What will happen to Russia after Putin dies?

[Alben Barkley]

The future of Russia doesn’t seem very clear at all. Right now Putin’s managing to keep the state held somewhat together compared to what it was like in the 90s, but he’s not gonna be around forever. So what happens when he goes? Does Russia finally become a true democracy? Will the oligarchs and mob take over? Will there just be absolute chaos? Is there some kind of successor in line to try to continue Putinism? Will Russia basically collapse and become a puppet state for China?

Obviously hoping for the first scenario, but I could see any of these outcomes.

[CumbrianLefty]

The future of Russia doesn’t seem very clear at all. Right now Putin’s managing to keep the state held somewhat together compared to what it was like in the 90s, but he’s not gonna be around forever. So what happens when he goes? Does Russia finally become a true democracy? Will the oligarchs and mob take over? Will there just be absolute chaos? Is there some kind of successor in line to try to continue Putinism? Will Russia basically collapse and become a puppet state for China?

Obviously hoping for the first scenario, but I could see any of these outcomes.

Wouldn't hold my breath with regard to that one, unfortunately.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Realistic best case is that Putin grooms a competent successor.

Putin is terrible, but I don't think people in the West realize what good reasons many Russians have for supporting him over most of the available alternatives.

[Samof94]

The future of Russia doesn’t seem very clear at all. Right now Putin’s managing to keep the state held somewhat together compared to what it was like in the 90s, but he’s not gonna be around forever. So what happens when he goes? Does Russia finally become a true democracy? Will the oligarchs and mob take over? Will there just be absolute chaos? Is there some kind of successor in line to try to continue Putinism? Will Russia basically collapse and become a puppet state for China?

Obviously hoping for the first scenario, but I could see any of these outcomes.

Wouldn't hold my breath with regard to that one, unfortunately.

How likely is the last one?

[smoltchanov]

Realistic best case is that Putin grooms a competent successor.

Putin is terrible, but I don't think people in the West realize what good reasons many Russians have for supporting him over most of the available alternatives.

I never voted for Putin in his 20+ years career on highest level, but, as Russian citizen, who, undoubtely, knows Russian people better then most people in the West, will attest that he (unfortunately) is the politician best representing views and positions of majority of Russian people. So, by this criterion, we live in almost perfect "democracy")))). Yes, about 55-60% of Russian people will agree with most his positions (especially - in foreign policy field)... In fact, many problems of 1990th were caused by the fact, that "western type democracy" has extremely weak roots and almost no traditions in Russia... Moscow intellectuals - another matter. But Russia as a whole - no. And Putin skilfully exploited that all these years (and continues to do so...)

[CumbrianLefty]

The future of Russia doesn’t seem very clear at all. Right now Putin’s managing to keep the state held somewhat together compared to what it was like in the 90s, but he’s not gonna be around forever. So what happens when he goes? Does Russia finally become a true democracy? Will the oligarchs and mob take over? Will there just be absolute chaos? Is there some kind of successor in line to try to continue Putinism? Will Russia basically collapse and become a puppet state for China?

Obviously hoping for the first scenario, but I could see any of these outcomes.

Wouldn't hold my breath with regard to that one, unfortunately.

How likely is the last one?

Not terribly, I would say.

For me, the killer for "Western style democracy" in Russia was how quickly and completely it became equated with cronyism and corruption after the collapse of the USSR.

[smoltchanov]

The future of Russia doesn’t seem very clear at all. Right now Putin’s managing to keep the state held somewhat together compared to what it was like in the 90s, but he’s not gonna be around forever. So what happens when he goes? Does Russia finally become a true democracy? Will the oligarchs and mob take over? Will there just be absolute chaos? Is there some kind of successor in line to try to continue Putinism? Will Russia basically collapse and become a puppet state for China?

Obviously hoping for the first scenario, but I could see any of these outcomes.

Wouldn't hold my breath with regard to that one, unfortunately.

How likely is the last one?

Not terribly, I would say.

For me, the killer for "Western style democracy" in Russia was how quickly and completely it became equated with cronyism and corruption after the collapse of the USSR.

Not exactly. Cronism and corruption flourished even in Soviet time, though to the lesser extent, and Russians are, generally, accustomed to it (a lot of Russian proverbs are the proof). IMHO - the  reason was different: for most Russian people Russia is, undoubtely, a "superpower". As soon as West began to consider  (and treat) Russia as rather big and important player in world politics, but - NOT on par with US (and later - China) - the "western style democracy" in Russia was doomed. At least - for majority of Russian people.  Of course - this is only one factor, but - very important one...

[Sir Mohamed]

Realistic best case is that Putin grooms a competent successor.

Putin is terrible, but I don't think people in the West realize what good reasons many Russians have for supporting him over most of the available alternatives.

Agreed. My money would be Lavrov, the longtime foreign minister.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Not exactly. Cronism and corruption flourished even in Soviet time, though to the lesser extent, and Russians are, generally, accustomed to it (a lot of Russian proverbs are the proof). IMHO - the  reason was different: for most Russian people Russia is, undoubtely, a "superpower". As soon as West began to consider  (and treat) Russia as rather big and important player in world politics, but - NOT on par with US (and later - China) - the "western style democracy" in Russia was doomed. At least - for majority of Russian people.  Of course - this is only one factor, but - very important one...

Lol, what?

Under 90s after USSR's collapse the living standard plumbed as f**k, poverty rocketed and so on. Back then virtually no one cared about Foreign Policy or whether Russia was called superpower or not LMAO. It's always "the economy, stupid".


https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=RU



And this happened under Yeltsin who won re-election with help of interference/dirty tricks of US of Clintons. Well, Hillary learned what Karma means hard way. Learned from the best.

[Pick Up the Phone]

One is often well advised not to overestimate the importance of individuals (and I often found that Americans are particularly prone to this mistake, perhaps because of the highly personalized nature of U.S. politics). Systemic constraints and path dependencies are usually far more powerful than the Putins and Erdogans of this world.

My hunch: Someone else from within the governing elite will take over and continue the current course.

[smoltchanov]

Not exactly. Cronism and corruption flourished even in Soviet time, though to the lesser extent, and Russians are, generally, accustomed to it (a lot of Russian proverbs are the proof). IMHO - the  reason was different: for most Russian people Russia is, undoubtely, a "superpower". As soon as West began to consider  (and treat) Russia as rather big and important player in world politics, but - NOT on par with US (and later - China) - the "western style democracy" in Russia was doomed. At least - for majority of Russian people.  Of course - this is only one factor, but - very important one...

Lol, what?

Under 90s after USSR's collapse the living standard plumbed as f**k, poverty rocketed and so on. Back then virtually no one cared about Foreign Policy or whether Russia was called superpower or not LMAO. It's always "the economy, stupid".


https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=RU



And this happened under Yeltsin who won re-election with help of interference/dirty tricks of US of Clintons. Well, Hillary learned what Karma means hard way. Learned from the best.

So what? I know all this. And this DIDN'T lead to rejection of "western democracy" THEN. It happened much later. I traveld extensively in 1990th in both Russia and abroad, and feelings on both sides were much warmer, then now. DESPITE all that real problems and difficulties...

P.S. It's NOT ALWAYS "the economy, stupid")))). And honestly - looks more like standard government and present "system opposition" propaganda, which may be daily observed in large doses on Russian TV channels). Though no one disputes - that played SOME role: by some reasons large part of Russian population sincerely thought, that almost immediately after overthrow of Communist regime they will begin to live ... well, almost as in Switzerland (or, minimum - Slovenia))))) I could never understand - WHY??

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Not exactly. Cronism and corruption flourished even in Soviet time, though to the lesser extent, and Russians are, generally, accustomed to it (a lot of Russian proverbs are the proof). IMHO - the  reason was different: for most Russian people Russia is, undoubtely, a "superpower". As soon as West began to consider  (and treat) Russia as rather big and important player in world politics, but - NOT on par with US (and later - China) - the "western style democracy" in Russia was doomed. At least - for majority of Russian people.  Of course - this is only one factor, but - very important one...

Lol, what?

Under 90s after USSR's collapse the living standard plumbed as f**k, poverty rocketed and so on. Back then virtually no one cared about Foreign Policy or whether Russia was called superpower or not LMAO. It's always "the economy, stupid".




And this happened under Yeltsin who won re-election with help of interference/dirty tricks of US of Clintons. Well, Hillary learned what Karma means hard way. Learned from the best.

So what? I know all this. And this DIDN'T lead to rejection of "western democracy" THEN. It happened much later. I traveld extensively in 1990th in both Russia and abroad, and feelings on both sides were much warmer, then now. DESPITE all that real problems and difficulties...

P.S. It's NOT ALWAYS "the economy, stupid")))). And honestly - looks more like standard government and present "system opposition" propaganda, which may be daily observed in large doses on Russian TV channels). Though no one disputes - that played SOME role: by some reasons large part of Russian population sincerely thought, that almost immediately after overthrow of Communist regime they will begin to live ... well, almost as in Switzerland (or, minimum - Slovenia))))) I could never understand - WHY??

It kind of did. Russian has never had "western democracy" in first place, but after 90s the term "liberal democracy" and "liberals" became an insult. The absolute majority then preferred strong leader and stability over "individual freedoms".

No one expected to immediately get the living standards of Switzerland LMAO. Everyone though expected a life that is not a worse. When you instead get 5 years less life expectancy and a tenfold rise of the poverty rate to 30-40%, it's a whole different story.

[ingemann]

I think the wrong question is what happens when Putin dies and the correct question is what happens when fossil fuel prices collapses because of a shift to other sources of energy. Russia is not a terrible position as other fossil producer, thanks to other sources of raw materials, a better educated population, significant better functioning civil service and superior civil society. But without fossil fuel Russia will still lose a very important source of foreign currency, whether other exports can make for these lost profit is the question.

[AndyHogan14]

I don't know, and while his replacement could very well be worse than him, I would still very much like for him to catch a case of the dead, like ASAP.

[Samof94]

I don't know, and while his replacement could very well be worse than him, I would still very much like for him to catch a case of the dead, like ASAP.

A Maduro?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Realistic best case is that Putin grooms a competent successor.

Putin is terrible, but I don't think people in the West realize what good reasons many Russians have for supporting him over most of the available alternatives.

Agreed. My money would be Lavrov, the longtime foreign minister.

Lmao. Lavrov is 3 years older than Putin.

Shoygu has been long rumored as Putin's successor. With all the escalations, many experts think that next Pres will have to be well-connected to military/intelligence agencies. But it is not that much younger than Putin (65 vs 68 years).

[ElectionObserver]

Realistic best case is that Putin grooms a competent successor.

Putin is terrible, but I don't think people in the West realize what good reasons many Russians have for supporting him over most of the available alternatives.

Agreed. My money would be Lavrov, the longtime foreign minister.

Lmao. Lavrov is 3 years older than Putin.

Shoygu has been long rumored as Putin's successor. With all the escalations, many experts think that next Pres will have to be well-connected to military/intelligence agencies. But it is not that much younger than Putin (65 vs 68 years).

This article gives a fair list of likely candidates. Putin is unlikely to publicly name a successor until he goes though.
https://www.politico.eu/article/who-will-replace-valdimir-putin-russia-kremlin/

And isn't Lavrov more of a technocrat civil servant type  rather than a politician type?