Why are the LibDems so strong in SW London?

[King of Kensington]

Lib Dems hold Kingston, Richmond Park and Twickenham.  Are they filled with "too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote Labour" types?  Duverger's Law just benefits LibDems in those particular seats?

[Alcibiades]

As is often the case with areas of Lib Dem strength, it seems to have emerged as a result of localised factors; although none of these seats were won by the Lib Dems until 1997, Liberal strength was already apparent at the council level in the 80s, and even earlier in the GLC, in the 70s. This combination of a Liberal tradition and these seats being some of the most pro-Remain and internationalist of anywhere in the country have made them strong for the Lib Dems in the past couple of elections.

More broadly, I would say this is one of the few areas anywhere in the South of England with a sizeable genuinely small-l liberal middle class. The Lib Dems have also been helped by these seats having an almost non-existent natural Labour base, so they have been able to consolidate the vast majority of the anti-Tory vote.

[mileslunn]

Partly also tactical voting.  Labour has no chance at winning there so most Labour voters tactically vote Liberal Democrats while some well to do centrist have Liberal Democrats as first choice, but are scared of Labour so in other constituencies vote Tory to stop Labour, but since Liberal Democrats can win, they will vote Liberal Democrat here.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Alcibiades’ post is good. Certainly nowadays the factors of Brexit on the one hand and Corbyn on the other helps.

But generally, I think it’s because the Liberals/LDs have long been the second party, and this perpetuates itself - left wing tactical voting. They are the second party because yes, it is full of middle class small l liberals who aren’t particularly inclined to vote Labour even if they are not Tory.

Also, I'm not sure about this 'too educated to vote Tory.' We will probably see more of this with Boris and Brexit, but before that I don't think the Tories have put off educated voters like Trump or even the pre-Trump GOP did. Labour does well amongst the educated, but I think that's largely because of age (more people going to university now) and other factors. David Cameron did very well in educated constituencies I think; certainly in London where the Labour Party in 2017 made big gains.

[King of Kensington]

I guess one factor is that area really lacks the London Labour base of minorities, council housing residents, hip and trendy young people, the "chattering classes" and so on.  It's more homogeneous, established liberally minded middle class, I guess.

[Zinneke]

SW still has some young hip and trendy parts, and also I think it's a bit of a cliché to think them all as wine drinking Fulham or rugby supporters. Roehampton for example used to be rough council estate territory then the uni students and some property developers took over. Brentford is also pretty mix of wwc and crossing into Brent Indian territory, Merton and Wombleland  despite the rep because of the tennis has working class areas. Massive Korean community in Motspur Park.

So not homogeneous.

[Alcibiades]

SW still has some young hip and trendy parts, and also I think it's a bit of a cliché to think them all as wine drinking Fulham or rugby supporters. Roehampton for example used to be rough council estate territory then the uni students and some property developers took over. Brentford is also pretty mix of wwc and crossing into Brent Indian territory, Merton and Wombleland  despite the rep because of the tennis has working class areas. Massive Korean community in Motspur Park.

So not homogeneous.

The Roehampton Estate is still fairly rough, although the surrounding area is more gentrified. Brentford is fairly different from the rest (of course not in any of these constituencies), and is mostly Labour. Wimbledon has more working class areas (particularly in South Wimbledon and Colliers Wood) than the SW Lib Dem seats, and this part of why it was held by Labour, and the Tories were able to just hold it at the last election on 38%, because the opposition was badly split between the Lib Dems and Labour. It is New Malden which has the big Korean community - anecdotally, they seem to be pretty Lib Dem.

You are definitely right - SW London is far more socially and ethnically mixed than, say, the Stockbroker Belt in Surrey.

[King of Kensington]

The borough of Richmond upon Thames was still 71% "white British" in 2011 (though almost certainly less now), higher than most of London but much lower than Surrey.  

It also has the lowest poverty rate in London.

https://www.trustforlondon.org.uk/data/poverty-borough/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SW still has some young hip and trendy parts, and also I think it's a bit of a cliché to think them all as wine drinking Fulham or rugby supporters. Roehampton for example used to be rough council estate territory then the uni students and some property developers took over. Brentford is also pretty mix of wwc and crossing into Brent Indian territory, Merton and Wombleland  despite the rep because of the tennis has working class areas. Massive Korean community in Motspur Park.

So not homogeneous.

Homogeneous can be seen as a relative thing. SW London is homogeneous compared to, say, some areas of Central London; the Stockbroker Belt is, taken together, homogeneous compared to SW London; and rural Norfolk and Lincolnshire are homogeneous compared to the Stockbroker Belt.
So it's really yes and no.

[YL]

Also, I'm not sure about this 'too educated to vote Tory.' We will probably see more of this with Boris and Brexit, but before that I don't think the Tories have put off educated voters like Trump or even the pre-Trump GOP did. Labour does well amongst the educated, but I think that's largely because of age (more people going to university now) and other factors. David Cameron did very well in educated constituencies I think; certainly in London where the Labour Party in 2017 made big gains.

I remember seeing a plot (which I can't lay hands on now; I think it was for 2017 but am not sure) showing Labour support by age for both graduates and non-graduates; the Labour shares were similar for both in the youngest age groups but the decline in Labour support with age was steeper for non-graduates.  So educated voters have developed a Labour lean, but obviously it's not gone as far as in the US.  And yes it might not have been there at all in 2015, when the Tories were still winning in places like Battersea.

(A plot of the Tory shares would probably be more informative for this discussion, but you'd think the Lib Dem vote would be even more biased towards the educated.)

[Geoffrey Howe]

SW still has some young hip and trendy parts, and also I think it's a bit of a cliché to think them all as wine drinking Fulham or rugby supporters. Roehampton for example used to be rough council estate territory then the uni students and some property developers took over. Brentford is also pretty mix of wwc and crossing into Brent Indian territory, Merton and Wombleland  despite the rep because of the tennis has working class areas. Massive Korean community in Motspur Park.

So not homogeneous.

The Roehampton Estate is still fairly rough, although the surrounding area is more gentrified. Brentford is fairly different from the rest (of course not in any of these constituencies), and is mostly Labour. Wimbledon has more working class areas (particularly in South Wimbledon and Colliers Wood) than the SW Lib Dem seats, and this part of why it was held by Labour, and the Tories were able to just hold it at the last election on 38%, because the opposition was badly split between the Lib Dems and Labour. It is New Malden which has the big Korean community - anecdotally, they seem to be pretty Lib Dem.

You are definitely right - SW London is far more socially and ethnically mixed than, say, the Stockbroker Belt in Surrey.

Worth remembering that Roehampton is in Wandsworth, not Richmond/Kingston.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Also, I'm not sure about this 'too educated to vote Tory.' We will probably see more of this with Boris and Brexit, but before that I don't think the Tories have put off educated voters like Trump or even the pre-Trump GOP did. Labour does well amongst the educated, but I think that's largely because of age (more people going to university now) and other factors. David Cameron did very well in educated constituencies I think; certainly in London where the Labour Party in 2017 made big gains.

I remember seeing a plot (which I can't lay hands on now; I think it was for 2017 but am not sure) showing Labour support by age for both graduates and non-graduates; the Labour shares were similar for both in the youngest age groups but the decline in Labour support with age was steeper for non-graduates.  So educated voters have developed a Labour lean, but obviously it's not gone as far as in the US.  And yes it might not have been there at all in 2015, when the Tories were still winning in places like Battersea.

(A plot of the Tory shares would probably be more informative for this discussion, but you'd think the Lib Dem vote would be even more biased towards the educated.)

Yes - I suspect a lot of that has to do with tuition fees.

[CumbrianLefty]

And recently the LibDems made big advances in Wimbledon, which borders this "yellow triangle".

[Geoffrey Howe]

SW still has some young hip and trendy parts, and also I think it's a bit of a cliché to think them all as wine drinking Fulham or rugby supporters. Roehampton for example used to be rough council estate territory then the uni students and some property developers took over. Brentford is also pretty mix of wwc and crossing into Brent Indian territory, Merton and Wombleland  despite the rep because of the tennis has working class areas. Massive Korean community in Motspur Park.

So not homogeneous.

The Roehampton Estate is still fairly rough, although the surrounding area is more gentrified. Brentford is fairly different from the rest (of course not in any of these constituencies), and is mostly Labour. Wimbledon has more working class areas (particularly in South Wimbledon and Colliers Wood) than the SW Lib Dem seats, and this part of why it was held by Labour, and the Tories were able to just hold it at the last election on 38%, because the opposition was badly split between the Lib Dems and Labour. It is New Malden which has the big Korean community - anecdotally, they seem to be pretty Lib Dem.

You are definitely right - SW London is far more socially and ethnically mixed than, say, the Stockbroker Belt in Surrey.

Shaun Bailey came within 2 votes of winning Roehampton, btw.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Are they filled with "too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote Labour" types? 

Pretty much. I attended college in Richmond for a year and it was very much leafy middle class liberal. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

TO what extend do the middle class liberal exist anymore ? Given that Labour absorbed a lot of white collar voters under blair and Tories took another chunk under the cameron.

[Geoffrey Howe]

TO what extend do the middle class liberal exist anymore ? Given that Labour absorbed a lot of white collar voters under blair and Tories took another chunk under the cameron.

We were talking about small-l liberals. As for Liberal Democrats, they exist in large numbers in places like this, and around the Home Counties more seasonally.