Mitchell research Michigan - Tie

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1798389135650037934?s=46

Biden - 48
Trump - 48

Last one was Trump +2

[dspNY]

Mitchell overrated Tudor Dixon by a lot in 2022. They had a 2 point Whitmer lead for governor over Tudor Dixon and Whitmer won by 10.5. Considering that a tie with this pollster is good for Biden

[axiomsofdominion]

Tie from an R pollster plus there was movement post verdict. Pretty good for Biden, but not definitive.

[kwabbit]

Mitchell overrated Tudor Dixon by a lot in 2022. They had a 2 point Whitmer lead for governor over Tudor Dixon and Whitmer won by 10.5. Considering that a tie with this pollster is good for Biden

They also had Biden +7 in 2020, which demonstrates why you can’t predict a pollster’s error based on the previous cycle. They’ve been near the MI average this cycle, so I don’t think we can comment on their bias this cycle.

[Minnesota Mike]

Mitchell overrated Tudor Dixon by a lot in 2022. They had a 2 point Whitmer lead for governor over Tudor Dixon and Whitmer won by 10.5. Considering that a tie with this pollster is good for Biden

They also had Biden +7 in 2020, which demonstrates why you can’t predict a pollster’s error based on the previous cycle. They’ve been near the MI average this cycle, so I don’t think we can comment on their bias this cycle.

Thank you. This a pet peeve of mine and both sides do it. Just because a pollster missed in one direction last time does not mean they will miss in the same direction or by the same amount this time.