Why VT and NH are so different politically?

[David Hume]

Both very small New England states, both very white and rural, and used to be GOP stronghold before the 90s. Yet one of them became deep blue, the other a D leaning swing state.

If I have to guess, I would probably guess that NH is the deep blue one, due to closeness to Boston.

[Tintrlvr]

For what it's worth, they were only similar politically for a relatively short period of time in the 60s and 70s, and the norm has usually been that they vote quite differently. New Hampshire was much more Republican than Vermont in the 1980 Presidential election and has continued to be much more Republican than Vermont since then. In 1976 (and also in 1968 and 1972) they voted almost exactly the same way, and the differences were small in 1964. But in 1960 and earlier New Hampshire was always much more Democratic than Vermont, a pattern which holds true even to before the Civil War and even back into the era of the Whigs (look at the 1840 Presidential election, e.g.).

The basic answer then clearly lies in how the parties realigned from the 60s through the 80s and what influence that had on the states' voting patterns. I'll let others comment on that.

[H. Ross Peron]

New Hampshire had a large Scotch Irish population from the colonial era while Vermont was more uniformly Yankee.

[Sol]

Both very small New England states, both very white and rural, and used to be GOP stronghold before the 90s. Yet one of them became deep blue, the other a D leaning swing state.

If I have to guess, I would probably guess that NH is the deep blue one, due to closeness to Boston.

It's actually the closeness to Boston in many ways which makes New Hampshire competitive--the parts of greater Boston in the state are basically far out exurbs and vote accordingly (which means that they vote 55%R-45%D because New England is different).

New Hampshire also has some rust-belty areas similar to parts of Maine--thinking in particular of Coos County. These zones have also gone more and more Republican as Republicans have recovered among non-evangelicals and among unionized white workers.

The Lakes Region also is fairly Republican, though I don't have a great understanding of what makes it Republican when other tourist/summer house type places in the region are firmly D.

[Vice President Christian Man]

A lot of hippies moved to Vermont, while a lot of conservative suburbanites from Massachusetts moved to NH.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

New Hampshire is very different from Vermont. One is extremely rural and has no significant metro, while the other is the tail end of the largest metro in North America (bos/wash). The areas of New Hampshire that are most like Vermont (Cheshire, Grafton, Sullivan, Coos) do tend to vote like it

[David Hume]

A lot of hippies moved to Vermont, while a lot of conservative suburbanites from Massachusetts moved to NH.

The total number of hippies is estimated at 37k, not enough to explain the huge D lead.

[David Hume]

New Hampshire had a large Scotch Irish population from the colonial era while Vermont was more uniformly Yankee.

Scotch Irish are more pro D, right?

[Del Tachi]

NH is a Boston exurb while VT is a playground for NYC expats

[Calthrina950]

NH is a Boston exurb while VT is a playground for NYC expats

Bernie Sanders himself is the most prominent example of this. As for New Hampshire, I recall reading somewhere that taxes were and still are a major issue there, and that the state received considerable numbers of white-collar and anti-tax migrants in earlier decades, which is why it was such a solidly Republican bastion during Reagan's time.

For what it's worth, they were only similar politically for a relatively short period of time in the 60s and 70s, and the norm has usually been that they vote quite differently. New Hampshire was much more Republican than Vermont in the 1980 Presidential election and has continued to be much more Republican than Vermont since then. In 1976 (and also in 1968 and 1972) they voted almost exactly the same way, and the differences were small in 1964. But in 1960 and earlier New Hampshire was always much more Democratic than Vermont, a pattern which holds true even to before the Civil War and even back into the era of the Whigs (look at the 1840 Presidential election, e.g.).

The basic answer then clearly lies in how the parties realigned from the 60s through the 80s and what influence that had on the states' voting patterns. I'll let others comment on that.

You can actually go all the way back to 1828. Adams swept his native region of New England against Jackson, but he won New Hampshire by "only" 54-46% while carrying Vermont by a landslide 75-25% margin. In 1832, Vermont went for the Anti-Masonic candidate William Wirt, but Jackson won New Hampshire 57-43%. New Hampshire and Maine subsequently remained Democratic strongholds at the presidential level through the 1852 election (aside from Harrison's narrow 1840 victory in Maine), before turning into Republican bastions that didn't vote Democratic again until 1912.

[PSOL]

A lot of hippies moved to Vermont, while a lot of conservative suburbanites from Massachusetts moved to NH.

The total number of hippies is estimated at 37k, not enough to explain the huge D lead.

Those 37k were incredibly politically active, interconnected, and also uniform in wishes to enjoy a socialist utopia in an area with less of a pushback from Wall Street. It helps that for the longest time they had one party, the LUP, which successfully “indigenized” itself to native Vermont culture and “local” member base.

A similar story in NH, but they primarily just joined the GOP.

[lfromnj]

Yup NH also had the relatively industrial cities of Manchester/Nashua with large Catholic populations. Its why the congressional districts are what they are, likely an attempt to dilute Catholic/Democratic influence.

[David Hume]

A lot of hippies moved to Vermont, while a lot of conservative suburbanites from Massachusetts moved to NH.

The total number of hippies is estimated at 37k, not enough to explain the huge D lead.

Those 37k were incredibly politically active, interconnected, and also uniform in wishes to enjoy a socialist utopia in an area with less of a pushback from Wall Street. It helps that for the longest time they had one party, the LUP, which successfully “indigenized” itself to native Vermont culture and “local” member base.

A similar story in NH, but they primarily just joined the GOP.

Even so, it's hard to believe those are enough to flip a state from red to deep blue. If say 74k R activists move there now, do you think they can flip it back?

[Cokeland Saxton]

Both very small New England states, both very white and rural, and used to be GOP stronghold before the 90s. Yet one of them became deep blue, the other a D leaning swing state.

If I have to guess, I would probably guess that NH is the deep blue one, due to closeness to Boston.

It's the opposite. Vermont is very blue,  NH is basically Tilt D.

[PSOL]

A lot of hippies moved to Vermont, while a lot of conservative suburbanites from Massachusetts moved to NH.

The total number of hippies is estimated at 37k, not enough to explain the huge D lead.

Those 37k were incredibly politically active, interconnected, and also uniform in wishes to enjoy a socialist utopia in an area with less of a pushback from Wall Street. It helps that for the longest time they had one party, the LUP, which successfully “indigenized” itself to native Vermont culture and “local” member base.

A similar story in NH, but they primarily just joined the GOP.

Even so, it's hard to believe those are enough to flip a state from red to deep blue. If say 74k R activists move there now, do you think they can flip it back?

No, as Right wing activists aren’t willing to go the lengths in indigenization as left wing activists must do in order to sustain the movement. They are also less prone in effective uses of resources and their presence would fail less hard than Libertarian colonization, but still fail.

I don’t think you get how much into socialism and social change those ~40k were, and how in a smaller pond relative to NYC they would see likeminded people in a sea of opportunity.

[NOVA Green]

A lot of hippies moved to Vermont, while a lot of conservative suburbanites from Massachusetts moved to NH.

The total number of hippies is estimated at 37k, not enough to explain the huge D lead.

Those 37k were incredibly politically active, interconnected, and also uniform in wishes to enjoy a socialist utopia in an area with less of a pushback from Wall Street. It helps that for the longest time they had one party, the LUP, which successfully “indigenized” itself to native Vermont culture and “local” member base.

A similar story in NH, but they primarily just joined the GOP.

Even so, it's hard to believe those are enough to flip a state from red to deep blue. If say 74k R activists move there now, do you think they can flip it back?

Sure--- and we can def grab 74k to move each into Wyoming and Montana to make SEN & GOV elections move our way, and for bonus points another 75k in each of the Dakotas....

Wish we had a nest egg for retirement and personally like the Great Plains so not there yet, although NH /VT / ME would def be contenders on the mix.

[MillennialModerate]

What makes NH different from many of our national trends is a lot of its rurals vote Blue while a decent amount of its suburban-ish areas vote red.

In fact the bluest towns in 2020 were Dixville in the far North and more relevant: Orford, Lyme and Hanover - which straddle the Vermont border in the central part of the state. So obviously there is some alignment with Vermont politically.

[Blair]

Bill Bryson described it best by saying Vermont is full of twee village inns and diary farms, where as New Hampshire has men in pick-up trucks who go hunting.