rubio's.

[MillennialModerate]

I want Nikki Fried to best DeSantis more than I want any non-federal result

[Senator Spark]

Ronald DeSantis 53%
Charlie Crist 46%

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

DeSantis has independent support.

[beesley]

DeSantis +7 on average, possibly +8 or +9 if Crist is the candidate and +5 or +6 if Fried is.

[chalmetteowl]

DeSantis vs Crist: Desantis wins 59-39

DeSantis vs Demings: Desantis wins 54-44

DeSantis vs Murphy: Murphy wins 49-48

DeSantis vs Fried: Fried wins 49-47

DeSantis has made himself pretty polarizing, but what leads to a big DeSantis win against establishment D's and a close race against more progressive D's when that's basically been the opposite of the D primaries in '16 and '20??

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are too overconfident in this race and Rs are losing on the Generic ballot by 10 pts they can lose OH, FL or IA Gov and Senate race you see what we did to Rs in NM 1, Crist will win by 1

[Real Texan Politics]

Rs are too overconfident in this race and Rs are losing on the Generic ballot by 10 pts they can lose OH, FL or IA Gov and Senate race you see what we did to Rs in NM 1, Crist will win by 1

2018 was D+8, there is absolutely no way that 2022 will be a D+10 year. I have full confidence in that.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

DeSantis vs Crist: Desantis wins 59-39

DeSantis vs Demings: Desantis wins 54-44

DeSantis vs Murphy: Murphy wins 49-48

DeSantis vs Fried: Fried wins 49-47

DeSantis has made himself pretty polarizing, but what leads to a big DeSantis win against establishment D's and a close race against more progressive D's when that's basically been the opposite of the D primaries in '16 and '20??

I certainly agree that the extreme variance of the margins in the original post is absurd, but Murphy is in the Blue Dog Caucus and I don't think Fried has much of an ideology beyond "weed good," so I wouldn't consider either to be any more progressive than Demings or Crist. (I mean, I guess Fried can do whatever she wants with her relatively blank slate, so I suppose I can't rule out the possibility of her transforming into the second coming of Bernie Sanders, but I don't find that particularly likely.)

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Because I don't think that any of the potential Democratic nominees are remotely likely to win, I would kinda like to see Fried win the nomination and run a 100% marijuana-focused campaign. It still is a super popular issue with the general electorate; of course, few voters hinge their votes on it when it comes to important offices, so this wouldn't work for her as well as it did for her 2018 race, but it would still be interesting to watch.

My guess is something like DeSantis +5 (while Rubio wins by 6 or 7). As others have mentioned, a Republican victory of more than high single digits is incredibly hard to imagine and would require some extraordinary further shifts in Miami-Dade and a reversion of trends in Hillsborough and Duval.