CT, RI, ME, NM, MN, OR: Rank these D-held governorships from most R to most D in 2022

[MT Treasurer]

In terms of margins, of course.

Mine:

1) ME - D+3
2) RI - D+4
3) NM - D+6
4) OR - D+6
5) MN - D+6.5
6) CT - D+8

[coloradocowboi]

All Likely D, closer to safe than lean. In order for the GOP, the best pickup opportunities are: MN/ME (less than 25% chance, D by 3-8), NM/RI (less than 10% chance, D by 7-12), CT/OR (less than 5% chance, D by 8-15)

[Meatball Ron]

I think your ratings are generally right, but Dems will probably do a bit better in RI and a bit worse in CT than you forecast.

The third time will probably not be the charm for Fung, and the GOP doesn't have anyone else credible besides Fung. His margin of defeat in 2014 (the best opportunity to flip) was ~4.5 points, and I suspect he would do worse this time around given national environment, his retread status, and likelihood of a nominee more popular than Raimondo was at the time. Dems probably win this race by at least 6

As for CT, Republicans have a better bench and Lamont seems unpopular, so I could see the race being closer.

It's also possible that both races go Dem by double digits, and that you and I are both overestimating the extent to which New England's infatuation with Republican Governors still exists in these two particular states.

[mds32]

I think your ratings are generally right, but Dems will probably do a bit better in RI and a bit worse in CT than you forecast.

The third time will probably not be the charm for Fung, and the GOP doesn't have anyone else credible besides Fung. His margin of defeat in 2014 (the best opportunity to flip) was ~4.5 points, and I suspect he would do worse this time around given national environment, his retread status, and likelihood of a nominee more popular than Raimondo was at the time. Dems probably win this race by at least 6

As for CT, Republicans have a better bench and Lamont seems unpopular, so I could see the race being closer.

It's also possible that both races go Dem by double digits, and that you and I are both overestimating the extent to which New England's infatuation with Republican Governors still exists in these two particular states.

I heard Fung is running for Treasurer and that Minority Leader Filippi will likely run for Governor instead?

[Chips]

1. OR
2. CT
3. MN
4. NM
5. ME
6. RI

[Meatball Ron]

I think your ratings are generally right, but Dems will probably do a bit better in RI and a bit worse in CT than you forecast.

The third time will probably not be the charm for Fung, and the GOP doesn't have anyone else credible besides Fung. His margin of defeat in 2014 (the best opportunity to flip) was ~4.5 points, and I suspect he would do worse this time around given national environment, his retread status, and likelihood of a nominee more popular than Raimondo was at the time. Dems probably win this race by at least 6

As for CT, Republicans have a better bench and Lamont seems unpopular, so I could see the race being closer.

It's also possible that both races go Dem by double digits, and that you and I are both overestimating the extent to which New England's infatuation with Republican Governors still exists in these two particular states.

I heard Fung is running for Treasurer and that Minority Leader Filippi will likely run for Governor instead?

Gotcha, I hadn't heard that, but I bet Fung has a better shot at Treasurer. People like him personally; they just don't want a GOP Governor.

Filippi will lose...