If Texas had 77-80% turnout could Biden have flipped it

[Motorcity]

Florida had 77% turnout. Arizona had 80% turnout. The important trio WI/MI/PA had around 71% turnout. North Carolina had 75%

Texas turnout was 67%, the national average (same with Georgia).

If Texas had 77-80% could Biden had won?

[TML]

It really depends on where the additional turnout is from.

For example, Pennsylvania had turnout increases in both 2016 and 2020, but in 2016 most of the additional turnout was in rural, white-majority counties (with relatively few voters with higher education), whereas in 2020 it was mostly in suburban, college-educated counties. This resulted in a Republican victory in 2016 and a Democratic victory in 2020.

[Tender Branson]

No.

Trump won by 600.000 votes in TX.

An additional 10-15% in turnout would mean an additional 2 million or so votes.

Biden would have needed these additional voters to vote ca. 2:1 for him to make up the gap.

Higher turnout doesn’t really favour the Dems that much, certainly not by a 2:1 margin.

Besides, higher turnout only favours Dems in highly educated areas/states. TX is nowhere near „highly educated“. Therefore the surge voters would be 50/50.

[Matty]

Where is this idea coming from that high turnout was a net negative for trump in 2020?

The state with the highest increase in turnout from 2016, hawaii, also saw the largest R swing of any state.

As dave wasserman notes, 2020 should dispel the notion that high turnout automatically helps dems.

[Tender Branson]

Where is this idea coming from that high turnout was a net negative for trump in 2020?

The state with the highest increase in turnout from 2016, hawaii, also saw the largest R swing of any state.

As dave wasserman notes, 2020 should dispel the notion that high turnout automatically helps dems.

Yeah, this is a nonsense talking point.

There are as many arguments that high turnout benefitted Trump, as there are arguments that it benefited Biden.

[Chips]

It really depends on where the additional turnout is from.

For example, Pennsylvania had turnout increases in both 2016 and 2020, but in 2016 most of the additional turnout was in rural, white-majority counties (with relatively few voters with higher education), whereas in 2020 it was mostly in suburban, college-educated counties. This resulted in a Republican victory in 2016 and a Democratic victory in 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It really depends on where the additional turnout is from.

For example, Pennsylvania had turnout increases in both 2016 and 2020, but in 2016 most of the additional turnout was in rural, white-majority counties (with relatively few voters with higher education), whereas in 2020 it was mostly in suburban, college-educated counties. This resulted in a Republican victory in 2016 and a Democratic victory in 2020.

[Samof94]

Where is this idea coming from that high turnout was a net negative for trump in 2020?

The state with the highest increase in turnout from 2016, hawaii, also saw the largest R swing of any state.

As dave wasserman notes, 2020 should dispel the notion that high turnout automatically helps dems.

Hawaii is about as competitive as Wyoming.

[Socani]

Not really, at most only reducing the margin of defeat to 2 to 3%