Will 2024 have a relatively stable electoral map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Generally, it seems like when an incumbent runs for re-election, the electoral map is less prone to crazy large scale swings than when both canidates on the ballot are refreshed (2004-2008 and 2012-2016 swings were wild compared to 2008-2012 or 2016-2020 swings). For the sake of this question, assume Biden runs for re-election and Trump is not his Republican opponent. Even though Biden is the incumbent, the 2020 election I think many would argue more revolved around Trump, and his unique governing style rather than Biden as a canidate. Could we once again have double digit statewide swings in 2024 that completely alter how we look at the EC map, or do you expect things to remain pretty simillar to how they are now with some slight improvements here and there?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have a 2022 Election map scenario yet, once we find out about if the Ds can win OH, IA and NC in 2022 we will know about expanding the map

If Rs think in 2024 D's can't expand the map beyond 278 battleground, they are in for a surprise and Biden is at 59% Approvals not 40%

The Economy is recovering from this Pandemic and Biden has done alot more than Trump whom just like Bush W passed an unaffordable tax cut for rich and Trump is being INDICTED as we soeak

[Chips]

Depends on circumstances really.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA, OH, NC and FL are in flux, and 2022/ won't be your map for sure and Biden was competetive in these states, Trump overperformed in them prior to Insurrectionists

They're not MO, AL, TN and KY, they are R based battleground states that we won them in a 5.0 PVI in 2008/12

[pbrower2a]

Obviously this is unscientific... but with 86 votes we get the following depiction of relative safety of the states:

 

Alaska in the same group with Iowa and Ohio? I find that hard to believe.

I doubt that anyone doubts that my depiction of DC, ME-01, NE-01, NE-03 as extremely out of reach is valid.

83-85 (there is no unanimous) 80%
77-82  60% saturation
60-76 50% saturation
36-59  40% saturation
7-16 20% saturation

It's up to about 100 votes, but I am not updating this. The proportions seem about the same now.

Only seven states were decided by less than 4% (margin of error in polling, which is all states in gray and Florida), and if any states change their vote from 2020 to 2024 it will most likely be among those. Any others either way indicate major change in either the partisan alignments of states or that the 2024 Presidential election will not be close.

It has been over twenty years (OK, 25 as of November 2021) in which we have not had a Presidential election that hasn't been close most of the way... 2008 became a near-landslide but it was narrow about a month before the election, and media generally thought that it would be close. I recall Tom Brocaw saying as the polls closed on the West Coast and sealed that election that the popular-vote totals for Obama and McCain were very close but that would not be so after the mass of votes came in from California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington...

Let's remember this: Joe Biden got 51.26% of the popular vote in 2020, which is higher than that of Reagan in 1980 against a failed President seeking re-election (if you are a Republican, then face it: Donald Trump is a Presidential failure. A President who is at all a success gets re-elected even if he is doing things that will get the country into big trouble later (Dubya -- wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the financial bubble).     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously this is unscientific... but with 86 votes we get the following depiction of relative safety of the states:

 

Alaska in the same group with Iowa and Ohio? I find that hard to believe.

I doubt that anyone doubts that my depiction of DC, ME-01, NE-01, NE-03 as extremely out of reach is valid.

83-85 (there is no unanimous) 80%
77-82  60% saturation
60-76 50% saturation
36-59  40% saturation
7-16 20% saturation

It's up to about 100 votes, but I am not updating this. The proportions seem about the same now.

Only seven states were decided by less than 4% (margin of error in polling, which is all states in gray and Florida), and if any states change their vote from 2020 to 2024 it will most likely be among those. Any others either way indicate major change in either the partisan alignments of states or that the 2024 Presidential election will not be close.

It has been over twenty years (OK, 25 as of November 2021) in which we have not had a Presidential election that hasn't been close most of the way... 2008 became a near-landslide but it was narrow about a month before the election, and media generally thought that it would be close. I recall Tom Brocaw saying as the polls closed on the West Coast and sealed that election that the popular-vote totals for Obama and McCain were very close but that would not be so after the mass of votes came in from California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington...

Let's remember this: Joe Biden got 51.26% of the popular vote in 2020, which is higher than that of Reagan in 1980 against a failed President seeking re-election (if you are a Republican, then face it: Donald Trump is a Presidential failure. A President who is at all a success gets re-elected even if he is doing things that will get the country into big trouble later (Dubya -- wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the financial bubble).     

It depends on 2022, if IA, NC, OH and FL turn back purple

Grayson is only 5 ptts behind Rubio, Ryan is tied in OH and IA and NC have great candidates for Senator, we  need 53 seats plus the H to pass DC Statehood and that involves 2/3 from IA, FL, NC and OH since GA is going to a Runoff

[Nightcore Nationalist]

If 16-20 state trends are anything to go by, then yes.  There are really only 6 states that were fiercely competitive in 2020 and that probably won't change by much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's don't need the South to win a Prez Election, I have been saying this, but if we want to have Majorities in Congress they need Latino Districts in the South to win, all it takes is to solidify the 278 blue wall

[S019]

It's quite likely, most states are safe and the only truly competitive states would be NV/AZ/TX/MN/WI/MI/PA/ME/NH/NC/GA/FL/NE-02 and some of these are stretches that are not pure coin flips, but even if you treat all of them as tossups, you get:




Once leans are added, this is probably closer to the truth:



Then you'd consider the fact that states like MI and PA will probably vote left of states like NC or FL, basically even with mass popular vote fluctuations, the number of possible tossups has a hard limit, unless Republicans or Democrats start winning by like 10, no state not in tan on the first map will be remotely competitive.