Rasmussen: Burns (R) and Tester (D) tied now

[Keystone Phil]

This is our second most vulnerable seat and while I believe that Tester still has the lead, another poll showing that this is within a few points means that Burns is on his way back into this thing.

[Eraserhead]

So screaming at firefighters helped Burns? God, how sad is that? Montana you are worrying me again. Don't let us down in the fall.

[Giant Saguaro]

I don't know that Tester is any kind of threat to the 2nd amendment (being that Tester is a rancher from a back-hole place called Big Sandy), but the NRA is stepping up its campaign for Burns big time, but only on that issue. That's all the NRA really cares about and Montana is a big gun state, of course.

No, Burns isn't my favorite Republican and he probably isn't Montana's either, but expect the scandles to only carry so much water. It will be interesting to see what happens when Montana folks really get serious about this and it gets into September and October.

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't know that Tester is any kind of threat to the 2nd amendment (being that Tester is a rancher from a back-hole place called Big Sandy), but the NRA is stepping up its campaign for Burns big time, but only on that issue. That's all the NRA really cares about and Montana is a big gun state, of course.

Tester is very pro-gun. The NRA is wasting its time supporting Burns.

[Rob]

This was never going to be a blowout- Montana is just too Republican (for now, at least).

51-49 Tester win in November.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I don't know.  I'm sure my prediction will be brought up by partisan Republicans but I still think when it comes to it we will be surprised by how well Tester does.  I think he could win within the regions of 52%-54% to 47%-45% for Burns, those numbers are about where Burns is in approval ratings.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know that Tester is any kind of threat to the 2nd amendment (being that Tester is a rancher from a back-hole place called Big Sandy), but the NRA is stepping up its campaign for Burns big time, but only on that issue. That's all the NRA really cares about and Montana is a big gun state, of course.

Tester is very pro-gun. The NRA is wasting its time supporting Burns.

NRA policy is to support candidates that support their agenda no matter how pro gun the opposition is.

[HardRCafé]

Tester is very pro-gun. The NRA is wasting its time supporting Burns.

A pro-gun Tester in a Democrat-majority Senate would not amount to a hill of beans.

[AuH2O]

Montanans know a vote for Tester is partially a vote for MoveOn, DailyKos, etc. because a lowly freshman Senator doesn't have much power on his own. His main role would be to increase the power of the Democrats in the Senate, who are largely anti-gun and otherwise in conflict with Montana's ideology.

If they were unaware of that, Schweitzer would have won, and Tester would win by 15. But, unluckily for Democrats, people will hold their noses and send back Burns.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I disagree.  This year's political climate - antiincumbent, change for change's sake anger means Burns is already vulnerable.  He is looking much like the Jim Bunning of 2006.  Bunning won by 51%-49% as Bush was carrying Kentucky 59%-39%.  If Bunning were up this year, he would be defeated as will Burns.  I know people are Republican supporters, but jumping on one poll that doesn't even show a lead for their candidate seems desperate. 

[AuH2O]

There are a lot of dynamics at work. But Montana is a conservative state, whatever kos or anyone else wants to say. Nixon won it 3 times. Dole won it. Most elections, it's been a blowout. Schweitzer was elected Gov? Uh, big deal. Check Massachussetts... a fairly long string of Republican Governors. This is NATIONAL politics, as well as local.

And not that much has really changed. Conservatives everywhere are disenchanted, that's true. But do they trust Democrats? No, not at all. Montanans laugh at Burns, but they dislike the national Democratic Party. Schweitzer, a very strong candidate, was able to get close-- much like Mark Warner gave John Warner a fight in VA to launch his career-- but that was a high water mark.

I hope everyone that is convinced Tester will win has hit up tradesports.

[jokerman]

And not that much has really changed. Conservatives everywhere are disenchanted, that's true. But do they trust Democrats? No, not at all. Montanans laugh at Burns, but they dislike the national Democratic Party.

Right they dislike and distrust national Democrats.  Local populists like Tester and Schweitzer, on the other hand, can be very popular.

[Downwinder]

I don't know if I could even peg Montana as a conservative state; it's more libertarian than conservative.  It is a very small-business and agriculture oriented state, 2nd amendment rights are very important, but it isn't religiously conservative in the same way as Utah, Kansas and South Carolina.  The analogy about Montana I always use, is your neighbor won't care if you are gay or had an abortion, as long as you don't care about the arsenal of guns they have in their house.  Montanans aren't stupid people, and they won't blindly do as the republican party suggests, and send a scandal ridden senator back to Washington.

[Flying Dog]

(D)TESTER 52%
(R)BURNS 48%

[CultureKing]

I don't know if I could even peg Montana as a conservative state; it's more libertarian than conservative.  It is a very small-business and agriculture oriented state, 2nd amendment rights are very important, but it isn't religiously conservative in the same way as Utah, Kansas and South Carolina.  The analogy about Montana I always use, is your neighbor won't care if you are gay or had an abortion, as long as you don't care about the arsenal of guns they have in their house.  Montanans aren't stupid people, and they won't blindly do as the republican party suggests, and send a scandal ridden senator back to Washington.

No... I would have to disagree, I think Montana is a pretty conservative state, though I will agree that it has some random quirks. Still it is pretty simular to North Dakota and, say, Idaho.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love how Goldie thinks Tester can't win because people will associate him with him MoveOn and all that even in this national climate (which I suppose isn't that extreme of a view even though polls show otherwise), but Kennedy can win in our state in this national climate when he's a complete rubber stamp for the Bush agenda which is just as hated as that stuff is in Montana at the moment, if not more.